Bitcoin continues to struggle to reclaim the $70,000 level, with persistent selling pressure keeping the market in a defensive posture. Price action has repeatedly failed to establish sustained momentum above this psychological threshold, reflecting cautious sentiment among both institutional and retail participants. While volatility has moderated compared with the sharp declines seen earlier in the cycle, the broader structure still suggests a market searching for direction rather than entering a clear recovery phase. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Losses Mirror Past Bottoms: Accumulation Continues Despite Pressure Recent on-chain data from a CryptoQuant analyst offers additional context by examining whale positioning. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC currently control approximately 4.483 million BTC as of February 16, 2026. Within this cohort, long-term holder whales — those holding coins for more than 155 days — dominate with roughly 3.196 million BTC, or about 71.3% of the total. Short-term whales, defined by holding periods under 155 days, account for around 1.287 million BTC, representing 28.7%. Although newer whales have modestly increased balances in recent months, structural control remains firmly with long-term holders. This imbalance suggests that while newer capital faces ongoing pressure, more established investors continue to anchor the market. Whether this dynamic supports stabilization or precedes further volatility remains an open question. Whale Cost Basis Signals Redistribution Rather Than Capitulation The analyst emphasizes that the most decisive signal comes from comparing realized price — the on-chain average acquisition cost — across different whale cohorts. Short-term holder (STH) whales currently show a realized price near $88,494, while long-term holder (LTH) whales maintain a significantly lower cost basis around $41,626. With Bitcoin trading close to $68,795, the contrast is pronounced. Newer whales are sitting on roughly a 22% unrealized loss, whereas long-term whales retain an estimated 65% profit margin. This asymmetry highlights a familiar market dynamic: recent capital is under pressure, while structurally entrenched holders still operate from a position of strength. When price declines accelerate, short-term whales historically tend to capitulate first, locking in losses. Recent realized profit data suggest this process has already intensified since Bitcoin’s October all-time high, with deeper negative spikes appearing as the correction progressed. Historically, similar configurations observed in 2019 and 2022 corresponded with redistribution phases rather than systemic collapse. Supply gradually shifted from lower-conviction participants toward stronger holders. The key threshold remains the LTH realized price near $41.6K. As long as Bitcoin trades above that level, structural capitulation is not confirmed. Instead, the current phase appears to reflect conviction transfer rather than widespread market destruction. Related Reading: Hyperunit Whale Dumps $500M In Ethereum As Massive Crypto Bet Turns Sour Bitcoin Holds Key Support As Downtrend Structure Remains Intact Bitcoin price action on the 3-day timeframe continues to reflect a structurally weak market following the sharp rejection from the late-2025 highs near $125,000. Since then, BTC has printed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a clear intermediate downtrend. The recent drop toward the $65,000–$70,000 zone highlights persistent selling pressure, particularly after repeated failures to reclaim higher moving averages. From a technical perspective, price is currently trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are beginning to slope downward. This alignment typically signals bearish momentum and suggests rallies may continue to face resistance. The 200-period average near the mid-$90,000 region now represents a major structural barrier rather than support. Related Reading: Liquidity Or Liability? History’s Hard Lessons For The XRP Momentum Play Volume dynamics reinforce this interpretation. Selling spikes accompanying recent declines appear stronger than buying activity during rebounds, indicating distribution rather than accumulation in the short term. However, the stabilization near the $65,000–$70,000 range suggests a potential consolidation phase rather than immediate continuation lower. Key support sits around the recent local low near $60,000. A sustained breakdown below that level could trigger another volatility expansion, while recovery above $80,000 would be required to neutralize the current bearish structure and shift sentiment toward stabilization. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin closed the year slightly in the red, marking a rare break in the long-observed four-year cycle pattern of one red year followed by three green years. The annual decline was modest—around 6%—and negligible compared to historical drawdowns seen in prior bearish years. Yet despite its limited magnitude, the red close carries symbolic weight, suggesting a shift in market behavior rather than outright weakness. Related Reading: Ethereum Liquidity Rebuilds On Binance: December Inflows Signal Strategic Repositioning Recent on-chain analysis from Axel Adler adds important context to this change. Data tracking cumulative Net Taker Flow shows that aggressive buying peaked around the New Year before fading. Since then, the balance of market aggression has tilted toward sellers, though not in an extreme way. The indicator currently sits in a moderate negative range, signaling that sell-side pressure has increased but remains far from capitulation levels. Historically, similar conditions have tended to coincide with heightened downside sensitivity rather than immediate trend reversals. In practical