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As Bitcoin (BTC) tries to recover from its weekend sell-off that saw it almost crash to $100,000, some crypto analysts think that the BTC market likely “lost its pulse.” As a result, the leading cryptocurrency may be on the cusp of losing its bullish momentum. Bitcoin At The Risk Of Losing Momentum? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor TeddyVision, Bitcoin’s Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has been trending lower, confirming that inter-exchange activity is slowly fading. Related Reading: Bitcoin Buyers Dominate On Binance As CVD Confirmation Nears 0.9, Signaling $130K Target Zone For the uninitiated, the IFP measures liquidity as it moves between crypto exchanges. In essence, it can be considered a proxy to determine how active arbitrage and market-making really are. To explain, arbitrage refers to the practice of buying an asset for a lower price on one platform and selling it at a higher price on another, thus benefiting from the price differential. In simple terms, arbitrage refers to profiting from inefficiencies. When such inefficiencies exist in the market and are actually executable, liquidity tends to start moving fast. At the same time, trading bots begin shuttling funds across platforms, market spreads begin to realign again, and the market starts to feel “alive.” This is when the IFP rises. Although there is greater market volatility due to a rising IFP, it is generally considered healthy for the market as it confirms that BTC is likely experiencing a bullish momentum. However, since the IFP reading has turned lower in recent weeks, traders are finding it harder to arbitrage price discrepancies even though they might still be appearing. TeddyVision noted: Price discrepancies still appear, but they’re harder to arbitrage – liquidity is thinner, latency is higher, and risk-adjusted opportunities are drying up. Traders find fewer setups worth taking, and less capital circulates between venues. The analyst emphasized that liquidity is not leaving the market, it is just not circulating like earlier. While such a slowdown in liquidity does not crash the market, it does drain the energy out of it. To conclude, the market is not collapsing, it is just “too efficient” at the moment for traders to find any meaningful arbitrage opportunities that they can benefit from. When inefficiencies leave the market, the underlying asset is likely at risk of losing its momentum. A Healthy Correction For BTC? The market crash on October 9 led to the largest single-day liquidation ever in the history of the crypto industry, totalling a mammoth $19 billion. While the overall optimism has receded, some analysts are still hopeful of a quick sentiment turnaround. Related Reading: Bitcoin Forecast: $160,000 Target Possible If These 2 Conditions Align – Analyst Fellow crypto analyst EtherNasyonaL stated that BTC has maintained its upward trajectory despite the recent market crash, and that a move to a new all-time high (ATH) may be on the horizon. At press time, BTC trades at $111,731, down 2.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin remains under pressure after sliding from its all-time high above $124,000 earlier this month. At the time of writing, the asset trades at $110,219, reflecting a weekly decline of about 2% and a broader drop of more than 10% from its peak. Despite the correction, analysts continue to examine on-chain data for signs of the market’s next direction. Among the latest insights, CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain highlighted the significance of the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Price Bands, a long-observed metric used to assess market cycles. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s current positioning above key support bands suggests the uptrend remains intact, but with room for both continued growth and potential volatility. Related Reading: JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is ‘Undervalued’—But By How Much? MVRV Price Bands Point to Potential Cycle Top The MVRV Price Bands model has historically been used to identify both bottoms and tops in Bitcoin’s long-term cycles. CryptoOnchain noted that the model’s lower band, often referred to as the “floor price,” reliably marked market lows in 2018 and 2022, while the upper band highlighted cycle peaks such as 2017 and 2021. Currently, Bitcoin’s trading price is positioned well above the model’s floor price of around $52,300 and its median support level of approximately $91,600. This indicates what the analyst referred to as a “healthy uptrend” with persistent activity from long-term holders. Importantly, the model’s projected ceiling price suggests that Bitcoin could reach as high as $183,000 by August 2025, assuming historical trends remain consistent. The analyst emphasized that while the ceiling level offers a potential target, traders should monitor the mid-price band for signs of weakening momentum. A decisive move below this level could indicate a shift in trend, raising the possibility of deeper corrections even within a bullish cycle. Bitcoin Cost Basis Trends Reflect Market Behavior A separate analysis by CryptoQuant contributor BorisD provided additional context by examining the cost basis of Bitcoin investors on Binance. Data shows that the average deposit address cost basis on Binance has risen from $44,000 earlier this year to $62,000. This suggests that investors are actively accumulating at higher price zones, particularly around Bitcoin’s recent peaks. New whale investors, defined as large-scale buyers with significant holdings, currently hold an average cost basis of $108,000, which is emerging as a key support level. According to BorisD, this level could serve as the foundation for the next leg of upward momentum if demand persists. At the same time, miner-linked wallets showed a slight reduction in their average cost basis from $58,000 to $54,000, hinting at modest selling pressure from mining operations. Related Reading: Bitcoin And The September Curse: Can This Time Be Different? Long-term holders, meanwhile, remain well positioned, with a cost basis near $40,000. This region has historically been considered a strong accumulation zone, providing resilience during broader market corrections. BorisD pointed out that cost basis levels often track closely with price behavior and can act as both support and resistance during volatile swings. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to face challenges sustaining its momentum after retreating from its recent all-time high above $124,000. At the time of writing, the asset trades around $111,090, reflecting a 10.5% decline from its peak and a 4.2% drop over the past week. The pullback highlights growing uncertainty among traders as buying pressure weakens, even while some on-chain indicators suggest potential accumulation. One such signal comes from Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Analyst Crazzyblockk, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, examined a metric called the Binance Buying Power Ratio. According to the analyst, this ratio, measuring the inflow of stablecoins relative to Bitcoin outflows from Binance, has recently climbed sharply, moving into positive territory. The implication is that traders are sending stablecoins into the exchange (potential buying power) while withdrawing Bitcoin, likely for long-term storage. Related Reading: Bitcoin Keeps Slipping Down: Is $107,000 The Next Support? Binance Buying Power Ratio Signals Accumulation Crazzyblockk explained that this pattern points to a buildup of liquidity while simultaneously reducing the Bitcoin supply available for sale on Binance. In his words: Stablecoins in, BTC out. This combination of accumulating ‘dry powder’ and securing assets off-exchange is a classic sign of a market preparing for a bullish move. The surge in buying power ratio coincides with Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase, suggesting that some traders may be preparing for a rebound. Historically, an increase in stablecoin inflows has often preceded heightened trading activity, with many market participants using these reserves to enter positions once favorable conditions emerge. At the same time, large Bitcoin outflows from exchanges can reflect a broader trend of long-term holding behavior. Investors who transfer coins to private or institutional-grade wallets often intend to store them securely, limiting immediate selling pressure. If sustained, this dual trend of stablecoin accumulation and Bitcoin withdrawals could support the market by reducing available supply and preparing liquidity for upward moves. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Show Signs of Weakness While Binance metrics suggest optimism, another CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, highlighted a more cautious indicator: the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders (STHs). This metric measures whether coins moved on-chain are being sold at a profit or loss. Darkfost noted that the STH SOPR has now fallen below 1, with its monthly average sitting at the neutral point. In practical terms, this means that many recent buyers are no longer selling at a profit, and some are even taking losses. He wrote: Historically, when STH SOPR reaches this level, two scenarios are common. Either the market rebounds quickly, or short-term holders panic, leading to further losses. During this cycle, the second scenario has often played out—though these periods have consistently created opportunities for medium- to long-term investors. The comparison to late 2021, when Bitcoin last peaked at $69,000 before entering a prolonged correction, shows the weight of this signal. A persistent decline in SOPR could indicate rising pressure from traders seeking to exit, even as long-term holders demonstrate greater conviction. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show signs of weakness after recently setting a new all-time high earlier this month. As of today, the cryptocurrency is trading at $110,595, reflecting a 4.2% decline over the past week and an 11% drop from its peak of $124,000. The correction highlights an ongoing struggle for momentum even as broader market conditions remain uncertain. This decline has drawn the attention of analysts examining key on-chain and trading metrics. One such measure is the Taker Buy Sell Ratio, which is signaling reduced confidence among traders. According to data from CryptoQuant, this ratio has fallen to levels not seen since late 2021, raising questions about whether Bitcoin’s recent highs can be sustained without stronger demand. Related Reading: Bitcoin Correction Risks Deepen With $105,000 As Critical Support Bitcoin Taker Buy Sell Ratio Suggests Shift in Market Dynamics CryptoQuant contributor Gaah explained that the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s Taker Buy Sell Ratio has dropped to its lowest level since November 2021, a period that coincided with the peak of the previous cycle near $69,000 before a prolonged downturn. The ratio tracks the balance between aggressive buy and sell orders at market prices. A value above 1 reflects stronger buying pressure, while a reading below 1 indicates more active selling. Currently, the ratio sits below its historical average, suggesting that selling activity has consistently outpaced buying in recent weeks. This is notable because it follows closely on the heels of Bitcoin establishing new highs, revealing a divergence between price performance and trader sentiment. Gaah argued that such behavior often signals caution among investors who may be locking in profits or reducing exposure to manage risk. “The similarity to November 2021 should not be overlooked,” the analyst noted. “Even as Bitcoin pushed higher at that time, underlying market sentiment was deteriorating, which eventually preceded a sharp correction.” The current data, Gaah added, indicates that although Bitcoin remains in a broader bullish phase, the imbalance between buyers and sellers could introduce heightened volatility in the weeks ahead. Analyst Sees Mixed Signals in Technical Structure Beyond on-chain metrics, technical analysts are also weighing in on Bitcoin’s current price structure. A market analyst known as Crypto Nova suggested that despite recent weakness, the overall uptrend remains intact. In a post on X, the analyst highlighted that Bitcoin has been forming higher lows since its recovery began from a low of nearly $15,000 in late 2022, thereby maintaining a long-term bullish pattern. Nova pointed to the $50,000–$70,000 range from earlier in the cycle as an example of a level many believed to mark the top, but which ultimately gave way to further gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dives As On-Chain Data Shows Every Cohort Now Selling The analyst noted that the same uncertainty applies to today’s market, where corrections do not necessarily confirm a cycle peak. “At the very least, BTC should see a bounce from current levels,” Nova said, while also acknowledging that resistance remains strong at higher price zones. Bounce time for Bitcoin? At the very least BTC should bounce here as it’s reaching the zones earlier highlighted. Zooming in there is some small lower high structure that price will test (dotted lines) but it will more than likely… https://t.co/Be3FKYnRIY pic.twitter.com/XmrCDS9ldQ — Crypto Nova (@CryptoGirlNova) August 26, 2025 The combination of weakening taker ratios and cautious technical outlooks suggests that Bitcoin’s trajectory may be entering a decisive phase. If selling pressure persists, the asset could face deeper corrections, but sustained support near $110,000 may also provide the base for renewed momentum. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to retrace from its record highs, with the asset trading below $115,000 at the time of writing. Current price levels place Bitcoin near $113,098, a decline of around 6.5% over the past week and close to 9% below its all-time peak. Despite the downturn, analysts monitoring on-chain data suggest the broader market cycle may still have room to extend upward. One such view comes from CryptoQuant’s QuickTake contributor, PelinayPA, who analyzed Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio. The analyst noted that while recent corrections may weigh on short-term sentiment, historical patterns in MVRV indicate that Bitcoin has not yet reached conditions typically associated with market cycle tops. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Treasury Bubble Popping? Expert Answers Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Points to Neutral but Upward Potential The MVRV ratio is a widely tracked on-chain indicator that compares Bitcoin’s total market capitalization with its realized capitalization, which reflects the aggregated value of coins at the price they last moved on-chain. Historically, when the ratio climbs into the 3.5 to 4 range, it signals a potential overheating of the market. At these levels, most holders are in profit, selling activity rises, and price tops are often reached. Conversely, MVRV levels below 1 have historically marked accumulation phases and strong long-term entry points. Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio stands around 2.1. According to PelinayPA, this reading positions the market within a “neutral to bullish” zone, suggesting that while Bitcoin is no longer cheap, the conditions for an extended rally remain intact. The analyst noted that in previous cycles, the MVRV ratio advanced significantly higher before a peak, implying that Bitcoin’s price would need to move into the $140,000–$180,000 range for the indicator to reach historical top levels. However, the data also suggests that corrections along the way are plausible. “Since MVRV is already above 2, the market is not cheap anymore — short to mid-term corrections may occur along the way,” PelinayPA explained. The balance between potential upside and intermittent drawdowns reflects a phase of consolidation within a broader bull market structure. Exchange Flows Signal Mixed Market Behavior In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant contributor BorisD examined exchange netflow data, focusing on Binance, the world’s largest crypto trading platform. The report highlighted notable trends across several altcoins, showing how capital movements may inform future market conditions. According to the data, tokens such as ENJ (Enjin) and FET (Fetch.ai) recorded significant outflows from Binance. This pattern typically indicates that investors are moving assets to private wallets, which can be interpreted as a sign of longer-term holding behavior. In contrast, assets like ANKR and MATIC have seen strong inflows onto exchanges, raising the possibility of either upcoming selling pressure or speculative positioning ahead of market shifts. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Is Back: Traders Flip As Price Plunges To $113,000 BorisD suggested that monitoring which assets are attracting inflows versus outflows could help investors identify potential opportunities in the altcoin market. “Identifying which of these altcoins are currently near potential bottoms and positioning for their next rally seems to be the most rational strategy,” the analyst wrote. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has retreated from last week’s record high above $124,000, slipping by over 8% in recent days. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency trades around $113,867, reflecting a 6.3% decline over the past seven days. The correction has raised questions about the forces driving current market dynamics, particularly the role of large holders in shaping price momentum. On-chain data has pointed to a consistent pattern of selling activity from whales on Binance, the world’s largest exchange by trading volume. According to CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain, these movements appear to be deliberate, with whales strategically distributing holdings near resistance levels. The data shows a series of deposits in the 100–1,000 BTC range flowing into Binance, suggesting calculated selling activity aimed at capturing profits while minimizing sharp price impacts. Related Reading: Crypto Founder Predicts The Collapse Of Bitcoin In This Timeframe Bitcoin Whale Activity and Market Distribution Arab Chain’s analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s recent dip to levels near $112,500 coincided with an increase in whale inflows to Binance. These deposits were not massive, singular transfers exceeding 10,000 BTC, but rather repeated transactions over several days, creating what the analyst described as a “coordinated distribution pattern.” This behavior aligns with historical whale strategies, selling gradually at key resistance zones, in this case between $118,000 and $120,000, rather than triggering abrupt market declines. The analyst also observed that despite these movements, the 30-day cumulative whale flow indicator has remained steady around $4.8 billion, signaling that broader accumulation trends remain intact. However, short-term pressure persists. The data shows that each rebound attempt by Bitcoin is met with additional whale deposits to exchanges, reinforcing selling momentum. If this trend continues without a significant pickup in buying activity, Arab Chain warned that Bitcoin could face further downside, potentially testing the $110,000 support zone. Broader Market Context and Institutional Positioning While whale activity has been the focus of near-term market analysis, other perspectives suggest a more layered view of Bitcoin’s position. Another CryptoQuant contributor, known as IT Tech, noted that institutional strategies such as dollar-cost averaging (DCA) via over-the-counter (OTC) desks and on-chain settlements also play a role in shaping demand. However, these flows alone do not always determine immediate price direction. Instead, IT Tech emphasized the importance of monitoring ETF inflows, spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), and exchange premiums, such as those on Coinbase, to gain a clearer understanding of market sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bullish Signal: Sharks & Whales Are Buying The Dip This mix of whale-driven selling and institutional accumulation highlights the complexity of the current market. On one hand, short-term tactical selling on exchanges like Binance creates downward pressure, while on the other, longer-term investment vehicles continue to add to Bitcoin’s demand base. The interaction of these factors will likely determine whether Bitcoin stabilizes above current levels or moves toward a deeper correction. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) has once again slipped under the $120,000 price mark, retracing after reaching a new all-time high above $124,000 last week. As of the latest market data, BTC is trading around $115,557, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours and nearly 7% below its peak. This price movement suggests that the asset is currently consolidating after its recent rally, leaving market participants watching closely for the next directional move. Meanwhile, analysts are turning to on-chain data for signals on Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. One such perspective comes from PelinayPA, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, who examined long-term holder (LTH) behavior using a set of profit and loss metrics. The findings highlight that while profit-taking has begun, current selling levels remain below historical extremes seen in past bull market peaks. Related Reading: Bitcoin, XRP, ETH’s Pullback: Key Factors Behind The Recent Drop Tracking Long-Term Holder Signals According to PelinayPA, the LTH analysis uses several indicators to measure the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the cost basis of long-term holders. Profit and loss bands, ranging from 150% to 1,000% above cost basis, help determine when Bitcoin enters zones historically associated with a higher risk of market tops. When BTC approaches the +500% band, it has often coincided with heightened selling activity and eventual cycle peaks. The analysis also incorporates a Spending Binary Indicator, which reflects the intensity of LTH selling, alongside “High Spending” signals that typically emerge near market tops and “Bottom Alerts” that occur during deep corrections. Reviewing past cycles, PelinayPA pointed to 2017 and 2021, where bear market downturns followed heavy long-term holder selling, while the 2022–2023 bottom was marked by multiple loss realization alerts around the $15,000–$20,000 range. Currently, Bitcoin sits within the 150%–350% profit band, leaving potential room for further growth, though the risk of a market top rises as the asset approaches the higher bands. The analyst noted that while green profit-taking bars are visible today, they remain well below the levels observed in earlier cycle peaks. Bitcoin Market Outlook: Short, Mid, and Long Term In outlining the potential scenarios, PelinayPA suggested that Bitcoin may remain range-bound in the short term, as controlled profit-taking by long-term holders limits upside momentum. However, if accumulation and broader demand continue, the price could advance into the $124,000–$178,000 range, corresponding to the higher profit thresholds on the LTH model. For the mid-term outlook, extending into late 2025, the analyst cautioned that if long-term holder selling intensifies like in 2021, Bitcoin could be nearing a cycle top. In such a scenario, the asset might peak above $150,000 before the next major correction. Looking ahead to 2026, the absence of new bottom alerts suggests that the market is still within the later stages of the ongoing bull cycle, rather than transitioning into a confirmed bear market. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s momentum has slowed after reaching a new all-time high above $124,000 last week. The cryptocurrency has since moved lower, with its price slipping by nearly 10% from that peak. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $115,424, reflecting a 2.5% decline in the past 24 hours. The retracement has drawn attention to on-chain activity and investor behavior, particularly among long-term holders (LTHs). A CryptoQuant analyst has been monitoring realized profit and loss metrics to gauge whether the current cycle is approaching its peak or if more upside potential remains.  