On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio is getting high, but still outside this extreme territory. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Yet To Surpass +1 SD Line In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin is currently looking from the perspective of the MVRV Ratio. The “MVRV Ratio” is a popular indicator that, in short, tells us about how the value held by the investors as a whole compares against their initial investment. Related Reading: Toncoin Open Interest Spikes 33%—Will History Repeat With A Pullback? When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the holders are carrying more than they put in. In other words, they are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, the indicator being under the threshold suggests the overall network is underwater. The analytics firm has used the MVRV Ratio to define pricing bands that correspond to extreme deviations from the average investor profitability (that is, the mean value of the MVRV Ratio). These bands help point out periods where investor profits/losses are unusually high. Below is the chart shared by Glassnode in the report that shows the trend in these pricing bands for Bitcoin over the last few years. As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin price has been trading above the mean level of this model since a while now. Recently, the asset has also broken above the +0.5 standard deviations (SD) line. This line corresponds to the price at which the MVRV Ratio attains a value that’s 0.5 standard deviations above the all-time mean. At present, the level is situated around $100,200. The level that BTC is yet to surpass in this latest rally is the +1 SD one, located at $119,400. From the chart, it’s visible that the cryptocurrency breaking above this line has generally led to a top for its price. The explanation behind this pattern lies in the fact that the larger investor profits grow, the more tempted holders become to take them. At extreme deviations of the MVRV Ratio, selling pressure from holders giving in to this temptation becomes significant, hence why the asset approaches a long-term top. In the current cycle, Bitcoin has breached the +1 SD level of the model on two occasions, ending up with the formations of the March 2024 and December 2024 peaks. For now, the current rally is still below this level, but above the +0.5 SD that also corresponds to a significant level of gains. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Trapped Inside Triangle: 17% Move Incoming? “This suggests the market is relatively heated, but arguably still has room for further expansion before the unrealized profit held by investors reaches an extreme level above +1σ,” explains the analytics firm. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen some pullback during the past day as its price is down to $105,900. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio is currently on a record streak against the metric for Ethereum. Bitcoin Has Continued To Dominate Ethereum In MVRV Recently In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the divergence forming between Bitcoin and Ethereum. First, below is a chart that shows how the two cryptocurrencies have compared in terms of the Realized Cap growth since the start of the bull cycle. The “Realized Cap” here refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of capital that the investors of a given asset as a whole have invested into it. Changes in this metric, therefore, reflect the amount of capital going in/out of the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Above This Level Could Set Stage For $208,550 Top, Analyst Says From the graph, it’s visible that Bitcoin has observed a massive increase of $468 billion in the Realized Cap since the bear market bottom back in November 2022. In this same window, Ethereum has seen inflows amounting to only $61 billion. As the analytics firm explains, This disparity in capital inflows between the two assets partly underscores why these assets have experienced diverging performance since 2023. Ethereum has experienced a relatively smaller inflow of demand and fresh capital this cycle, which has resulted in weaker price appreciation and a lack of a fresh ATH, despite Bitcoin prices reaching over $100k in December. Divergence between the assets has also formed in another metric: the MVRV Ratio. This indicator keeps track of the ratio between the Market Cap of an asset and its Realized Cap. Since the Market Cap represents the value the holders are carrying in the present, its comparison against the Realized Cap in the MVRV Ratio tells us about the profit-loss status of the investors as a whole. As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio diverged from Ethereum’s around the start of the bull market. This implies that BTC investors have consistently enjoyed a higher amount of unrealized profits in this cycle. In the recent market downturn so far, ETH has taken a larger hit than BTC, so its MVRV Ratio has also declined at a faster rate. BTC investors as a whole are still in the green, but ETH holders are now underwater as the indicator for it has dipped under the 1 mark. Related Reading: 62.8% Of XRP Realized Cap Held By New Investors: Sign Of Fragility? To better showcase the disparity in the MVRV Ratio of the two coins, Glassnode has charted the difference between the two. As displayed in the graph, the difference between the Bitcoin and Ethereum MVRV Ratio has remained positive for 812 consecutive days now, which is the longest streak in history. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $79,300, down over 3% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the unrealized gains of the 30-day Bitcoin investors are now back inside the historical ‘healthy’ zone, a sign that could be bullish for BTC. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio For 30-Day Traders Has Declined Recently In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Santiment has discussed about the trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. The MVRV Ratio here refers to an indicator that keeps track of how the value held by the BTC investors (that is, the market cap) compares against the value that they initially put in (the realized cap). Related Reading: XRP, Bitcoin See Lack Of Euphoria: Why This Is Bullish When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the market as a whole is in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold implies the dominance of loss among the investors. In the context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio for the entire market isn’t of interest, but rather that of two specific holding ranges: 30-day and 365-day. The indicator corresponding to these ranges provides insight into the profit-loss breakdown of the monthly and yearly buyers of the asset. Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio for the 30-day and 365-day traders over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio for the 30-day investors had shot up to significant levels last month as the asset’s all-time high (ATH) exploration had taken place. Since the cryptocurrency has fallen to its consolidation phase, though, the metric has observed a cooldown. In the chart, Santiment has highlighted three zones for the indicator based on the historical trend. It would appear that the earlier increase had seen the metric surge into the ‘danger’ region, but with this decline, it’s now back inside the ‘healthy’ range. More specifically, the indicator has a value of 4.2% now, which is just inside the +5% to -5% range of the healthy zone. From the chart, it’s visible that the metric was last at this level on 26 November, just after which BTC observed a rebound. Generally, the tendency of the investors to sell goes up the higher amount of profits that they own, so high values of the MVRV Ratio can be a bad sign for the asset’s price. This is why the indicator being higher than 5% corresponds to the danger zone. Related Reading: Strong Bitcoin Rise “Expected Within 1-2 Months,” Quant Explains Why With the MVRV Ratio of the 30-day traders making a return into the healthy range, it’s possible that Bitcoin may be able to see a resumption of its rally or at least, avoid a further drop. The indicator for those who bought within the past year sits at more than 37%, but usually, investors who have been holding for so long don’t tend to sell easily, so these high profits may not be an immediate threat to BTC. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $94,900, down 1% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows Bitcoin has recently surpassed a level of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio that has historically signaled overheated conditions. Bitcoin Has Surpassed Highest MVRV Deviation Pricing Band In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about how Bitcoin is looking right now from the perspective of a pricing model based on the MVRV Ratio. The MVRV Ratio is a popular BTC indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the market cap of the asset and its realized cap. The latter here is an on-chain capitalization model that, in short, tells us about the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase their tokens. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Could See A 53% Surge If This Resistance Breaks, Analyst Explains Since the MVRV Ratio compares this initial investment against the value that the investors are currently holding (that is, the market cap), it essentially provides information about the profitability of the addresses on the BTC network. Now, the pricing model that Glassnode has created doesn’t directly make use of the MVRV Ratio itself, but rather some standard deviations (SDs) from its mean. Below is the chart for this model shared by the analytics firm in the report. In this model, pricing levels correspond to BTC prices at which the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to a certain SD above or below its mean. At the +0.5 SD level, for instance, the MVRV Ratio is 0.5 SD greater than its mean value. From the graph, it’s apparent that the Bitcoin price has broken past the highest of the pricing bands part of this model with its latest run. The level in question is the +1.0 SD, equivalent to $90,200 at the moment. Historically, BTC has tended to form tops when its price has exceeded this pricing band. The reason behind this is the fact that at such high levels of the MVRV Ratio, the investors carry a significant amount of profits, so a mass selloff with the motive of profit-taking can become a real possibility. Related Reading: XRP Binance Inflows Spike: What It Means For Price The last time that the cryptocurrency broke past this barrier was in the first quarter of this year. As is visible in the chart, it didn’t take the price long to top out back then. In full-blown bull markets in the past, however, Bitcoin has generally sustained inside this overheated territory for notable periods of time before finding a peak. An example of this trend is also highlighted in the chart; the first half 2021 bull run saw the coin stay in the zone for a few months thanks to high capital inflows. As such, it’s not necessary that BTC would immediately reach a cyclical top now that it has become overheated on this model. BTC Price Bitcoin had risen beyond the $98,000 level earlier in the past day, but it seems the coin has suffered a minor setback as it’s now back at $97,500. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Here’s what the legendary Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MRVRV) Ratio says about whether Bitcoin is currently overheated or not. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Risen Alongside The Latest Rally In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about the MVRV Ratio of Bitcoin. The “MVRV Ratio” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and realized cap. The market cap here is just the total valuation of BTC’s circulating supply at the current spot price. The other metric, the realized cap, is also a capitalization model for the asset, but it doesn’t work so simply. Related Reading: Ethereum Volatility Soon? Derivatives Exchanges Receive 82,000 ETH In Deposits Unlike the market cap, this model doesn’t put the same price on every coin in circulation; rather, it assumes that the last price at which a token was transacted represents its ‘true’ value. The previous transaction of any coin is likely to represent the last point it switched hands, so the realized cap essentially takes the sum of the cost basis of all tokens in circulation. One way to look at this model is as a measure of the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have put into the cryptocurrency. The market cap, in contrast, signifies the value that these holders are carrying in the present. When the MVRV Ratio is greater than 1, it means that the market cap is above the realized cap right now. Such a trend suggests the investors as a whole are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, the indicator being below this mark implies the average holder is currently underwater as they are holding their coins at a value below the price they bought them for. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio had surged to significant levels back when BTC had broken the November 2021 all-time high (ATH) in the first quarter of the year. An increase in the metric has also followed in the new ATH break, but the metric is clearly not near the same high as earlier in the year yet. Historically, the cryptocurrency has made tops whenever the indicator has risen to high levels. As the quant has marked in the chart, however, how high is a ‘high’ MVRV level has been declining over the last few cycles. If the trendline drawn by the analyst holds, then the current cycle should see a top around when the MVRV Ratio would hit a value of around 3. At present, the metric is at 2, so there may still be a while to go before Bitcoin becomes overheated. Related Reading: Dogecoin Rockets Up 12%, But This FOMO Signal Could End Rally As for why the asset tends to get overheated when the MVRV Ratio shoots up, the reason is that investors become increasingly likely to take part in profit-taking the larger their gains get. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $74,100, up almost 8% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price action has sparked renewed interest among analysts and investors as the cryptocurrency approaches a major event (the US election) later in November. A CryptoQuant analyst known as CoinLupin recently provided an analysis on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, focusing on Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a metric often used to gauge Bitcoin’s value compared to its on-chain fundamentals. With macroeconomic factors creating uncertainty in the crypto markets, CoinLupin shared insights on the significance of MVRV for evaluating Bitcoin’s current market position. Related Reading: Mt. Gox Stirs Market with 500 Bitcoin Transfer to Unknown Wallets—What’s Next for BTC? MVRV And Historical Cycle Peaks The MVRV ratio, currently around 2, indicates that Bitcoin’s market value is approximately double its on-chain realized value, reflecting the average price paid by all asset holders. CoinLupin explained that the key lies in observing trend changes within the MVRV ratio over time rather than fixating on this absolute value. Using the 365-day Bollinger Band for MVRV along with the 4-year average—a common reflection of Bitcoin’s cyclical trends—the analyst noted that the MVRV ratio is currently above the long-term average and recently exceeded its 365-day moving average. According to CoinLupin, this suggests that Bitcoin’s upward trend remains intact. CoinLupin elaborated on the potential significance of Bitcoin’s MVRV levels, particularly regarding historical cycle peaks. In previous cycles, Bitcoin has typically peaked when the MVRV ratio is between 3 and 3.6. While Bitcoin’s current MVRV of 2 does not yet approach this peak range, the upward trend in the MVRV indicates that the market may still have room for growth if historical patterns hold. Should the Realized Value (RV) remain constant, CoinLupin’s analysis projects that Bitcoin would need a price increase of around 43% to 77% to reach an MVRV level between 3 and 3.6. This translates to a potential price target range of $95,000 to $120,000, provided market conditions support upward momentum. However, the analyst also noted that the Realized Value could increase as new buying interest emerges, potentially pushing peak valuations beyond these estimated levels. Bitcoin Market Performance After several weeks and days of building momentum to surge past the $70,000 resistance, Bitcoin has again fallen below this price mark, indicating that there might not be enough momentum yet to move further to the upside. So far, the asset has declined by nearly 1% in the past week. However, BTC currently trades for $68,306, recording a slight increase in price by 1% as its 24-hour high remains at $69,317. Interestingly, despite the slight dip in price in the past weeks, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has registered an increase over this period. Related Reading: Tracking Bitcoin’s Profit Cycles: Could A New Market High Be Near? Particularly, data from CoinGecko shows that BTC’s 24-hour trading volume has increased from below $30 billion last Monday to currently above $38 billion as of today. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio may point towards a top being yet to occur in the current cycle. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Hasn’t Yet Hit The Peaks Of Previous Cycles In a new post on X, the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock discusses the historical trend of the Bitcoin MVRV […]
On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is doing a retest that has historically been significant for BTC. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Is Retesting Its 365-Day SMA Right Now As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio is retesting a level that has acted as an important psychological level in the past. The “MVRV ratio” here refers to a popular on-chain indicator that, in short, compares the value that the investors are holding (that is, the market cap) against what they used to purchase the cryptocurrency (the realized cap). When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the investors can be considered to be in profit right now. Tops can become more likely to form the higher the ratio above this mark, as holders become increasingly tempted to harvest their gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Extreme Greed’ Is Almost Here: Price Bottom Now Close? On the other hand, the indicator being under the level implies the dominance of losses in the market. Bottoms can be probable in this zone, as sellers become exhausted here. Naturally, the MVRV ratio is exactly equal to 1 suggests the investors are holding profits and losses in equal parts, so the average holder could be assumed to be just breaking even on their investment. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio, as well as its 365-day simple moving average (SMA), over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has been observing a decline since the price all-time high (ATH) set back in March. This trend is because BTC has been riding on bearish momentum since then. Investor profits, which had once ballooned to relatively high levels due to the rally, have taken a sizable hit because of the price drop. However, holders are still very much in gains, as the metric’s value is around 1.8 right now. The chart shows that this is around the same level that the indicator’s 365-day SMA has been floating around recently. Historically, this SMA has acted as an important level for the indicator, sometimes taking the role of support during bullish trends. The MVRV ratio crossing below this line has often meant a transition towards a bearish trend for Bitcoin. As such, this current retest between the indicator and the line can be significant for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Social Media Screams “Sell” As Bitcoin Crashes To $54,000: Buy Signal? It remains to be seen if this support level holds or if the metric will drop below it, potentially leading to an extended bearish period for BTC. BTC Price Bitcoin has only slightly recovered from its latest crash so far, as its price is trading around $56,900. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Here’s what the latest trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio suggests about where the market is currently in terms of a top. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Seen A Decline To The 2.34 Level According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, the BTC MVRV ratio surged high earlier this year as the cryptocurrency rally took place. The “MVRV ratio” is a popular indicator that tracks the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The former is simply the total valuation of the asset’s supply at the current spot price, while the latter is an on-chain capitalization model. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders & Price Top: Glassnode Reveals Pattern The realized cap measures the total sum of the value of the cryptocurrency’s supply, assuming that each coin in circulation has its true value at the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain rather than the current spot value. One way to interpret the realized cap is that since it takes into account the buying price of every token in circulation (assuming that the last transaction of every token was indeed the point at which it last changed hands), it essentially sums up the total capital the investors have invested in the asset. As such, the MVRV ratio tells us how the total value that Bitcoin investors are carrying right now (that is, the market cap) compares against the value they put in (the realized cap). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the past few years: Looks like the value of the metric has been turning down in recent days | Source: IntoTheBlock on X As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has had a value greater than 1 for a while now. When the indicator has such values, the market cap is greater than the realized cap, and hence, the investors carry net profits. With the latest rally in the asset, this indicator has surged to relatively high levels, a natural consequence of the holders’ profits ballooning up with the price surge. After the recent drawdown in the price, though, the MVRV ratio has also turned itself around, as it’s now heading down. At present, the ratio has a value of around 2.34. “Traditionally, an MVRV ratio above 3 has been a reliable marker for predicting price peaks,” notes IntoTheBlock. So far, in the current rally, the metric hasn’t crossed this mark. It did come close recently, but the latest decline has meant it has gained a bit more distance to the level. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Halving May Not Result In Supply Squeeze: Glassnode Why have tops historically occurred at high values of the Bitcoin MVRV ratio? The answer is that investors in profits are more likely to participate in selling, and this temptation to take profits only increases as their gains grow larger. Because of this, selloffs are most probable when the market is holding extreme levels of profits, which is exactly what high MVRV ratio values reflect. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,200, up 3% over the past 24 hours. The price of the asset appears to have rebounded over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Yiğit Ali Atasoy on Unsplash.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com