terms, this suggests that Bitcoin is vulnerable to further weakness if demand fails to recover, but it is not yet displaying the stress typically associated with deeper bear phases. The key takeaway is nuance. Bitcoin is not collapsing, but it is no longer behaving like an asset in a clean, momentum-driven expansion. The shift toward moderate sell pressure, combined with a rare red yearly close, points to a market transitioning into a more complex and selective phase rather than following its familiar cycle script. Derivatives Momentum Turns Cautious as Sell-Side Pressure Aligns Adler’s analysis highlights a growing shift in short-term market behavior through the Bitcoin Net Taker Flow momentum metric, which tracks how aggressively traders are positioning on the long or short side. Unlike cumulative flow, this indicator is designed to react quickly to sentiment changes, offering an early read on shifts in trader behavior rather than longer-term positioning. In recent sessions, this momentum gauge has rolled over decisively. After holding positive territory in late December, the smoothed reading has slipped into negative levels, now hovering around -0.3. While this does not yet reflect extreme stress, it places the market firmly in a moderate bearish pressure regime. The timing is notable: the momentum downturn occurred alongside a deterioration in cumulative Net Taker Flow, reinforcing the signal rather than contradicting it. This alignment matters. When both cumulative pressure and short-term momentum weaken together, it reduces the likelihood that the move is driven by noise or isolated positioning. Instead, it points to a broader shift in trader aggression toward the sell side. Adler notes that deeper downside risk would emerge if momentum continues to weaken, particularly if readings push beyond the -0.4 threshold. Conditions suggest controlled but persistent selling pressure. Bitcoin is not yet in capitulation territory, but the synchronized signals indicate that bearish forces currently have the upper hand, increasing sensitivity to any loss of price support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Distribution Re-Emerges: BTC Enters A Fragile Price Phase Bitcoin Holds Key Support As Momentum Remains Fragile Bitcoin is consolidating around the $88,000–$90,000 zone after a sharp pullback from its recent highs. Reflecting a market caught between stabilization and lingering downside risk. Price remains below the short-term and medium-term moving averages, signaling that bullish momentum has not yet been reclaimed. The 50-period moving average has turned into dynamic resistance, while the 100-period average is flattening, reinforcing the idea of a broader compression phase rather than an immediate trend reversal. Importantly, Bitcoin is still holding well above the 200-period moving average, which continues to slope upward. This suggests that, from a higher-timeframe perspective, the broader structure has not fully broken down. However, the loss of the $100,000–$105,000 region earlier marked a clear regime shift from expansion to distribution. Increasing sensitivity to sell-side pressure. Volume has notably declined during the recent sideways movement, indicating a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers. This supports the view that the market is digesting prior excesses rather than aggressively repricing lower. Still, repeated failures to push back above the $92,000–$95,000 range highlight weak demand at higher levels. As Bitcoin holds the $85,000–$88,000 support band, consolidation remains the dominant scenario. A breakdown below this area would likely open the door to deeper retracements. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is once again at the center of market attention, trading at critical price levels after a 9% surge since the start of August pushed it to just below its $123,000 all-time high. The rally has reignited the bull-vs-bear debate, with analysts split on where BTC heads next. Some believe the momentum will be enough to break through resistance and set fresh record highs, while others warn of a looming deeper correction if buying pressure falters. Related Reading: Ethereum Bullish Fundamentals Clash With Short-Term Leverage Risks Adding to the intrigue, key data from CryptoQuant shows that despite Bitcoin’s climb to this milestone, the Realized Profit and Loss (P&L) Ratio remains close to its historical average. This metric, which measures the magnitude of gains or losses realized by market participants, suggests the current uptrend is not yet in the overheated territory that often precedes sharp reversals. For bulls, this could indicate room for further upside without excessive risk of a rapid downturn. For bears, it’s a reminder that Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains intact but vulnerable to sudden shifts in sentiment. With volatility still defining the crypto landscape, the next moves around this level could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory for the rest of the year. Bitcoin Faces Pivotal Test As ATH Breakout or Rejection Looms According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s current market structure presents a much lower risk of a sharp trend reversal compared to previous peaks in the Realized Profit and Loss (P&L) Ratio. In past cycles, this metric often spiked to overheated levels before major pullbacks, signaling that market participants were taking excessive profits all at once. Today, however, the P&L Ratio remains closer to its average range, indicating a more balanced market environment despite Bitcoin trading just below its $123,000 all-time high. This suggests that while volatility remains a constant in the crypto space, the immediate probability of a dramatic downturn is lower than in past overheated phases. Still, Adler emphasizes that Bitcoin is entering a critical price range where market direction will be decided. Breaking above the all-time high is essential for the uptrend to continue, as such a move would likely trigger a new wave of momentum buying and potentially set the stage for fresh record highs. On the other hand, failing to clear this level—especially after multiple attempts—could result in a sharp correction or an extended period of sideways consolidation, testing investor patience. Other analysts highlight the contrast between Bitcoin’s strong long-term fundamentals and the current market indecision. On-chain data points to healthy accumulation trends, steady network activity, and relatively contained leverage in derivatives markets—all signs of underlying strength. Yet, uncertainty over macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and short-term profit-taking continues to weigh on sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest Flips Negative After July Peak – Risk Appetite Cools BTC Price Analysis: Testing Critical Resistance Bitcoin’s price action shows a decisive rally since early August, climbing nearly 9% and approaching the all-time high at $123,217.39. On the 8-hour chart, BTC faced strong rejection near this resistance, pulling back to the $118,500 area. The recent move marks the second approach toward this level in the past three months, highlighting its importance as a critical breakout point. The chart also reveals that BTC remains above its key moving averages — the 50 SMA ($116,605), 100 SMA ($117,340), and 200 SMA ($112,019) — reinforcing the underlying bullish structure. The 50 SMA has recently crossed above the 100 SMA, a short-term bullish signal suggesting continued upward momentum if buyers can sustain pressure. Related Reading: Altseason Still On Hold – Metrics Reveal BTC Outpaces Large, Mid, Small Caps However, the failure to break above the $123K level could lead to renewed selling pressure, with potential retracements toward the 100 SMA or even the 200 SMA if momentum fades. A confirmed breakout above $123K would likely trigger a new wave of buying, pushing BTC into price discovery and setting fresh record highs. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin finds itself at a pivotal moment following a rollercoaster start to the week. The price experienced a sharp crash, plunging to $89K before staging an impressive recovery to reach $97K. Now, BTC is attempting to stabilize and build momentum for another rally. Investors and traders alike are watching closely as Bitcoin hovers near critical […]
Bitcoin faced a sharp retrace yesterday, dropping 8% from its all-time high of $108,300 after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut alongside a revised policy signaling fewer cuts in 2025. Despite the drop, Bitcoin managed to hold above $98,000, a critical liquidity level that analysts are closely monitoring. Related Reading: On-Chain Metrics Reveal Cardano Whales Are ‘Buying The Dip’ – Details This recent price action raises a pivotal question: is this the start of a more significant correction or merely a shakeout to fuel the next leg of Bitcoin’s rally? CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler provided key insights, noting that no substantial panic selling is evident in the market—a signal that investor confidence remains intact for now. Bitcoin’s resilience at current levels suggests the market is recalibrating following the Fed’s latest moves. As traders and investors digest these developments, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin can recover momentum and push back toward its previous highs or if deeper retracements are on the horizon. With market sentiment hanging in the balance, the coming days will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next direction. Bitcoin Remains Strong Despite the recent dip and a noticeable shift in market sentiment, Bitcoin remains resilient above key liquidity levels, maintaining its long-term bullish structure. The price drop, sparked by broader market reactions to the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, has raised concerns, but Bitcoin’s ability to hold critical support underscores its underlying strength. Top CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler recently shared data on X, shedding light on the market’s current dynamics. According to Adler, no significant panic selling is evident, even after Bitcoin’s sharp decline. He highlighted a chart tracking the BTC short-term holder profit-loss to exchanges, revealing that this metric is currently at a higher level than seen during early December selling events. This indicates that the recent sell-off may have been less driven by fear and more of a strategic shakeout. This shakeout could serve to generate liquidity and provide the necessary momentum for Bitcoin’s ongoing rally. However, he also cautions that this could mark the beginning of a broader correction that might take time to fully develop. Related Reading: Solana Bull Flag Signals A Breakout To $300 – Analyst Shares Key Levels The coming weeks will be pivotal for Bitcoin. As the market stabilizes, traders and investors are watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim higher levels or if further downside consolidation is on the cards. Price Action: Technical Levels To Hold Bitcoin is currently trading at $101,800, following a successful test of local demand at $98,695 earlier today. The price structure remains intact, with Bitcoin forming a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, signaling sustained bullish momentum. Despite the recent volatility, the market sentiment continues to lean optimistic as BTC holds above critical support levels. For Bitcoin to maintain its upward trajectory, a decisive push above $103,600 is essential. This level served as a significant pivot last week, marking a key zone for both buyers and sellers. Breaking through this resistance would likely signal renewed momentum, setting the stage for further gains as Bitcoin eyes new highs. However, failure to break above $103,600 could lead to a shift in sentiment. If BTC also loses the $100,000 psychological level, it would likely confirm the start of a broader correction. Such a scenario could drive the price toward lower support zones as the market recalibrates. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Load Up: Bullish Sign Or Bear Trap? The next few days will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s near-term direction. Traders are closely watching the $103,600 resistance and $100,000 support levels, as these thresholds will dictate whether BTC continues its rally or enters a corrective phase. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has faced a few volatile days after its recent attempt to break above the highly anticipated $100,000 level. Despite the initial excitement, BTC retraced slightly and is now in a consolidation phase following its surge to a new all-time high of $99,800. While some investors hoped for a swift breakout into six-figure territory, the […]
Bitcoin recently saw a 9% retrace from its all-time high of $99,800, narrowly missing the psychological $100K milestone. The pullback brought BTC down to a low of $90,700 on Tuesday, sparking concern among some investors. However, the price has since recovered, showing resilience as it climbs back toward key resistance levels. Despite the volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term bullish structure remains intact, with market sentiment leaning optimistic. Related Reading: Cardano Whales Buy The Dip – Metrics Show Increasing Demand Top analyst Axel Adler has provided key on-chain insights that suggest that the strong demand for Bitcoin persists at current levels. According to Adler, this buying activity indicates that investors view pullbacks as opportunities to accumulate, underscoring confidence in Bitcoin’s potential for further growth. However, he also highlighted solid support at lower price levels, which could come into play if the current recovery fails to sustain. The next few days will be crucial as Bitcoin tests its ability to reclaim momentum and potentially break through the $100K barrier. With demand remaining robust and market conditions aligning for a potential breakout, all eyes are on whether BTC can sustain its upward trajectory or if further consolidation is on the horizon. The stage is set for a decisive move in Bitcoin’s price action. Bitcoin Data Reveals Investors’ Entry Prices Bitcoin continues to showcase extremely bullish price action, driven by increasing demand from institutional and retail investors. Key on-chain data from CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler highlights critical price dynamics shaping the current market. According to Adler, Bitcoin’s price is presently consolidating within the average purchase range of two key investor cohorts: the 1D ($96.8K) and the 1D-1W ($95.3K). These levels act as crucial support zones, reflecting strong buyer interest at current prices. Additionally, the average purchase level in the 1W-1M range, positioned at $84K, provides an extra layer of support in case of a broader market pullback. This indicates that even in a more bearish scenario, Bitcoin will likely find stability around $84K before resuming its upward trajectory. The data reinforces a widely held bullish outlook for Bitcoin among analysts and investors, many of whom believe the current cycle is still in its early stages. The strong demand and robust support levels suggest that Bitcoin is well-positioned to maintain its bullish momentum in the weeks ahead. Related Reading: XRP Consolidates Below Crucial Resistance – Analyst Sets $1.60 Target Whether BTC holds above its current levels or experiences a temporary dip, the consensus remains optimistic about further gains, with this cycle potentially marking a historic run for the cryptocurrency. BTC Nears $100K Bitcoin is currently trading at $95,200, a pivotal level that could determine its next major move. This price point serves as a crucial threshold, and if Bitcoin holds above it, the stage would be set for a potential test of the highly anticipated $100,000 level. Before reaching this psychological milestone, the next significant supply zone lies at $98,800. A break above this level would likely trigger a massive breakout, propelling BTC beyond its all-time high and into six-figure territory for the first time. However, the stakes remain high. Bitcoin could face a deeper correction if it fails to maintain its position above the $90,000 level. In such a scenario, the next strong support is at $85,500, a critical level that would need to hold to preserve Bitcoin’s bullish structure. Related Reading: Ethereum Analyst Predicts $3,700 Once ETH Breaks Through Resistance Market participants closely monitor these key levels, as Bitcoin’s trajectory will influence broader market sentiment. With strong demand and momentum, the coming days will be pivotal in determining whether BTC surges past $100,000 or consolidates further before resuming its bullish run. As the market remains highly dynamic, traders and investors are bracing for significant moves ahead. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture after weeks of intense volatility, marked by excitement and fear. Currently trading around $59,400, BTC is testing vital demand levels following a 10% dip from local highs of approximately $66,000. This recent price action has sparked uncertainty among investors, some of whom remain hopeful for new all-time highs […]
On-chain Bitcoin whales have had a slow return, despite Bitcoin surpassing its previous all-time high.