Data released by the analyst sheds light on how seasoned holders are reacting to Bitcoin’s latest rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Survive Brutal September Before Q4 Hope, Analyst Predicts Long-Term Holder Trends Across Market Cycles CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA shared an assessment of Bitcoin’s long-term holder realized profit and loss (RPL) metric, which tracks when investors who have held coins for extended periods decide to sell. According to the analyst, this indicator has historically been reliable in signaling both cycle tops and bottoms. The analysis highlights key phases across multiple market cycles. During the 2017 bull market, a surge in LTH realized profits coincided with Bitcoin’s peak. By contrast, in the 2018–2019 bear market, profit realization slowed dramatically, while losses surfaced, reflecting the market bottom. A similar pattern was observed in 2021, though the profit realization was more gradual, suggesting that selling pressure was spread across the market rather than concentrated in short bursts. When Bitcoin entered the 2022–2023 downturn, realized losses increased significantly as the asset fell into the $15,000–$20,000 range. That period was characterized by panic selling among longer-term holders. In the current market, however, PelinayPA notes that while profit-taking is visible, it remains moderate compared with past peaks. This indicates that, although selling is occurring, it has not yet reached the levels typically associated with a cycle top. What the Current Data Suggests for Bitcoin The current phase of moderate profit realization suggests caution but does not confirm that Bitcoin has fully topped out. PelinayPA explained that: Historically, sharp increases in LTH profit realization (large green spikes) align with bull market tops. Current selling (mid-2025) is measured and gradual, which implies BTC may still be in the late stages of a bull cycle. If LTH selling accelerates, it could mark the next peak. This measured approach by long-term holders could mean that the market retains some room for additional upward movement, provided selling pressure does not intensify. At the same time, the data highlights that a shift toward heavier profit-taking would be an important warning signal for traders and institutions watching the market closely. Related Reading: Bitcoin 30-Day CDD Down: Market Absorbs LTH Selling Without Breaking Support On-chain analytics firms frequently point to these long-term holder behaviors as leading indicators. While Bitcoin’s price action continues to consolidate below its record high, how these investors act in the coming weeks could set the tone for the next stage of the cycle. For now, the data suggests that the rally has not yet reached conditions historically associated with a definitive top, but market participants are advised to watch profit realization closely. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin remains under the $120,000 price mark following a pullback triggered by remarks from the US Treasury that the federal government will not be purchasing the cryptocurrency. At the time of writing, BTC is valued at approximately $118,612, representing a 4.1% decline from its record high above $124,000 reached earlier this week. The market seems to be currently assessing whether this consolidation phase will lead to renewed upward momentum or extend the correction. Recent blockchain data has brought attention to activity on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Act Is Still America’s Playbook, Clarifies Senator Lummis Bitcoin Exchange Inflows and Potential Impact According to CryptoOnchain, a contributor to the on-chain data provider platform CryptoQuant, the exchange has recorded one of the seven highest average Bitcoin inflows in recent months. This increase, measured by the Mean Inflow metric, reflects a greater volume of BTC being transferred into Binance wallets, potentially as preparation for selling, using as collateral for leveraged positions, or institutional portfolio adjustments. CryptoOnchain explained that persistent high inflows often indicate that more Bitcoin is moving from private wallets to exchange trading accounts. Without equivalent buying demand to offset this, the increase in supply can create short-term selling pressure. The positive netflow trend, where inflows surpass withdrawals, supports this interpretation, showing that Binance’s Bitcoin reserves are growing. Historically, similar patterns have preceded periods of price volatility, particularly if large holders decide to offload positions or hedge via derivatives markets. If inflows continue at their current pace without a parallel rise in demand, the analyst suggests the market could experience higher short-term downside risk. On the other hand, if these inflows are met with strong buying interest, they could provide liquidity for further price movement. The key factor remains whether the increase in exchange-held BTC is driven by selling intentions or strategic positioning ahead of market developments. Leverage Trends Point to Lower Speculative Risk A separate analysis from another CryptoQuant contributor, Arab Chain, examined Binance’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) for Bitcoin. The ratio, which measures open interest relative to exchange reserves, recently dropped from its early August peak above 0.27 to around 0.25, before showing a modest rebound. From May to late July, both Bitcoin’s price and the leverage ratio rose together, suggesting heightened participation from traders using larger positions. The recent drop in leverage, despite prices remaining near $119,000, indicates a reduction in speculative exposure, possibly from liquidated high-risk positions or profit-taking after rapid price gains. Arab Chain noted that a lower leverage ratio during a period of price stability can be a constructive sign, as it implies that market support is coming from actual liquidity rather than excessive speculation. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Cycle You Knew Is Dead, Says Capriole Founder Should the ELR remain between 0.24 and 0.25 while Bitcoin gradually moves above $120,000, it could signal a price advance driven more by spot demand than leveraged trading. However, a sudden rise in the leverage ratio above 0.27 during another test of the $120,000–$124,000 range would increase the risk of a sharp correction. This would mirror the conditions seen during previous liquidation events, where a combination of high leverage and rapid price movements triggered large sell-offs, the analyst noted. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin briefly set a new all-time high above $124,000 earlier today before experiencing a sharp retracement that brought the asset back below the $120,000 level. As of press time, BTC is trading at $118,336, representing a weekly loss of 1.9% and a 4.5% decline from its peak. The price shift comes amid notable on-chain developments that have caught the attention of market analysts. According to CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain, the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio across all exchanges has risen above 0.50, a level historically associated with higher short-term volatility. This ratio measures the proportion of BTC inflows to exchanges originating from large holders, often signaling potential market-moving activity. Despite this, aggregated data across all exchanges shows negative net flows, meaning more BTC is leaving exchanges than entering, which typically aligns with accumulation phases. Related Reading: Bitcoin Options Traders Don’t Expect Volatility: Contrarian Signal Brewing? Bitcoin Binance Activity Diverges From Broader Market Trends While overall exchange flows suggest accumulation, Binance has seen a contrasting pattern. Data from CryptoOnchain shows Binance recorded its largest single-day positive net flow in the past 12 months, indicating a concentration of BTC inflows to the platform. Such divergences, when high whale ratios coincide with significant inflows to one exchange, have historically preceded both sharp sell-offs and leveraged short squeezes, depending on whether the inflows are directed toward spot selling or derivatives trading. This activity has been accompanied by a surge in Binance’s BTC spot trading volume, which reached $7 billion in a single day, according to a separate analysis by Amr Taha of CryptoQuant. The spike in volume may reflect a shift in trader positioning, potentially influenced by institutional trades or broader macroeconomic factors. Additionally, short-term holder (STH) inflows to Binance have crossed the 0.4 threshold on the Spent Output Age Bands metric, a level often associated with retail-driven sell activity. Historically, retail participants have tended to sell into strength during bullish market phases, providing liquidity for more sophisticated traders. Whale Behavior Points to Lower Immediate Selling Pressure In contrast to heightened retail activity, the inflows from large holders, categorized as whales (1,000–10,000 BTC) and humpbacks, remain relatively low. Current whale inflows stand at 1,170 BTC, significantly below the 14,610 BTC recorded on July 19, which coincided with a notable price drop. The absence of similar large-scale selling now suggests a reduction in immediate downside risk, though market conditions remain dependent on other factors such as derivatives positioning and macroeconomic developments. The interaction between whale behavior, retail participation, and exchange-specific flows highlights the current complexity of Bitcoin’s market structure. While the broader trend of net outflows from exchanges supports a longer-term bullish outlook, the elevated whale ratio and concentrated inflows to Binance increase the likelihood of short-term volatility. Analysts recommend close monitoring of Binance’s order book, open interest, and funding rates over the coming sessions to better understand potential price direction. With Bitcoin hovering just below the $120,000 mark, the next few trading days will be critical in determining whether the market stabilizes or sees further corrective moves. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has extended its upward momentum over the past week, gaining nearly 6% in that time and 1.8% in the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $120,499, maintaining its position near a key resistance zone between $119,000 and $120,000. Market data indicates that traders are watching this price area closely, given its significance in previous price action during July. Recent analysis from CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain shows that Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) on Binance has climbed to around $13.7 billion, approaching its mid-to-late July highs. This metric, which tracks the total value of outstanding futures contracts, is often used to gauge market participation and potential volatility. The current levels suggest a notable build-up of speculative positions as the price approaches critical resistance. Related Reading: Bitcoin At Risk Of Pullback As Binance Miner Distributions Spike, Analyst Says Bitcoin Leveraged Positions and Potential Market Outcomes According to Arab Chain, a simultaneous rise in both price and open interest typically signals the entry of new speculative liquidity, most likely from traders taking long positions. While this can support short-term price increases, it also raises the market’s sensitivity to corrections. If open interest grows faster than price, the rally can become overleveraged, leaving the market vulnerable to a long squeeze in the event of a sharp pullback. The $119,000–$120,000 range has acted as a decision point in recent months. A breakout above this level with stable or slightly declining open interest could indicate the move is driven by spot buying or short covering, which generally carries less liquidation risk. In this scenario, Arab Chain sees potential for BTC to target the $122,000–$124,000 range. However, a sharp rejection at these levels with elevated open interest could trigger liquidation-driven declines toward nearby support. Monitoring Open Interest Trends for Confirmation Open interest is currently just below the all-time high of approximately $14 billion, leaving limited room for further leveraged build-up before reaching historic extremes. Arab Chain notes that after a decline in both price and OI from late July to early August, indicating capital exiting the market, both have since rebounded together, suggesting renewed confidence among derivatives traders. The analyst cautions that a significant jump in open interest without a corresponding price advance, or worse, with a price decline, would point to an overleveraged environment. Related Reading: Two Forces Can Launch Bitcoin To $1 Million, Says Mike Novogratz Conversely, price stability or gains above $120,000 while open interest holds steady or declines slightly would be a healthier sign, indicating the move is supported by actual buying rather than excessive leverage. At present, the intraday trend remains bullish, but the sustainability of this move depends on whether leverage levels stabilize as Bitcoin tests resistance. Traders are likely to focus on how BTC behaves around the $120,000 mark in the coming days, with open interest dynamics serving as a key signal for the next directional move. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s recent rally pushed the cryptocurrency to retest the $122,000 level before facing a pullback. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at approximately $119,053, marking a short-term correction after reclaiming significant highs earlier in the week. The move comes as traders and analysts watch closely for signs of market strength or weakness at current price levels. One metric drawing attention is Binance’s share of global trading volume. According to CryptoQuant analyst BorisVest, the exchange’s dominance in trading activity provides valuable context for interpreting Bitcoin’s performance at all-time highs (ATHs). By comparing volume distribution across exchanges during previous ATH periods, the analysis seeks to determine whether the broader market is participating in the rally or if activity is concentrated on a single platform. Related Reading: Bitcoin-Money Supply Link Is A Myth, Glassnode Researcher Reveals Bitcoin Exchange Volume Concentration and Market Signals BorisVest’s review found that during the first ATH in 2024, global market volumes were elevated, and Binance’s trading activity was more than double that of all other exchanges combined. When Bitcoin retested its ATH later that year, overall market volumes increased across multiple platforms, yet Binance maintained its lead in total trading share. In contrast, when Bitcoin set a new record in mid-2025, total market volume did not show a significant increase compared to previous rallies. While Binance still recorded nearly twice the trading volume of other exchanges combined, the absence of a wider market volume expansion raised concerns. The analyst noted that historically, ATHs supported by broad volume growth tend to indicate stronger market conviction. A lack of participation from other exchanges could signal potential challenges in sustaining higher prices over the coming months. On-Chain Patterns Suggest Gradual Market Progress In a separate assessment, CryptoQuant analyst Avocado onchain examined Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), a metric tracking the movement of long-dormant coins. The indicator recently turned lower after a brief rise, with Bitcoin’s price trading within a sideways range. Historically, increases in Binary CDD have been linked to selling pressure from long-term holders, often leading to corrections. However, current market conditions, shaped by changes in custody solutions, over-the-counter trading activity, and institutional investment strategies, make interpreting CDD spikes more complex. Avocado onchain highlighted that in recent cycles, Binary CDD rises have been followed by either prolonged sideways trading or moderate corrections. The current data supports what the analyst describes as a “stair-step” rally, where the market advances gradually while cooling short-term speculative activity. This pattern, if sustained, could prevent rapid depletion of buying momentum and allow for more stable long-term growth. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retraces Below $120,000: Is Coinbase Selling To Blame? Other on-chain data suggests that selling from long-term holders remains subdued, indicating limited pressure to exit positions at current price levels. This aligns with the view that while near-term movements may be range-bound, the broader trend still holds the potential for future upside, contingent on broader participation and sustained investor demand. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has continued its upward momentum over the past week, reclaiming price levels close to its all-time high. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading above $120,000, only a short distance from the record of more than $123,000. Over the last seven days, the asset has posted a gain of approximately 5.1%, placing it among the stronger performers in the digital asset market. Amid the price movement, on-chain data from the TRON network’s USDT transfers is offering insights into current market behavior. CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha analyzed TRC-20 USDT transaction flows and identified patterns that may serve as potential indicators of Bitcoin price shifts. By categorizing transactions into six size groups, ranging from retail trades of $100 to large “super whale” transfers exceeding $10 million, the analysis aims to distinguish between everyday market activity and institutional-scale transactions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run At Risk? Binance Whale-To-Exchange Flow Signals Price Correction Large USDT Transfers as a Market Signal Taha’s research notes that when transactions exceeding $10 million in USDT on the TRON network surpass $5 billion in a single day, this often coincides with significant profit-taking in Bitcoin. Such activity typically involves converting BTC into USDT, followed by transferring the stablecoins to private wallets, reducing buying pressure in the spot market. Past examples include July 16, when $10M+ USDT transfers reached $5.2 billion, followed by a 4.5% decline in BTC, and July 23, when $5.8 billion in similar transfers preceded a 3.8% drop within 48 hours. Current data, however, shows a lack of such large-scale transactions, suggesting that major holders are not actively selling into stablecoins at present. This absence of substantial whale outflows may indicate that large investors are maintaining positions rather than exiting the market. Bitcoin Shifting Market Participation and Potential Breakout Scenarios A separate analysis from CryptoQuant’s ShayanMarkets examined the average executed order size in Bitcoin futures markets, providing another perspective on participation trends. This metric, which divides total traded volume by the number of executed orders, helps identify whether activity is being driven by retail participants or larger, institutional traders. Data from late 2024 and early 2025 showed periods of whale dominance, which coincided with strong rallies. In contrast, recent weeks have seen a rise in smaller, retail-sized orders, while whale-driven trades have diminished. This shift suggests that large-scale buyers may be holding positions acquired at lower price levels or waiting for new market conditions before re-entering with significant volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Futures Bias Turns Neutral As OI Net Position Hits Zero – Details Historically, extended whale dominance near market highs has often been associated with distribution phases, where large holders take profits. The current absence of such behavior leaves open the possibility of a bullish breakout above Bitcoin’s previous all-time high, provided that renewed selling pressure from large investors does not emerge in the near term. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a period of downward movement after briefly setting a new all-time high earlier last month. Over the past week, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has declined by nearly 4%, trading at $113,993 at the time of writing. This represents a drop of approximately 7.2% from the peak price of above $123,000 reached in July. The decline has sparked renewed discussion among analysts about the asset’s current price discovery phase and what it could mean for the remainder of 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Secretly Tracking This Market Signal: Weiss Crypto Bitcoin Price Discovery and the Potential for Q4 Gains CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen shared his latest assessment of Bitcoin’s market performance, noting that while the recent pullback appears significant, it primarily reflects technical market conditions. In his post on the QuickTake platform, he explained that a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, technical indicators turning bearish, and liquidation events has contributed to the decline. However, he described the ongoing situation as a “technical correction” within Bitcoin’s longer-term bullish structure. Despite the short-term weakness, analysts remain focused on Bitcoin’s price discovery process. This phase, according to Oinonen, is essential in establishing the asset’s fair market value as supply and demand interact in the market. Following the all-time high of $123,400 on July 14, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating, potentially setting the stage for further upward movement later in the year. “Bitcoin has historically performed well in the fourth quarter,” Oinonen noted, suggesting that a return to its previous peak and even a potential move toward $200,000 could be on the horizon if historical patterns hold. Additionally, the analyst pointed to Binance’s high stablecoin reserves as a factor that may influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. These reserves represent capital that could flow into Bitcoin and other digital assets if market sentiment improves. A positive shift in buying activity, combined with Bitcoin’s reflexive market behavior, could support further gains, although the extent to which this would benefit altcoins remains uncertain. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Losing Steam? Analysts Warn of Fragile Market Support Caution Over Negative Coinbase Premium Signals While some market participants anticipate a possible rebound later this year, other analysts are urging caution. Another CryptoQuant contributor, known as BQYoutube, highlighted a recent change in the Coinbase Premium Index, a metric comparing prices on Coinbase versus other exchanges. Since June 30, the premium has shifted to negative, indicating weaker buying pressure from US-based investors. “Historically, stronger Bitcoin rallies have coincided with a positive Coinbase Premium,” BQYouTube wrote, suggesting that traders may want to wait for signs of renewed spot demand before expecting a sustainable uptrend. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a steady price decline over the past week, falling by approximately 3.7% as trading activity shows signs of a possible sell-off or profit-taking phase. After peaking above $123,000 earlier last month, the leading cryptocurrency has been trading within the $113,000 to $114,000 range in the past day. At the time of writing, BTC is valued at $114,420, reflecting uncertainty in market momentum. Market analysts point to weakening liquidity and inconsistent institutional demand as key factors contributing to the price drop. A recent analysis shared by Arab Chain, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, highlights several on-chain dynamics that have limited Bitcoin’s ability to maintain price stability despite reduced available supply. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Trapped: ‘Nothing To Do Until October’ Liquidity Constraints and Market Fragility According to Arab Chain’s analysis, a sharp collapse in the liquidity inventory ratio began in mid-July, falling to levels representing just over three months of available supply on major trading platforms. This metric tracks how much Bitcoin is accessible for sale relative to the pace of market activity. Normally, reduced supply would lead to upward price pressure. However, Arab Chain notes that insufficient new demand left the market vulnerable, resulting in the opposite effect. “When liquidity is thin and there is no consistent buying activity from large investors or ETFs, even small sell orders can lead to significant price drops,” Arab Chain explained. This behavior mirrors “thin market” conditions, where limited order book depth magnifies volatility and makes prices more susceptible to sudden downward moves. The analysis suggests that market fragility could persist unless fresh demand enters the market. Historically, periods of constrained liquidity combined with a lack of large-scale buyers have led to prolonged corrections in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. ETF Demand Volatility and Weak Accumulation Another factor influencing the recent decline has been the erratic demand for Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Arab Chain observed sharp fluctuations in ETF inflows, with rapid surges followed by strong outflows, leaving no consistent institutional support to stabilize prices. This inconsistent participation from ETFs, which have become a major driver of Bitcoin demand since their approval, contributed to weaker price resilience during sell-offs. Additionally, on-chain data showed that “smart portfolios,” or high-value addresses typically associated with strategic accumulation, exhibited only modest buying activity during the recent downturn. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Selling More Aggressively As Bull Cycle Matures: Risk Appetite Fades? Although accumulation signals long-term confidence, its slow and limited pace failed to counterbalance selling pressure in real time. This lack of immediate demand further weakened market support. Additionally, while investors closely monitor liquidity conditions, ETF flows, and long-term holder activity for signs of a potential rebound. Analysts suggest that sustained institutional buying or an uptick in accumulation from large addresses could help restore stability. Until then, Bitcoin may remain in a vulnerable position, with its price movement largely dependent on shifts in demand and available liquidity. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin experienced a pullback over the weekend, briefly dipping to $112,296 on Saturday before stabilizing around $114,420 at the time of writing. The asset has seen a nearly 4% decline in the past week, marking one of the more notable short-term corrections in recent weeks. Market analysts suggest that, while short-term volatility persists, Bitcoin’s broader outlook remains influenced by whale activity and long-term holder behavior. Recent on-chain data provided by CryptoQuant highlights significant movement among high-volume Bitcoin traders. Crazzyblockk, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, analyzed transactions of 1,000 BTC or more and identified a pattern in where large-scale investors, often referred to as whales, prefer to trade. The data shows Binance is the dominant exchange for these transactions, processing both the highest total volume and the largest number of individual whale-level trades across the market. Related Reading: Top Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Trapped: ‘Nothing To Do Until October’ Binance Emerges as Primary Venue for Whale Transactions According to Crazzyblockk’s analysis, Binance leads other exchanges by a substantial margin when it comes to whale activity. Over 30 million BTC have moved through Binance in both inflows and outflows, far exceeding figures recorded on competing platforms such as HTX Global and Kraken. While volume alone highlights the scale of transactions, Binance’s leadership becomes even clearer when measuring transaction count. Data indicates more than 56 million whale transactions have taken place on Binance, compared to roughly 16 million on HTX, making it the most active platform for high-frequency, large-scale trades. This dominance suggests Binance provides unmatched liquidity for big players in the market. As Crazzyblockk noted, “The concentration of whale activity on Binance provides it with unparalleled liquidity. For traders, this means tighter spreads and a greater ability to execute large orders with minimal price impact.” The findings indicate that monitoring Binance’s order book can offer valuable insights into institutional sentiment and potential market movements. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Sustain Bullish Trend Despite Correction While whale activity dominates short-term price movements, broader market sentiment remains supported by long-term holders (LTH). Another CryptoQuant analyst, Abrahamchart, pointed out that long-term investors continue to hold significant unrealized profits, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio staying above 0.5. This indicates that long-term holders are not rushing to sell, helping sustain price support near the $104,000 range. Short-term holders (STH), on the other hand, appear to be taking profits during rallies, contributing to temporary selling pressure and minor corrections such as the latest dip below $113,000. Related Reading: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Bleed Over $800 Million: Second‑Largest Exit Ever – Details Abrahamchart noted that while the short-term market may experience fluctuations, the underlying trend remains intact due to the conviction of long-term participants. Featured iamegc created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing renewed downward pressure as it struggles to maintain levels above $115,000. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading around $115,745, down approximately 2.2% in the past 24 hours and nearly 6% below its July all-time high of $123,000. The latest market movement has raised questions about short-term price stability, particularly amid growing concerns over weak structural support in the current trading zone. Recent data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant suggests that while long-term holders remain largely profitable, short-term sentiment has shifted. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? Cooling Futures Market Hints at Possible Breakout Bitcoin UTXO Data Points to Changing Investor Behavior Activity among Bitcoin Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs), a metric that tracks coins being spent either in profit or at a loss, indicates that many investors are beginning to react to smaller price drops, potentially signaling increased market uncertainty. In a recent analysis on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, contributor Darkfost shared insights on how UTXO activity can reflect broader market sentiment. “This chart, based on UTXOs from block data, highlights the number of UTXOs spent either in profit or in loss,” the analyst wrote, noting that this approach focuses on transaction count rather than value, helping filter out price-based noise. Historically, Bitcoin has seen a dominance of UTXOs spent in profit, with patient holders benefiting from long-term appreciation. Between July 11 and 13, the ratio of profitable UTXOs compared to those spent at a loss surged above 10,000, meaning for every loss-making spend, there were over ten thousand profitable ones. However, this ratio has since declined to around 500, suggesting that some investors are now closing positions at a loss even with minor price retracements. This change, according to Darkfost, may indicate short-term selling pressure despite the overall profitable status of most holders. Weak Support Structure Adds to Downside Risk Another CryptoQuant analyst, Maartunn, highlighted structural weaknesses in Bitcoin’s recent price surge. On July 10, BTC rapidly climbed from $112,000 to $115,800, but this upward move left little on-chain support in the price range. Bitcoin Teleported from $112 to $115.8K – But There’s Thin Air Below “From a technical point of view, there’s no past resistance or consolidation that could now act as support. If this final support area breaks, price could move down quickly.” – By @JA_Maartun pic.twitter.com/a3hQoANfDc — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 1, 2025 “The move happened so quickly that no support levels were formed,” the analyst explained. “If momentum drops or sellers step in, the price could fall just as fast as it rose.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Calm Before the Storm? Binance Data Points to Big Shift Ahead With Bitcoin now hovering just above its last known on-chain support zone, analysts caution that a failure to hold this level could accelerate the decline. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating a period of heightened uncertainty as its price struggles to regain upward momentum following recent declines. Over the past 24 hours, the world’s largest cryptocurrency recorded a dip to $114,326 before slightly recovering above the $115,000 mark. Despite this rebound, the asset remains under pressure, with recent market movements highlighting potential shifts in trader sentiment and long-term holder behavior. Data shared by market analysts indicates that derivatives activity is playing a significant role in current price fluctuations. Insights from the analytics platform CryptoQuant suggest that sudden changes in leveraged positions and aggressive selling pressure on major exchanges are contributing to the ongoing volatility. At the same time, on-chain data shows an increase in activity from long-term Bitcoin holders, suggesting a structural change in the market that may influence future price dynamics. Related Reading: Bitcoin New Investor Dominance Rises – No Signs of Mass Profit-Taking Yet Leveraged Positions Under Pressure on Major Exchanges According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, Bitcoin’s decline below $115,000 coincided with a notable reduction in open interest on Binance, dropping from $14 billion to under $13.5 billion in a short span. This 4% decline in open interest within a single day is often linked to liquidation events, where leveraged positions are closed automatically due to margin calls. Taha explained that many traders appear to have exited long positions as the price fell, potentially triggering a cascade of sell orders and amplifying market pressure. Net Taker Volume on Binance also turned sharply negative, nearing -$160 million, suggesting an increase in aggressive selling activity. This trend reflects fear-driven reactions among market participants, particularly retail traders, who may have chosen to close or reverse positions amid expectations of further price declines. Despite this wave of selling, Taha noted the possibility of a short-term rebound. A reduction in leveraged long positions combined with an increase in short exposure could create conditions for a market rebalancing or a short squeeze if selling pressure eases in the coming days. Dormant Bitcoin Wallets Show Signs of Major Reallocation In addition to short-term derivatives market dynamics, other analysts are pointing to broader structural changes in Bitcoin’s investor base. CryptoQuant analyst OnChainSchool highlighted that in 2024, more than 255,000 BTC previously inactive for over seven years were reactivated. In 2025, this trend has continued, with over 215,000 BTC already moving within the first several months of the year. The average monthly movement of long-dormant coins has risen from 4,900 BTC in 2023 to over 30,000 BTC in 2025. Transaction sizes have also grown significantly, from around 162 BTC to over 1,000 BTC per transfer. According to OnChainSchool, these patterns indicate that large-scale holders, rather than retail investors, are reallocating capital on a scale not seen in previous cycles. The analyst suggested that beyond price fluctuations, these shifts may have long-term implications for market liquidity and Bitcoin’s future ownership distribution. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to face resistance below the $120,000 level, with price action showing little momentum to push the asset toward a new high. At the time of writing, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading above $118,000, reflecting a slight pullback of around 3.6% from its most recent all-time high. With the asset still in a tight range, investors are watching whether Bitcoin can establish a breakout or if a price correction is more likely in the near term. Meanwhile, recent on-chain analysis has highlighted an area of potential concern in Bitcoin’s price history that may point to a retest of lower levels before further upward movement. Related Reading: Bitcoin Overheating Signals Easing – Is A Second-Half Rally Ahead? Analyst Highlights “Unrealized Gap” in Bitcoin’s Price Movement According to data shared on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, the $111,000–$115,000 range remains an untested zone that could see renewed activity in the future, despite broader market optimism. CryptoQuant contributor and on-chain analyst CryptoMe has identified what he calls a “gap” in Bitcoin’s recent trading behavior. The analyst noted that between July 9 and 14, Bitcoin experienced a rapid rally from $110,000 to $123,000 without significant trading activity in the $111,000–$117,000 range. On-chain data during that period reportedly showed limited retail participation, with most buying pressure coming from institutional players. “This rapid upward move created a visible gap in the UTxO histogram,” CryptoMe explained, adding: Few transactions occurred in that range, meaning unrealized outputs were not established. Historically, such gaps have often been revisited by the market, filling those levels over time. The analyst also mentioned that part of the gap has already been addressed with price action touching $115,000–$117,000 in recent sessions, but the lower section around $111,000 remains unfilled. Historical Patterns Suggest Possible Retest of $111K Drawing from Bitcoin’s 16-year price history, CryptoMe pointed out that similar scenarios have occurred before. For instance, in 2024, Bitcoin skipped the $70,000–$80,000 range on its way to $110,000 but eventually revisited and filled that gap. Related Reading: $141,000 Could Be Next Key Bitcoin Resistance If Price Breaks Higher, Report Says Based on these recurring patterns, the analyst believes the $111,000 level may see a retest, even in a generally bullish environment. “What remains uncertain,” CryptoMe said, “is whether this will happen as a direct drop from current levels or after a further climb, potentially toward $140,000, followed by a correction.” The analyst advises market participants to consider the possibility of a pullback when planning their risk exposure and leverage positions, noting: But either way, I believe the gap will be filled! So investors should know that, even in this bullish environment, a pullback toward 111k is still possible, and they should adjust their positions, leverage, and risk levels accordingly. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face resistance just under the $120,000 mark, struggling to build enough momentum for a breakout. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has remained in a tight trading range above $118,000, representing a slight decline of nearly 4% from its most recent all-time high. Despite the lack of upward movement, analysts suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a phase of energy consolidation rather than signaling an imminent downturn. According to data from CryptoQuant, two separate market analysts have shared their perspectives on BTC’s current cycle, focusing on long-term valuation metrics and investor activity patterns that could influence the next significant price movement. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Begin Distribution: Mirroring Fall 2024 Cycle Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Signals Potential Upside Momentum CryptoQuant contributor CoinCare highlighted the role of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio in assessing Bitcoin’s position in its current market cycle. The MVRV ratio measures whether BTC is trading above or below its perceived fair value, with readings below 1 often marking market bottoms and readings above 3.7 typically associated with market peaks. In a recent post titled “The MVRV Indicator is Converging Toward Its 365-Day Moving Average. What Comes Next”, CoinCare explained that Bitcoin’s MVRV is currently at 2.2, gradually moving closer to its 365-day moving average. “Historically, when the MVRV ratio converges toward its long-term average, it tends to rebound and move toward overvalued territory, often accompanying price growth,” the analyst noted. Based on historical patterns, CoinCare expects BTC to continue consolidating before attempting another upward push, potentially retesting overvaluation levels if buying activity strengthens. New Investor Activity Indicates Healthy Late Bull Cycle A separate analysis from another CryptoQuant analyst, AxelAdlerJr, examined Bitcoin’s market structure based on investor dominance metrics. The data showed that new investor dominance currently sits at 30%, significantly below levels that previously indicated overheated market conditions, which reached 64% and 72% during local price peaks in March and December 2024, respectively. According to AxelAdlerJr, the steady increase in activity from new market participants since July 2024 suggests that fresh liquidity is entering the market, supporting ongoing bullish sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Drops Among US Investors—Is a Price Correction Coming? At the same time, long-term holders are selling moderately, with a coefficient of 0.3, meaning that the supply from coins held for three years or more is being absorbed without triggering sharp market corrections. “This dynamic indicates that while new buyers are active, there is still space before the market reaches euphoric levels, which typically occur when new investor dominance exceeds 60-70%,” the analyst stated. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) remains within a tight trading range following a recent pullback from its all-time high. At the time of writing, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is priced at $118,570, reflecting a 0.3% increase over the past 24 hours. Recent analysis shared on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform by market contributor ShayanMarkets highlights a noticeable change in Bitcoin’s futures market activity. According to the analyst, while previous price surges in the $70,000–$90,000 range were marked by significant speculative pressure and leverage buildup, the current trend shows signs of cooling despite elevated price levels. This shift could play a key role in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin’s Final Leg Is Near – Time To Be ‘Cautiously Optimistic’? Bitcoin Futures Market Shows Signs of Normalization ShayanMarkets explained that during past rallies, the futures market displayed what he called “heating and overheating phases,” often visible in red clusters on the volume bubble map. These periods typically led to corrections or temporary price consolidations as leveraged positions unwound. However, the current data reflects a different setup. Despite Bitcoin remaining near record highs, futures market activity has transitioned to neutral and cooling phases, shown by grey and green bubbles on the chart. The analyst noted that this cooling phase could be a sign of de-risking among traders, as speculative activity eases while spot demand supports the price. In a statement on QuickTake, ShayanMarkets said: This reset in leverage, despite BTC staying above $100K, signals healthier market conditions as demand shifts toward organic buying rather than high-risk speculative bets. The analyst added that if the reduced speculative pressure continues, it could provide the foundation for another significant price increase, potentially setting Bitcoin up to break past its previous all-time high above $123K. Long-Term Whales Take Profits Amid Price Stability Meanwhile, another analysis from CryptoQuant contributor CoinCare revealed selling activity from long-term Bitcoin holders, often referred to as “whales,” who have maintained their positions for over a decade. According to CoinCare, some of these holders, including those who first accumulated Bitcoin around 2013, have started to liquidate a portion of their holdings. This selling activity aligns with the historical timeline of Bitcoin’s sharp rise from under $100 to roughly $1,000 during that period, representing a potential 117,900% return for early adopters. Such profit-taking from early investors is not unusual during periods of elevated prices and does not necessarily indicate a shift in long-term market sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rejected At $120,000: Binance Whale Inflows Suggest Possible Drop To $110,000 Historically, whale activity has influenced short-term volatility but has also contributed to market redistribution, allowing newer participants to enter the market. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a narrow price range, showing limited upward movement over the past week. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is priced around $117,719, representing a 1% decline in the past 24 hours and a 4.2% drop from its recent all-time high above $123,000. Amid this price performance, a recent analysis shared on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform by contributor BorisVest sheds light on possible underlying market dynamics influencing Bitcoin’s current state. According to the analyst, data from Binance futures suggests that despite muted volatility, certain trading patterns could be shaping BTC’s near-term direction. These observations have prompted discussions about whether market makers are deliberately maintaining a controlled range before a significant price move occurs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Drops Among US Investors—Is a Price Correction Coming? Binance Data Suggests Strategic Positioning BorisVest highlighted that Open Interest on Binance has remained steady between $13 billion and $14 billion over the past 20 days. This stability indicates that while new positions are not rapidly increasing, existing trades are being actively maintained. “Such behavior in a range environment often signals silent accumulation or strategic stalling,” the analyst wrote, suggesting that larger players may be carefully managing exposure during this consolidation phase. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, currently at 0.9, points to increased selling pressure from market takers. However, Bitcoin’s price has not experienced a sharp decline despite this activity, indicating that passive buyers are absorbing the sell orders. BorisVest added that the Funding Rate, hovering around 0.01, reflects a lack of aggressive leverage from either long or short positions. This could mean that institutional or high-volume traders are building positions gradually, avoiding extremes that typically lead to rapid price swings. Bitcoin Possible Downside Shakeout Before a Breakout The analysis also examined Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data on Binance, which shows persistent selling in futures markets. Yet, despite ongoing sell-side activity, Bitcoin continues to resist significant downward movement. According to BorisVest, this could set the stage for a potential liquidity-driven shakeout. He suggested that BTC might temporarily dip toward $110,000 to clear out weak long positions and attract additional short interest. This could pave the way for a stronger, more sustainable breakout in the future. Related Reading: Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Market Sits Between Accumulation And Distribution While these metrics do not guarantee an imminent breakout or breakdown, they point to a fragile equilibrium in Bitcoin’s market structure. Historically, prolonged consolidation phases in BTC have often preceded sharp moves in either direction. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Rakbank, officially known as the National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah, has set a notable precedent in the UAE by becoming the first conventional bank in the country to offer crypto trading services to retail customers. This move highlights a significant shift in the banking sector within the region, reflecting the increasing integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional finance. Rakbank’s customers can now directly engage in crypto transactions via the bank’s mobile banking app, accessing services such as buying, selling, and swapping cryptocurrencies directly from their UAE dirham accounts. Related Reading: Crypto Hype Cools—Analyst Predicts When The Next Altcoin Surge Will Start Efficient Access to Crypto Assets In a carefully structured partnership, Rakbank collaborated with Bitpanda, a renowned global digital asset platform regulated by Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA). Through Bitpanda’s regional entity, Bitpanda Broker MENA DMCC, Rakbank has integrated crypto trading capabilities into its existing digital banking framework. The cooperation ensures transactions are efficiently executed in AED, removing common obstacles such as foreign exchange fees and complicated transfer procedures. With Rakbank’s newly launched crypto brokerage service, customers avoid many hurdles traditionally associated with crypto exchanges. Users transact directly through their Rakbank savings or current accounts, bypassing lengthy onboarding and fund transfer processes typical of standalone crypto trading platforms. This arrangement significantly streamlines the crypto experience, making it accessible to a broader range of customers by reducing complexity and enhancing convenience. Raheel Ahmed, Rakbank’s Group CEO, highlighted the strategic importance of this launch, stating that it aligns closely with the bank’s mission of digital innovation complemented by a human touch. Ahmed also emphasized that the integration with Bitpanda allows Rakbank to provide customers a regulated, simplified, and secure path into digital asset trading. Ahmed added: We recognize the opportunity this solution will provide to  customers in the UAE, as we believe they deserve a more efficient and seamless crypto buying, selling and swapping journey that is fully regulated and entirely in AED. A Regulatory Milestone for UAE Banking The collaboration between Rakbank and Bitpanda signifies a pivotal moment for regulatory advancement in digital asset adoption within the UAE’s banking industry. Lukas Enzersdorfer-Konrad, Deputy CEO of Bitpanda, noted the significance of this partnership, describing it as a critical step toward establishing crypto services in a regulated, straightforward, and trustworthy manner. Related Reading: Crypto Market’s Fate Hangs On The Last Days Of July He expressed that integrating digital asset capabilities into established banks is representative of the future landscape of finance, marked by compliance and customer-centric simplicity. Initially, access to Rakbank’s crypto services is being offered on an invitation-only basis, with plans for a gradual rollout to a broader customer base in the forthcoming months. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to trade below its record high set earlier this month, hovering above the $119,000 mark. While price action over the past week has shown only a modest 0.3% gain, analysts suggest the market may be nearing a turning point. The sideways movement in price has not deterred the broader bullish outlook, but on-chain indicators now suggest caution may be warranted. One such indicator comes from CryptoQuant’s QuickTake contributor Arab Chain, who flagged potential overheating in Bitcoin’s current market structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH Realized Price Chart Reveals Key Defense Zones Amid Volatility Bitcoin Bullish Trend Persists, but Signs Point to Caution In a recent post, the analyst highlighted the behavior of the Bull and Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which now sits in a zone typically associated with strong bullish trends. However, its proximity to the so-called “overheated bull” range has raised concerns about a possible correction on the horizon. The indicator’s historical pattern suggests this zone often precedes a price cooldown, leading investors to consider profit-taking strategies. Arab Chain noted that despite the bullish structure, the indicator’s advance toward overheated territory could prompt speculators to close positions. “The proximity of overheated zones suggests that this is not the right time for a major purchase,” the analyst explained. The insight reflects the broader sentiment that market participants may opt for a wait-and-see approach, anticipating a more favorable re-entry after a correction. Additionally, while the 30-day to 365-day moving averages still support a continued uptrend, they may also signal that a short-term top is forming unless disrupted by new market catalysts. Retail Interest Remains Muted as Institutional Demand Grows Supporting this view, another CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, emphasized the role of institutional activity in driving the current cycle. Kesmeci explained that retail investors have reduced their exposure to Bitcoin since early 2023, while large investors have increased their holdings, particularly from early 2024 onward. “This time, the source of the Bitcoin rally is not retail — the big players are in the driver’s seat,” he wrote. This accumulation by high-volume wallets, likely linked to institutions or ETFs, highlights a shift from previous cycles dominated by retail behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin Final Push? Wave (5) Could Deliver A Spectacular Breakout Kesmeci further pointed to Google Trends data showing that search interest in “Bitcoin” remains subdued compared to previous bull runs. The absence of widespread retail excitement contrasts with the intense public engagement seen during Bitcoin’s surge in 2021. According to Kesmeci, the quiet phase may indicate that retail has not yet entered the market en masse — a stage that historically signals the final leg of a bull cycle. “The crowd has not awakened yet,” he noted, adding that “smart money is currently on stage — and most people are still watching from the sidelines.” Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to consolidate just below the $120,000 mark, exhibiting restrained momentum despite previous rallies that pushed it to all-time highs above $123,000. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has fluctuated between a low of $117,422 and a high of $119,197, ultimately trading at $118,578 at the time of writing. While price movement has remained relatively stable, on-chain indicators suggest that broader market sentiment is still in a transitional phase, with neither excessive enthusiasm nor panic selling present among investors. Related Reading: Are Traders Walking Into a Bitcoin Bull Trap at $118K? Here’s What the Data Shows Bitcoin Market Signals Suggest Ongoing Expansion Phase A recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Gaah highlights a key development in the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI), a composite tool used to track phases in Bitcoin’s market cycle. According to Gaah, the IBCI has returned to the “Distribution” zone, an area historically associated with the late stages of a bull market. However, this return is moderate, as the index has reached only 80% of the zone’s upper boundary, falling short of the full saturation levels typically observed at major market peaks. The IBCI’s moderate level indicates that Bitcoin is in an expansionary stage, but without the typical signs of overheating. Gaah noted that two critical components of the IBCI, the Puell Multiple and the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), remain below their midpoint levels. This suggests that short-term speculation and aggressive profit-taking, often seen in late-stage bull markets, have not yet fully emerged in the current cycle. As a result, while caution may be warranted, the broader trend does not yet resemble a typical market top. The Puell Multiple, in particular, continues to hover near the “Discount” range, indicating that miner profitability remains moderate even with Bitcoin’s recent all-time high. This points to a valuation structure where network participants have not yet entered the excess phase that typically precedes a market correction. Gaah emphasized that the current state of the IBCI reflects underlying market strength supported by fundamentals, not speculative fervor. However, he also warned that the market is in a high-risk correction zone in the short term and should be monitored closely for shifts in retail behavior and miner activity. Short-Term Holders Offer Support Around Realized Price Adding to the discussion, another CryptoQuant analyst, Amr Taha, observed that Bitcoin has maintained price stability near the realized price of the UTXO Age Band for 1-day to 1-week holders, currently around $118,300. This metric is often interpreted as a dynamic support level that reflects the average cost basis for recent buyers. According to Taha, the absence of capitulation among newer holders implies that recent market entrants remain confident, reinforcing the current price range as a psychological and technical support zone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hovers Below $120K as On-Chain Indicators Point to Slowing Demand Together, these insights suggest that while Bitcoin may face near-term volatility, broader indicators do not yet reflect an overheated market. Instead, current metrics imply a market that continues to expand at a measured pace, with room for potential upside if fundamentals remain intact. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin continues to hover below its all-time high, with current trading levels near $118,000 reflecting a 0.6% daily drop and a 3.8% pullback from the peak above $123,000 recorded earlier this month. While the broader trend remains uncertain, analysts have assessed on-chain activity for signs of the next major move. Recent data from CryptoQuant analysts highlights a divide between retail and institutional behavior across leading exchanges, raising questions about potential profit-taking or strategic accumulation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Must Defend This Key Support For $180,000 Year-End Target, Analyst Says Bitcoin Retail Traders Sell into Strength, While Whales Accumulate On the one hand, short-term holder (STH) behavior on Binance suggests some market participants are opting to take profits following the asset’s strong rally. On the other hand, Kraken has recorded a sharp outflow of Bitcoin, a movement typically associated with whale activity or long-term accumulation. This contrasting activity across platforms suggests a split in market sentiment, with retail traders potentially trimming their exposure and larger players preparing for sustained upside. According to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, the Binance Exchange Inflow Ratio for Short-Term Holders recently crossed the 0.4 level, historically linked to increased retail selling pressure. These STHs, who typically hold Bitcoin for fewer than 155 days, tend to deposit funds to exchanges during periods of price strength to lock in gains. The spike above this threshold may indicate a growing tendency among retail investors to exit positions in anticipation of volatility. In contrast, the same analysis pointed to significant outflows from Kraken, with over 9,600 BTC withdrawn on July 22, one of the highest single-day outflows seen in recent months. Taha interpreted this as a potential signal of whale accumulation, with institutional or high-net-worth participants removing assets from exchange custody, often in preparation for long-term storage. This divergence in behavior between Binance and Kraken highlights the differing strategies employed by market segments, with retail users leaning toward short-term positioning and whales opting for long-term accumulation. Binance Reserve Trends Highlight Strengthening Profit Margins Adding another layer to the evolving market picture, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost shared that Binance’s unrealized profit on its Bitcoin reserves has hit an all-time high of approximately 60,000 BTC. This figure has grown despite a gradual decline in total BTC reserves held on the platform, which have fallen from 631,000 BTC in September 2024 to 574,000 BTC as of now. A portion of these holdings, around 16,000 BTC, is locked in custodial wallets to back the BTCB token on the BNB Chain, serving operational purposes. Darkfost emphasized that decreasing exchange reserves are often interpreted as a sign of investor confidence, reflecting a preference to store Bitcoin in personal wallets rather than leaving it on centralized platforms. Related Reading: Trump Media’s $2 Billion Bitcoin Buy Sparks Surge In Stock Price The rise in unrealized profit amid falling reserves may indicate that while outflows persist, the remaining holdings have appreciated significantly in value, highlighting the platform’s strengthened position. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s price remains in a zone where it is seeing little upward momentum as it continues to hover below its recent all-time high. After reaching above $123,000 earlier this month, the asset has pulled back slightly, trading at $119,343 at the time of writing. This represents a 2% gain over the past week but still leaves BTC roughly 3% below its recent peak. The muted price action reflects a market that appears to be consolidating amid diverging signals from on-chain indicators and regional demand metrics. Recent analysis from CryptoQuant contributors points to a weakening appetite for Bitcoin in both the US and South Korea, two markets that have historically contributed significant trading volume. A closer look at exchange activity and regional pricing premiums suggests a potential shift in investor behavior, as profit-taking becomes more prominent and traders appear hesitant to buy at current levels. Related Reading: Bitcoin Correlation To Altcoins Is Collapsing: A Warning Sign? Regional Premiums Point to Lower Demand from US and South Korea According to a post by CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain, the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other global exchanges, has failed to climb significantly despite BTC reaching record highs in July. The index remained around levels seen in June, suggesting that US investors using Coinbase have not been aggressively buying Bitcoin during the rally. Arab Chain noted that the index’s movement toward negative territory alongside Bitcoin’s price increase may indicate profit-taking among American investors. This implies that some may be anticipating a correction before re-entering the market. Similarly, the Korea Premium Index has declined, signaling reduced demand from retail investors in South Korea. This index reflects the spread between Bitcoin’s price on Korean exchanges and global averages. The negative trend suggests Korean traders have been selling below the global average, with weak buying interest on local platforms. Arab Chain interprets this as retail traders possibly waiting for a discount to reenter the market, indicating caution among individual investors in Asia’s key crypto hub. Exchange Inflows Suggest Rising Sell Pressure Adding to the picture, another CryptoQuant contributor, ShayanMarkets, highlighted a notable development in BTC’s on-chain activity. The latest data reveals Bitcoin has experienced its largest net inflow to exchanges since July 2024. Typically, large inflows signal that holders are preparing to sell, increasing supply on trading platforms and contributing to potential downward price pressure. ShayanMarkets explained that this behavior, especially when occurring near all-time highs, may indicate institutional or fund-driven profit-taking. Such moves often align with efforts to reduce risk exposure during overextended market rallies. Historically, spikes in exchange inflows have been followed by price corrections, making this a trend to monitor closely. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holders Are Taking Profits—But Is the Top Still Far Away? However, the redistribution of capital from Bitcoin into other assets may benefit the broader crypto market. The analyst noted that altcoins could see renewed interest as funds rotate out of BTC. If the trend continues, traders may observe increased volatility and speculative movement across alternative tokens in the short term. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s recent price movement reflects a pause in the broader uptrend, with the asset trading at $117,901 following a near 5% weekly decline. While the current downturn may signal a cooling of investor enthusiasm, on-chain indicators suggest the market may still have room to expand before reaching an exhaustion point. Notably, activity among long-term holders and derivatives traders reveals continued interest and potential for price volatility. One of the standout indicators drawing attention is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders (LTH), which has climbed to a new high for 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Climbs, But NVT Indicator Sends a Surprising Signal SOPR Suggests Continued Room for Growth Before Cycle Peaks According to CryptoQuant analyst Gaah, this metric tracks the profitability of coins moved by holders who have kept their Bitcoin for more than 155 days. The latest reading shows that LTHs are beginning to sell at a profit, but the indicator has yet to reach historically critical levels associated with market tops. Gaah emphasized that although LTH SOPR has crossed the mid-range and currently sits slightly above 2.5, it remains well below the 4.0 threshold historically linked with macro tops in previous cycles. This implies that long-term investors are realizing gains, but not to an extent that would suggest market euphoria or widespread distribution. In past bull cycles, SOPR readings above 4.0 marked the onset of significant corrections or cycle tops. The gradual increase in profit-taking could indicate that the market is maturing while maintaining upward potential. Gaah notes that investors should interpret this as part of the natural progression of a bullish phase, though risks of correction still remain. The ongoing accumulation and realization patterns from LTHs provide insight into how confidence and caution can simultaneously exist in market behavior. Derivatives Market Remains Active Amid High Open Interest and Bullish Funding Rates In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain highlighted ongoing activity in the Bitcoin derivatives market as another crucial component of the current market landscape. Open interest, which represents the total number of outstanding futures contracts, remains elevated near $42 billion. This level, though slightly down from recent peaks, is still near historical highs and reflects strong trader participation. Arab Chain also highlighted the role of funding rates in shaping market sentiment. Currently, rising funding rates suggest dominance by long positions, indicating a bullish market environment. Related Reading: Hold On For Dear Life: This Bullish Bitcoin Metric Just Touched A 15-Year High When this sentiment is paired with high open interest, it may point to heightened risk of volatility, especially in an environment where leveraged trades are becoming more frequent. The analyst warned that a sudden price move could lead to widespread liquidations if funding becomes unsustainable, forcing exchanges to close out positions. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin’s upward price trajectory has slightly cooled, with the asset now trading just below the $119,000 mark, reflecting a 3% decline over the past week. The dip follows a sustained upward trend that has seen significant interest from both institutional and retail participants in recent months. The current pause in momentum may suggest a temporary rebalancing, with market participants potentially reassessing their positions. As price movement stabilizes, on-chain analysts have begun to highlight deeper structural shifts within Bitcoin’s blockchain activity. According to CryptoQuant contributor Avocado onchain, one key trend gaining attention is the continued decline in Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) count. While at first glance this might seem related to falling transaction volumes, the underlying cause points to a more strategic restructuring by institutional participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Metrics Flash Mixed Signals: Monthly Inflows Rise And Daily Outflows Start Slowing Institutional Consolidation Reshaping On-Chain Structure Avocado explained that since December 2024, Bitcoin’s UTXO count has steadily decreased, a development he attributes to growing over-the-counter (OTC) activity and consolidation efforts by large holders. These entities, primarily whales and institutional investors, are reportedly merging multiple UTXOs into fewer addresses, a process that increases on-chain efficiency and reflects a preference for long-term custody. “The post-ETF approval environment has driven more assets into secure wallets, moving funds off exchanges into institutional-grade custody,” he wrote. This structural shift suggests that long-term holders are preparing for extended exposure rather than immediate market participation. Instead of dispersing funds for frequent trades, these institutions are consolidating their Bitcoin holdings into larger ones, indicating reduced near-term liquidity but possibly greater long-term market stability. The impact is visible in the on-chain footprint, where the number of active UTXOs has not kept pace with prior bull cycles. Bitcoin Muted Retail Activity and Future Market Signals While institutional activity appears to be solidifying, retail investor behavior remains subdued. Avocado noted that, unlike previous cycles where retail-driven volume increases contributed to UTXO growth, the current rally lacks that widespread grassroots engagement. The number of newly created UTXOs has remained relatively flat, reinforcing the view that retail participation is yet to catch up. Looking ahead, the analyst suggests that any renewed wave of short-term speculation, often sparked by sharp price movements, could reignite retail interest. This would be reflected in increased UTXO creation, exchange activity, and possibly greater volatility. Until then, the market appears to be led primarily by long-term strategic accumulation. Related Reading: The Final Bitcoin Act: Here’s What To Expect As BTC Trends Sideways Despite the current slowdown in price, underlying metrics remain constructive. Exchange inflows are moderate, long-term holders continue to accumulate, and institutional capital flows persist. These factors suggest that the market is still in a consolidative phase, rather than signaling a reversal. Should retail participation return and on-chain activity broaden, Bitcoin could see renewed upside supported by both foundational demand and speculative inflows. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s recent price action has continued its upward trajectory, with the asset trading as high as above the $120,000 price mark in the past 24 hours. The move suggests persistent bullish momentum following a period of sharp decline earlier this week. As the price inches closer to its all-time high, on-chain data is starting to paint a picture of solid transactional support behind the price movement. In particular, analysts have begun highlighting a divergence between Bitcoin’s market value and its underlying network activity. One such observation comes from CryptoQuant analyst Sunflowr Quant, who shared insights in a recent QuickTake post examining the unusual behavior of the NVT Golden Cross indicator. This metric, typically expected to rise in tandem with price due to its function as a ratio between market cap and transaction volume, is currently declining, which Sunflowr attributes to a significant uptick in on-chain activity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Not Over Yet? Short-Term Holder MVRV Suggests Further Upside Bitcoin On-Chain Growth Suggests Underlying Network Strength According to Sunflowr, this inverse correlation between the rising BTC price and falling NVT Golden Cross may indicate that the current rally is driven more by actual usage and real transactions on the Bitcoin network rather than speculative trading. “A decline in the NVT ratio during a price increase implies that the transaction volume is rising at a faster pace than the market cap,” he wrote. “This can be interpreted as a sign that the rally is supported by real economic activity.” This observation aligns with the broader sentiment that healthy on-chain growth can serve as a foundation for more sustainable price increases. If transaction volumes are growing organically and not solely from derivatives speculation, it suggests that user adoption and financial utility are contributing to the price strength. Investors closely watching these indicators may find this a favorable environment, though caution remains as other metrics hint at evolving market dynamics. Holder Rotation Signals Potential Shift in Market Participation A separate analysis from CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech sheds light on another dimension of Bitcoin’s current market structure: holder behavior. In a post titled “Holder Rotation,” IT Tech notes that long-term holders, those who have held BTC for more than 155 days, have recently begun net distribution, meaning they’re selling more than accumulating. Conversely, short-term holders are showing net accumulation behavior once again, a dynamic often seen in late-stage rallies. This shift between long-term and short-term holders has historically served as a warning signal. Similar handoffs were observed in April 2021 and November 2023, both of which preceded local tops or cooling phases. While this doesn’t necessarily confirm a reversal, it highlights the need to monitor supporting metrics such as exchange inflows and funding rates. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trades Above $117K as Whale Deposits Decline and Stablecoin Inflows Rise “It’s a classic profit-taking pattern from seasoned wallets, while newer market participants may be entering due to rising prices,” IT Tech wrote. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView