While Bitcoin (BTC) trades at its lowest levels in months, some market watchers have warned that the leading crypto may be preparing for another major drop as it retests a critical technical area that has historically marked a turning point. Related Reading: Zcash Fixes Critical Orchard Vulnerability As ZEC Holds $600 Support Bitcoin Tags Key 200‑Week SMA After Four Years After falling 15% over the past four days, Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $64,000 level as support. The flagship crypto had been trading between $64,000-$82,000 since the early February crash, holding above the upper half of the range for nearly two months. However, this week’s broader volatility pushed BTC toward the range’s lower boundary for the first time in months, reaching a four-month low of $61,383 on Wednesday night. Amid this performance, market observer Rekt Capital highlighted that the cryptocurrency had tagged the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time in this bear cycle, which may signal that another correction is coming. As he explained, deviation below this SMA has “historically been the key to building out a Bear Market bottom formation.” In June 2022, Bitcoin reached this level during its bear market correction, quickly losing it as support on the weekly timeframe. Following the initial drop below the 200-week SMA, the leading crypto traded sideways, briefly retesting this level before continuing its descent to its late 2022 bear market bottom. Now, BTC has reached this key SMA nearly four years later, suggesting a drop to new lows if the 2022 playbook repeats. The analyst noted that Bitcoin has been rejected from a critical area and has broken a key level, another similarity to past bear market corrections. According to the post, BTC was rejected from the base of the Macro Triangle after failing to break past the $82,500 area, revisited the 50-Month EMA during the recent drop, and is currently breaking down from this EMA, a setup that has repeated each cycle before the market bottom. BTC’s $60,000 Support About To Give In? Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin rallies from the $60,000 region have progressively weakened since 2024, signaling deteriorating support. While the price surged 113% from this area during the mid-2024 rally, the February 2026 retest only generated a 38% move. Now, the cryptocurrency has bounced 4% so far, “but it’s very likely that the rebound from here will be even weaker,” the analyst stated, adding that the “$60,000 area will be completely lost as support over time.” He also stated that during bear markets, Bitcoin tends to form multi-month price clusters, followed by new Macro Lower Highs before distributing from the clusters to reach new lows. “The good news is there are 1-2 such clusters left in this Bitcoin Bear Market, with the Bear Market Bottom being the final cluster,” he concluded. Related Reading: Ethereum Ready For The ‘Final Dip’? Analysts Call For New Lows As Price Retests $1,900 Meanwhile, Ali Martinez affirmed that the recent breakdown from the $72,000 support has left Bitcoin “in a vulnerable position,” as it opens the door for a 25%-30% correction based on the MVRV Pricing Bands. The analyst previously noted that Bitcoin has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands over the past decade. Now, the next major area of support is between $54,000 and $50,000, where the 1.0 pricing band is located. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) sits at a technical crossroads after losing a crucial support level, leading some market observers to suggest that this week’s price will be decisive for whether the flagship crypto can reclaim upside momentum or extend its recent losses. Related Reading: Trillion-Dollar Italian Bank Moves To XRP, But How Much Have They Bought? Bitcoin 21W EMA Retest To Be Decisive After closing the week at around $77,450, Bitcoin started the new week falling to a new local low of $76,050. The cryptocurrency had been trading between $76,300 and $82,500 throughout its May rally, failing to break out of the crucial resistance despite multiple attempts. In a Monday analysis, market observer Rekt Capital noted that Sunday’s drop saw BTC close below the key 21-Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around the $78,000 area, after successfully retesting this level as support for multiple consecutive weeks. The analyst explained that this performance “shows how lackluster the buy-side strength has been at the 21-Week EMA support, producing a limited rally even after multiple successful retests.” It also means the price is positioned for a bearish retest of this level, with any future short-term relief rally potentially turning the EMA into resistance. He highlighted that a rebound is likely as Bitcoin has now formed a new weekly CME Gap around that area. Therefore, the potential relief rally would turn the 21-Week EMA into new resistance and would also serve the newly formed CME Gap. “It would turn the old CME Gap area into new resistance; after all, the previous CME Gap served as a Range which has technically been lost given the Weekly Close below the old CME Gap bottom,” the market observer added. Rekt Capital emphasized that this week is critical for reversing the bearish sentiment, with Bitcoin needing to close above the EMA and at least within the CME Gaps to reclaim its bullish momentum. BTC Faces ‘Cascading Dumping’ Pattern Meanwhile, analyst Easy On Chain affirmed that the Bitcoin sell-off may not be over yet, as it is not facing a simple short-term correction, but a “structurally driven crisis fueled by cascading leverage liquidations and deep spot-market fear.” Based on CryptoQuant data, he highlighted a “clear cascading dumping” pattern in which capitulation from Bitcoin long-term holders triggers panic selling among short-term investors. The data shows that long-term holders who bought 6 to 12 months ago have an average realized entry of around $110,851, meaning many entered deep unrealized losses territory after the recent collapse. Since Thursday, on-chain flows reveal heavy exchange inflows from these holders, with the Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) ratio for 6–12 month coins surging to 10.54%, far from the normal 1% level. Historically, this has led to large-scale capitulation, increasing spot-market selling pressure that ultimately spreads to short-term investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Extends Decline, Downside Pressure Builds Aggressively In addition, ultra-short-term supplies, which account for roughly 80% of exchange inflows, are currently being dumped at a loss below the critical break-even point (1.0), indicating that most short-term inflows are not profit-taking, but loss-cutting driven by fear. “The current decline is therefore an internally driven market crisis caused by derivative liquidations, large-scale long-term holder capitulation, and cascading panic from short-term participants,” he concluded, affirming that “until this toxic supply is fully absorbed and sentiment stabilizes, a rapid V-shaped recovery remains unlikely,” and investors should avoid aggressive dip-buying. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to hold $80,000 as support, some market analysts have warned about a crucial resistance area that could make or break the flagship crypto’s bullish rally. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Extend Six-Week Streak With $858M Inflows On CLARITY Act Progress Bitcoin Bull Rally Meets Key Resistance In a Tuesday analysis, market watcher Ali Martinez highlighted a “crucial resistance barrier that has the potential to put an end to the recent Bitcoin bull rally” that has sent the price to its highest levels in months. He explained that BTC has been attempting to clear the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), near $82,500, for three consecutive days. A breakout above this level could trigger a rally toward the $94,000 area, Martinez affirmed, while a rejection could send the price to retest the 50-day SMA around $75,000. However, the failure to reclaim this level may suggest that the market “is struggling to find the follow-through volume needed for a breakout.” The analyst pointed out that a recent shift in miners’ behavior could reinforce the resistance area above. Over the past month, Bitcoin miners have been steadily taking profits, offloading over 3,400 BTC they’ve held since the $72,000 range to cover operational costs or lock in gains at the recent highs. “This added supply could strengthen the overhead resistance,” he affirmed. Meanwhile, retail and futures traders are “aggressively increasing their risk appetite,” with the Estimated Leverage Ratio currently at a yearly peak, indicating an overextended market reliant on borrowed funds. Most of this leverage is skewed toward long positions, creating liquidation walls at $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000, Martinez added, warning that if Bitcoin can’t flip the $82,500 resistance into support, “the market may look to flush this leverage by testing those lower levels.” BTC Poised For Another Correction? Analyst Rekt Capital offered a macro perspective, suggesting Bitcoin may fail to reclaim the crucial resistance and fall to new lows in the coming months. He highlighted BTC’s breakdown from its macro triangle base around $82,500, which has sent the price retest the 50-month EMA. Historically, when Bitcoin breaks down from its macro triangle, the price retests its 50-month EMA as support and briefly bounces before dropping toward its bear market bottom. “On this occasion, (…) we’ve rebounded already. But history suggests that this rebound is going to be limited, and we’ll be losing the 50-month EMA as support and then turning it into resistance to transition into a cluster beneath it,” the analyst affirmed. Rekt Capital also emphasized that the 50-month EMA roughly aligns with the 2021 all-time high (ATH), which was a major resistance-turned-support area around the early 2024 ATH rally and opened the door to the 2025 run toward its latest ATH. Related Reading: Something Shocking Just Happened To The XRP Price, Analysts Are Using It To Make A Bold Prediction As Bitcoin retests this area as support once again and faces strong resistance around the macro triangle base, the analyst asserted that this rebound may be weaker, adding that history suggests the 50-month EMA support will likely be lost and turned into resistance. “That’s pretty compelling evidence to support the weaker rally thesis as well, because if we do reject from the confluent region of resistance, which is the macro downtrend and the macro triangle base, then indeed this rally (…) will be a lot lesser than the magnitude of that rally that we saw in 2024,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
The latest Bitcoin (BTC) price drop has raised concerns about the cryptocurrency’s upcoming performance, with some analysts warning that BTC’s next key closes could signal the start of another major correction. Related Reading: Dogecoin Bottom Not In? Analyst Warns DOGE’s Macro Downtrend Won’t Be Over Soon Bitcoin Risks Another Major Crash On Friday, Bitcoin plunged over 7% intraday to a three-week low of $65,700, raising concerns about the flagship crypto’s short- to mid-term performance. The cryptocurrency has been trading between the $65,000-$72,000 levels since the early February crash. After its latest drop, analyst Altcoin Sherpa noted that holding the current levels is crucial, as losing this boundary could quickly send BTC’s price 6%-10% down to the next support area, around $60,000-$62,000. Several market observers also warned that the cryptocurrency is currently breaking down a crucial bearish formation, which could also trigger a massive crash to newer lows if the price doesn’t bounce soon. Notably, Bitcoin has been forming a bear flag pattern on the daily timeframe for nearly two months, retesting the formation’s lower boundary on multiple occasions. However, BTC now risks losing this level as support, as it shows multiple concerning signs. Ted Pillows asserted on X that Bitcoin is not only dropping in price but also losing momentum as it has lost its RSI uptrend. “A major sign of weakness,” he added. The analyst also emphasized that BTC’s breakdown “is only a matter of when, not if,” cautioning that the flagship cryptocurrency has already broken down of a similar two-month bear flag pattern at the start of the year. Meanwhile, Ali Martinez suggested that BTC could drop another 30%-45% based on its historical performance over the past decade. As he explained, Bitcoin has kicked off new bull runs after dropping below its long-term holder realized price, and it’s −0.2 standard deviation band, located at the $48,387 and $36,657 levels, respectively. “I’ll be watching these zones for dip-buying opportunities ahead of the next bull cycle,” he stated. All Eyes On BTC’s Weekly Close Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted another concerning sign for Bitcoin, noting that BTC has once again dropped below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Amid this drop, the cryptocurrency is treating this level as resistance once more, putting the focus on the upcoming weekly close. The analyst previously explained that “If the 200-week EMA is lost as support this week and price Weekly Closes below it again, Bitcoin could actually turn the EMA into new resistance.” Last week, the largest crypto by market capitalization technically closed below the 200W EMA after attempting to “post-breakout retest” it as support, but failing to end the week above the $68,000 area. “That means that price technically kickstarted a breakdown from the EMA,” and a weekly close below this level would confirm it. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Projects Circle To Hit $75B Valuation By 2030 Despite Selloff, Clarity Act Concerns “Given this latest Weekly Close, there is therefore scope for another dip into the 200-week EMA for another retest to see if BTC can solidify a reclaim into support,” he detailed, “But the overall suspicion has become confirmed: The 200-week EMA is acting as both an unreliable resistance and an unreliable support, never truly confirming a clear role.” The analyst concluded that the indecisiveness could lead to further retests of this area “before ultimately breaking down into additional Macro Downside over time.” As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $65,600, a 6% decline in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is retesting resistance levels as its price recovers the $71,000 mark. However, an analyst has warned that the bear market is expected to continue and that the latest bounce could be short-lived. Related Reading: Dogecoin Risks More Pain As Price Retests Critical Support – Analyst Warns Of 37% Breakdown Bitcoin Eyes Reclaim Of Former All-Time High Resistance On Tuesday, Bitcoin surged 7.5% from the Sunday lows toward the $71,000 area, retesting this key level for the second time in a week before momentarily retracing toward the $69,000 level. The cryptocurrency has been trading between the $63,000-$71,000 price range over the past month, briefly surging above the upper boundary during last week’s market bounce. However, BTC’s price has failed to hold its multiple breakout attempts amid the market volatility. In a Monday analysis, market watcher Rekt Capital observed that Bitcoin is interacting with two key levels that form “an important overhead resistance”: the 2021 and 2024 all-time highs (ATHs) at $69,000 and $71,300, respectively. As the analyst explained, these levels turned into resistance in the monthly timeframe after the flagship cryptocurrency closed February at $66,970. Since then, BTC has repeatedly tested these key levels from below in the daily timeframe but has failed to reclaim them. Instead, it has produced upside wicks above $69,000 and $71,300, signaling that the former ATHs are acting as rejection levels in shorter timeframes and could become key resistance if it monthly closes below them. “For Bitcoin to begin shifting this structure, price would need to Monthly Close above $69,000 by the end of March to position itself for a reclaim of the 2021 All Time High as support,” the analyst asserted. “Similarly, the 2024 All Time High at $71,300 would likely require multiple Monthly Closes above the level in order to properly establish a reclaim process,” he added. BTC Bounce To Be Short-Lived? While the former ATHs risk turning into resistance, Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin is currently finding crucial support at the 50-month Moving Average (MA), around the $64,000-$65,000 area. Historically, the flagship crypto has initially reacted from this level in bear markets, but eventually loses it as support. The recent bounce from the 50-month MA is enabling BTC to test the 2021 and 2024 ATHs as resistance “for the time being.” However, once the breakdown occurs, the level usually becomes a new resistance before further downside continuation follows. Now, “Bitcoin is effectively sandwiched between two key reactive zones,” he affirmed, which could lead to short-term relief before the mid-term downside continues. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Traders Rise in Arms as Bitcoin Hits 7-Day Low And Oil Soars The analyst also observed that BTC appears to be only halfway through the bear market, leaving the door open for further downside. In an X post, he noted that BTC’s shortest bear market lasted around 365 days, while it is currently just over 150 days into the current one. Other analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency could follow the 2022 cycle playbook. At the time, the price significantly retraced from the cycle peak, consolidated for months, and then had a final bull trap before its second major correction wave toward the market bottom. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $71,307, a 3% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As the crypto markets rebounded on Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) bounced back from the recent selloff triggered by the escalating Middle East conflict, targeting a surge toward high levels. While some market observers see this as a sign of strength and potential bottoming, others warn that the rally could be short-lived. Related Reading: Bitcoin Leads Crypto Funds’ $1 Billion Rebound To End 5-Week Negative Streak Bitcoin Shows Strength Despite Growing Geopolitical Fears On Wednesday, Bitcoin surged 8.3% to trade above the $72,000 barrier for the first time in a month. The cryptocurrency has been trading between the $63,000-$73,000 price range since early February, but it has failed to break past the $70,000 mark throughout this period. Notably, the escalation of the US-Israel war with Iran has introduced significant volatility to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. This resulted in sharp declines on Saturday, with BTC dropping to $63,000. However, the flagship crypto’s price quickly stabilized around the mid-zone of its local range, followed by a partial recovery above the $68,000 area at the start of the week. Now, Bitcoin has surged 15.87% from its recent lows, reaching a one-month high of $73,479 on Wednesday morning despite increasing geopolitical tensions. In a recent Bits + Bips podcast episode, Chris Perkins, Managing Partner and President of CoinFund, highlighted that BTC’s signs of strength and resilience, alongside signs of liquidity entering the market, are a “good setup” for a potential bottoming. It’s worth noting that US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have seen a remarkable performance over the past two days, with $683.34 million in inflows since Monday, suggesting increasing demand for the investment products. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, told Bloomberg, “This is a victory for cryptocurrencies, given the impressive selloff those financial markets and gold experienced the day before,” adding that “perhaps some traders are looking at crypto as a safe haven.” Too Early To Call BTC’s Bottom Despite the rebound, Kuptsikevich also warned that the situation remains “too fragile” to declare the market bottom. He explained that “Bitcoin is vulnerable due to the increased volatility of stock indexes, which is forcing institutional investors to reduce their leverage.” Meanwhile, market observer Ted Pillows suggested that BTC’s rally could be short-lived, drawing a comparison between the flagship crypto’s current performance and its early 2022 price action when the Russia-Ukraine war started. As the analyst noted, Bitcoin, which had already begun correcting from its 2021 all-time high, saw initial volatility when the conflict erupted, but pumped almost 40% in the following month before dumping another 67%. BTC targets a potential 45% correction toward the $40,000 area. Source: Ted Pillows on X This time, BTC is beginning to display a similar performance, which could lead to a 20%-25% rally toward the $78,000-$80,000 zone, according to the market watcher. However, this rebound could be followed by a strong rejection at this key horizontal area. Related Reading: Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Buy $14 Billion In BTC As Retail Headed For The Exit If history repeats, the next phase of the cryptocurrency’s downtrend could begin soon, Ted Pillows cautioned, potentially sending the price 45% below the rally’s potential peak prices. Analyst Ali Martinez observed that Bitcoin has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands over the past decade. According to the chart, this would place BTC’s potential bottom between the $43,647-$54,559 levels. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $73,255, a 10% increase in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
After closing the week below a crucial support level, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $65,000 support for the first time since the early February crash, reaching a two-week low of $64,152. Amid this performance, some analysts have warned that the flagship crypto could be on the “cusp of bearish acceleration,” warning that another major crash could be around the corner. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mirrors Software Stocks More Than Any Other Market — Here’s Why Bitcoin Loses The 200-Week EMA On Monday, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin produced a “historically pivotal” development after closing last week below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently sits “at the center of a major confluence zone.” Notably, the 200-week EMA aligns with BTC’s Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range highs, located between $66,000-$71,000. Meanwhile, the Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range lows, around the $58,000-$60,000 levels, define the broader structure of BTC’s current range. Over the past three weeks, the cryptocurrency attempted to develop a demand region around this area, which was previously a major supply area. However, this level hasn’t historically been a structurally reliable support for BTC’s price, the analyst asserted, noting that it has previously acted as a 10-month resistance. “In the current structure, we have seen three consecutive weeks of elevated sell-side volume in this region, with limited meaningful buy-side response,” he explained. Per the post, this imbalance has led to a weekly close below the 200-week EMA, losing it as support in this timeframe. This suggests that a “continuation of Bearish Acceleration into its second wave” could follow soon. The analyst cautioned that now that price has closed the week below this critical level, there is a “strong probability that Bitcoin presses back toward the underside of that EMA to attempt turning it into new resistance.” If the underside retest holds, the structure would shift from defending the support to confirming the resistance at this level. He warned that if that level begins to act as resistance, downside continuation will become increasingly probable. BTC’s Bottom Targets $30,000 Rekt Capital also noted that BTC’s recent performance aligns closely with its price action in prior cycles. As he detailed, in 2018 and 2022, a weekly close below the 200-week EMA acted as a structural trigger to the second wave of bearish acceleration. “Bitcoin would attempt to reclaim the level, turn it into resistance, and then dissipate lower. That pattern is now attempting to replicate itself,” he asserted. Similarly, Ali Martinez pointed to the cryptocurrency’s historical performance, but on the three-day chart, affirming that this has been one of BTC’s key timeframes from a macro perspective. According to Martinez’s post, market observers must watch the upcoming interaction of the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), as the crossover between these two indicators on the three-day timeframe has historically preceded the final leg down of the bear market. Bitcoin dropped around 50%-72% from its 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops before its death crosses took place in late 2014 and 2018, and mid 2022. Following the 50-day and 200-day SMAs crossovers, the flagship crypto experienced another 45%-52% decline. Related Reading: Investors In Trump Family Memecoins Record $4.3 Billion In Losses As Tokens Sink Now, BTC has fallen more than 52% from its October 2025 peak and is approaching a potential death cross on the three-day chart by the end of February. “If history repeats — even partially — this could signal the beginning of the final leg down of this cycle,” the analyst warned. Based on this, Martinez predicted that another 30%-50% correction from current levels could follow, placing the cryptocurrency’s target near the $30,000-$40,000 supports. “If the cross confirms, it becomes a level to take very seriously,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As the crypto market recovers from last week’s correction, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim a crucial price zone. Despite the bounce, some analysts have warned that the bottom may not be in yet, suggesting the flagship crypto could soon retest its recent lows. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? Bitcoin Bottom Below $60,000, Says Analyst On Monday, Bitcoin continued its sideways move, trying to turn a key area into support for the third consecutive day. After hitting a two-year low of $60,000 last week, the flagship crypto has bounced 17.5% to trade between $68,000 and $72,000 over the past few days. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency has failed to reclaim the upper zone of its short-term price range, raising questions about the direction of BTC’s next move. As the price recovered, Crypto Bullet noted that the BTC printed a “strong weekly close” above the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), leaving Thursday’s correction as a long wick. The analyst cautioned that these wicks have usually been filled the following week, pointing to the late February 2025 and early October 2025 corrections and the subsequent performance. Based on this, he suggested that Bitcoin could retest the $60,000 area again, where the 200-week Moving Average (MA) is also located. Similarly, Ted Pillows highlighted BTC’s Monday bounce above $70,000, asserting that the key level to defend is the $68,000 support, where the EMA200 sits. If the price fails to hold this level, the market observer suggested a deeper correction could be expected, with Bitcoin risking a drop below the recent lows if that level also fails to hold. Meanwhile, Ali Martinez hinted that BTC’s bottom might not be in, as “Bitcoin has historically bottomed around the −1.0 MVRV Pricing Band.” According to the chart shared on X, that level currently sits at $52,040. BTC To See Leeser Relief Rally? Another market watcher highlighted BTC’s macro descending triangle pattern, which it has been forming in the monthly timeframe since mid-2024, suggesting that its potential bounce could be a “lesser relief rally compared to the 2024-2025 advance to the upside.” Rekt Capital noted that upon breakdown from its macro triangles, Bitcoin tends to react from the 50-Month EMA. However, it has historically been followed by a downside deviation below this level. “When viewed through the lens of the Macro Descending Triangle, history shows that Bitcoin has consistently failed to revisit the base of the Macro Triangle following breakdowns, which means BTC may fall short of $82.5k on any upcoming relief rally.” To the analyst, if BTC can build support above the $71,000 area, where the post-halving accumulation breakout occurred, the price could attempt a move into the mid-$70,000. Related Reading: XRP Ledger Clears The Threshold For Institutional Settlement – Here’s How However, the flagship crypto “is still negotiating whether it will locate itself within the Post-Halving Range,” and has not decisively reclaimed the upper zone of its current range as support, “is instead showing early signs of flipping into resistance on the Weekly timeframe.” As a result, Bitcoin could consolidate around its post-halving range again if the $70,000 mark confirms as resistance. “At roughly 30% of the way through this part of the market cycle, there remains ample time for further structural movement to unfold but history suggests whatever clustering develops will likely be distributive before continuing additional Bearish Acceleration,” Rekt Capital concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 level over the weekend as selling pressure intensified across global markets. Reinforcing a climate of uncertainty that has weighed heavily on risk assets in recent weeks. The move came amid broad weakness in equities, elevated volatility, and declining liquidity conditions, pushing many investors into a defensive posture. While the price action alone may resemble prior corrective phases, on-chain data suggest that the underlying market structure is beginning to change. A recent analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is starting to exhibit characteristics historically associated with the early stages of bear markets. One of the clearest signals comes from the Supply in Loss (%) metric, which has climbed sharply to around 44% and continues to trend higher. This means a growing share of circulating BTC is now held at an unrealized loss. Reflecting increasing stress across market participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? Importantly, Bitcoin is still trading above its Realized Price, suggesting the market has not yet reached full capitulation. However, the combination of rising losses and weakening price structure raises the risk that the current phase represents the transition into a broader bear market, rather than a temporary correction within an ongoing uptrend. Supply in Loss Signals Structural Shift Toward a Bear Market The report explains that Bitcoin’s current on-chain structure closely mirrors conditions observed at the onset of previous bear markets. Historically, several signals have tended to appear together at the start of prolonged downside phases rather than at the end of routine corrections. These include Supply in Loss expanding above roughly 40%, a simultaneous decline in Supply in Profit, and price remaining elevated relative to realized value. When these conditions align, they have typically marked the beginning of structural weakening, not a reset before another leg higher. The present setup fits this historical pattern. Supply in Loss has moved decisively above the 40% threshold, while profitable supply is gradually contracting. This shift is occurring without widespread panic or capitulation. Indicating that losses are spreading across the supply in a controlled but persistent manner. This dynamic suggests a slow deterioration in market health, as more participants hold BTC at a loss while price struggles to recover meaningfully. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades At A Historical Accumulation Level: Can Bulls Hold $2,600 In past cycles, durable market bottoms only formed after Supply in Loss expanded further, usually alongside deeper price compression and a clearer capitulation phase. At current levels, those conditions have not yet been fully met. As a result, the data implies that the market is still in a transitional phase. This no longer resembles a mid-cycle dip. On-chain signals point to Bitcoin entering a bear market structure, with downside risk remaining unresolved until stronger signs of capitulation or structural stabilization emerge. Bitcoin Higher Timeframe Confirms Bearish Market Structure Bitcoin’s price structure has deteriorated sharply on the higher time frame, as shown by the 3-day chart. After months of consolidation below the prior all-time highs, BTC has now broken decisively below the $80K psychological level, with the latest close around $77,500. This move confirms a loss of medium-term support and marks a clear transition from distribution into downside continuation. From a trend perspective, price has slipped below the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, both of which are now rolling over. The 200-period moving average, still rising but flattening near the mid-$80K area, failed to act as durable support and now represents a major overhead resistance zone. Historically, sustained trading below these averages signals weakening trend strength and reduced probability of immediate trend recovery. Related Reading: XRP Risk-Adjusted Returns Signal Consolidation Rather Than Trend Formation – Details The recent sell-off also stands out for its impulsive character. Large bearish candles with limited lower wicks suggest aggressive selling pressure rather than orderly consolidation. Volume expanded on the breakdown, reinforcing the validity of the move and indicating forced exits rather than passive rebalancing. Structurally, the market is now forming lower highs and lower lows on this timeframe. Unless BTC can quickly reclaim the $80K–$85K region, downside risk remains dominant. In this context, the chart supports a bearish continuation. At best, a prolonged basing phase precedes any meaningful recovery attempt. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
After bouncing 2.6% from recent lows, Bitcoin (BTC) has been attempting to turn the $82,000-$83,000 area into support. Some analysts have warned that the cryptocurrency must hold the crucial macro support levels or it will “confirm bearish acceleration.” Related Reading: Ethereum Drops Below $2,800 As Crypto Liquidations Near $1B – Should Investors Worry? Bitcoin To Drop 76% From its Peak On Thursday, Bitcoin crashed alongside the rest of the market, retracing nearly 9% in a day toward the $81,314 area. BTC had been trading between $86,000-$93,500 since early November, closing above the lower boundary of its two-month range in the weekly timeframe despite constant volatility. At the moment, the flagship cryptocurrency has lost this key support in the daily timeframe and risks a deeper correction if the price doesn’t recover the $86,000 level before the end of the week. As the price hovers between levels not seen since the late November correction, a market observer has warned that the leading cryptocurrency has lost its 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as support. Ted Pillows asserted that the last two times Bitcoin had a weekly close below the 100-week EMA, back in 2018 and 2022, it dropped 50% in just 4-6 weeks. Moreover, he highlighted BTC’s historical pattern, noting that the cryptocurrency has repeated a similar performance between the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 cycles. The chart shows an eight-year ascending trendline that has marked the top of the previous cycles. The trendline began during the late 2017 peak and continued into the next bull market, marking the 2021 cycle top too. Notably, the 2018 bear market correction saw Bitcoin retrace 83.11% from the ascending trendline, while the 2022 pullback had BTC dropping 77.57% from the cycle top. Per the chart, this has formed a rising support line that has marked where BTC’s price bottomed during previous bear markets. Now, Bitcoin has seemingly topped around the trendline once again and could retrace up to 76.88% toward the $30,000 mark in 2026, if history repeats. BTC Retests Macro Triangle Bottom Analyst Rekt Capital also shared his perspective on BTC’s recent pullback now that it has broken down from its weekly price range and is revisiting the $82,500 bottom of its Macro Triangle formation. The analyst explained that Bitcoin has been forming a triangle pattern in the monthly timeframe since mid-2024, similar to its 2021 triangle formation that preceded the previous bear market. Per the analysis, the flagship crypto has shown a nearly identical price action to its 2021-2022 performance, with the price respecting the macro support and descending resistance. A breakdown from the macro triangle bottom “would confirm Bearish Acceleration,” he noted, adding that for bull market continuation, the cryptocurrency would need to break and hold above the macro descending resistance on longer timeframes. “Until then, we have more evidence that maybe we will be following 2021 [performance]. (…) It’s just a little bit more compressed.” He also pointed out that BTC is displaying a similar Bull Market EMAs crossover that occurred during the early stages of the previous bear market. Related Reading: Analysts Say Dogecoin Consolidation Is About To End – Parabolic Run Or Crash Ahead? Rekt Capital highlighted that the imminent crossover does not necessarily predict additional downside, but “is effectively confirming weakness, kind of responding to the weakness that we are already seeing and have seen for a while.” “History is suggesting to us that if we continue to make these macro lower highs, which are a result of weakening demand at historical support regions, then there’s more reason to be bearish rather than bullish,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is struggling to regain traction below the $88,000 level as fear and uncertainty continue to dominate market sentiment. After a volatile selloff, the price has stabilized, but confidence remains fragile, with traders closely watching whether current support can hold or if another leg lower is still ahead. The lack of a decisive rebound reflects a market caught between defensive positioning and cautious accumulation, where conviction on both sides remains limited. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Below $87K As Political Risk Spikes – Liquidations Reveal The Real Driver Analyst Axel Adler highlighted a critical divergence developing beneath the surface. According to his analysis, the Market Pressure Index dropped to 30.54, marking a new 30-day low and falling below the previous extremes recorded on January 21 and January 25. Despite this surge in derivatives-related pressure, Bitcoin’s price barely reacted, holding steady around $88.3K. That disconnect between pressure and price is unusual and signals a moment of heightened tension. Price structure reinforces how sensitive this zone has become. Bitcoin is currently trading in the lower 17% of the Donchian channel, positioning BTC just above the $86.4K support level. This area now represents a clear decision point for the market. If buyers continue absorbing supply, a base may begin to form. If support fails, the absence of downside reaction so far could quickly give way to renewed volatility. Extreme Derivatives Pressure Meets Price Stability According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s Derivatives Market Pressure Index has reached an unusually critical state. The indicator collapsed to 30.54, marking a new 30-day low and exceeding the previous downside extremes recorded on January 21 (36.95) and January 25 (35.63). The Market Pressure Index is a normalized composite that blends price action, cumulative 6-hour net taker flow, Open Interest, and volume delta, calibrated over a 365-day window to improve signal robustness and reduce noise. The most striking detail is the speed of the move. On January 27 at 07:00 UTC, the index dropped 12 points within a single hour, yet Bitcoin’s price barely reacted, moving only from $88.2K to $88.3K. This creates a rare and critical divergence: derivatives pressure reached an extreme, but price refused to break lower. Adler stresses that this behavior leaves the market at a binary crossroads. Either buyers are actively absorbing supply at current levels—suggesting early base formation—or the market is storing downside energy that could be released sharply if support fails. Together, the charts describe a tense equilibrium. Price Structure shows BTC sitting near support, in the lower 17% of the Donchian channel, with a Structure Shift of -0.57, confirming a broken bullish structure. Meanwhile, sellers are applying maximum monthly pressure and meeting resistance. This is either strong demand asserting itself or the final pause before capitulation. Related Reading: US Institutions Step Back From Ethereum: Coinbase Premium Flashes Caution Bitcoin Downtrend Pressure Persists Below Key Averages Bitcoin is trading around $87,800 on the daily chart, continuing to struggle after repeated failures to reclaim higher resistance zones. The broader structure shows a clear transition from the late-2025 uptrend into a corrective phase, with price posting lower highs and weaker rebounds since the sharp selloff in November. While BTC has managed to stabilize above the mid-$80K region, upside momentum remains limited and fragile. From a technical perspective, the moving averages define the current battlefield. Bitcoin is trading below the 50-day moving average (blue), which is now sloping downward and acting as immediate resistance near the low-$90K area. The 100-day moving average (green) sits higher and continues to trend lower, reinforcing a bearish medium-term bias and capping recovery attempts. Above both, the 200-day moving average (red) remains well overhead near the $105K–$108K range, highlighting how far the price has drifted from a fully bullish structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Indicator Falls Back To Post-Bear Market Levels: Investors Approach A Key Decision Point Recent bounce attempts toward $92K–$96K were decisively rejected, confirming that sellers remain active on rallies. Volume has eased compared to the November capitulation, suggesting reduced urgency rather than strong demand. For bulls, holding the $86K–$88K zone is critical to prevent a deeper breakdown. A daily close back above $90K would be the first step toward stabilizing the trend. Failure to defend current levels keeps downside risk open toward the low-$80K range. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
As the market erases its 2026 gains, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to its lowest level in weeks and is attempting to reclaim a crucial level. Some market observers have warned that a retest of the November lows is likely if volatility continues. Related Reading: BitMine’s Ethereum Holdings Near 3.5% Supply Milestone As ETH Falls Below $3,000 Bitcoin Breaks Down From Key Support On Wednesday, Bitcoin continued to pullback and hit a three-week low of $87,263. The cryptocurrency had been trading between the $90,000-$96,000 range since its start-of-the-year breakout, reaching a two-month high of $97,924 a week ago. However, the crypto market has experienced significant volatility over the past few days, fueled by renewed geopolitical tensions. As a result, BTC has retraced 10% in the past week, falling to the mid-zone of its $84,000-$94,000 range. Amid this performance, trader Wealthmanager noted that the flagship crypto had retraced all its 2026 gains, briefly falling below its yearly opening and POC. He added that this is a critical level to hold in the coming days, as losing this area could send the price back to the $80,000 mark. Analyst Crypto Jelle highlighted a two-month bear flag structure on BTC’s daily chart, suggesting a high chance of a breakdown. “Lose the current lows again, and bears will be fully back in the driver’s seat,” he asserted. Similarly, Market observer Lyvo Crypto pointed out the same formation, detailing that Bitcoin broke down from the pattern’s ascending support after the recent price action and lost its two-month uptrend. To the trader, this signals that “momentum is fully in the bears’ control” and “if it [bearish momentum] sustains, we could see a free fall” that could likely result in a retest of the $78,000 area. In the case of a breakdown to the November lows, he advised that “from there, we’ll wait for confirmation of a double bottom and look for a relief rally.” BTC To Repeat Its 2020 Price Action? Crypto Bullet drew a parallel between BTC’s current price action and its performance in early 2022. The analyst affirmed that the current price action closely mirrors its 2022 fractal, which could signal that a major correction is ahead. At the time, Bitcoin retraced over 40% from its late 2021 cycle top, followed by a “dead cat bounce” at the start of 2022 and a second major correction toward new lows. Now, the flagship crypto displays a similar performance as it has retraced 30% from the October highs and is currently attempting to reclaim the lost ground. However, Crypto Bullet noted that there are two significant differences from its 2022 correction. Related Reading: Solana At Risk Of Breakdown After Key Rejection – Is $100 Next? First, Bitcoin has yet to retest the 50-week and 200-week Moving Averages (MAs). Second, the timing hints that the final breakdown is not due until later in Q1. “If we match the 2022 fractal’s top and the October 2025 top, we’ll see there’s still about 1 month of PA to make that final leg up and test the 50-Week MA or the 200-Day MA,” he explained. He concluded that one more pump above the $100,000 is likely, but advised caution as the key supports are being tested. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $89,890, a 1.2% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
After failing to turn the $90,000 area, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to move within its local range with apparent no clear direction. Some market observers have suggested that the flagship crypto will remain rangebound until next year, when its potential moment of truth will come. Related Reading: More Pain For Ethereum? Head And Shoulder Pattern Signals $2,400 Breakdown Bitcoin Takes Holiday Break On Christmas Eve Day, Bitcoin continued with its sideways trajectory, trading between the $86,000-$87,000 levels throughout the day. The cryptocurrency has been hovering within the $80,000-$94,000 levels since the late November correction, failing to break out of its one-month range despite earlier attempts. Notably, BTC’s price has been trading around the mid-zone of its range, moving between the $84,000-$90,000 levels for nearly two weeks. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin “is still in no trading zone,” arguing that if the price doesn’t reclaim the $90,000 resistance area, the price could risk another retest of the $84,000 support. However, if the support and resistance levels don’t break, it will continue to move within its range until the market’s momentum returns. Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that December has been “a very boring month all things considered.” In an X post, he explained that there the broader crypto market had “no major narratives, no major moves. Just a lot of up days followed by down days. With alts bleeding lower in the end and BTC & ETH roughly stable.” The trader also asserted that it hasn’t been BTC’s best year despite reaching new highs this quarter. He pointed out that “this year was abysmal, especially looking at the risk adjusted returns.” Nonetheless, he noted that “during years like these, we are taking big steps towards distributing coins from OG large holders and get a more evenly spread supply. Regardless of price action in the short term, that’s always a good thing to see.” BTC To Breakout Or Breakdown In 2026? Daan affirmed that Q1 2026 will be the moment where Bitcoin can “try and prove itself” and when everyone will be closely watching the cryptocurrency’s performance to determine whether the cycle is over or not. Other market watchers have suggested two potential scenarios for BTC’s early 2026 performance. Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC appears to be mirroring its 2021-2022 fractal, which suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency is ultimately entering a bear market. Per the chart, Bitcoin saw a significant pullback after topping in late 2021. This was followed by brief recovery period at the start of 2022 before the price continued its descending trajectory. Based on this, the analyst forecasted a rally towards $100,000 at the start of 2026 before its next leg down, which could target the $60,000-$70,000 area. On the contrary, Eljaboom pointed out that BTC could be repeating its performance from the start of the year. Related Reading: XRP ETFs Record 25-Day Streak As Price Eyes Key Resistance Level As he noted, BTC displays a multi-month falling wedge pattern on the three-day chart similar to the one that formed between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 and led to the Q3 3035 rally. If history repeats, the cryptocurrency could retest the pattern’s lower boundary in the coming weeks before breaking out of the formation and potentially moving to new highs by Q2 2026. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $87,350, a 0.5% decline in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
As the market volatility continues, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to hold its short-lived momentum and reclaim a key resistance level for the second time this week. Some market watchers have affirmed that the flagship crypto may continue to have a disappointing end-of-year rally and potentially reach new lows before the pain is over. Related Reading: Did Crypto Investors Stop Believing In The Four-Year Cycle? Analyst Weighs In New Lows Before A 2026 Recovery? On Thursday, Bitcoin attempted to break past a crucial level after surging 2.9% from its daily opening. The cryptocurrency has been unable to reclaim $89,000-$90,000 area since the start-of-week correction, which sent the price to a two-week low of $85,145. Notably, the flagship crypto retested the crucial resistance area twice in the past 24 hours but has been rejected, falling back to the local lows. Market observer Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC has been holding above the $85,000 support zone despite the volatility, which could lead to another retest of the key $90,000-$92,000 zone if it holds. However, if price break below local support zone, Bitcoin would likely see a retest of the November lows, around the $80,000 mark. Ted also pointed out that the cryptocurrency may be mirroring its Q1 2025 price action, which suggests that a price drop below the recent lows could happen. Per the chart, BTC briefly bounced in March from its early 2025 correction before recording a lower low in the next few weeks. This was then followed by the Q2 and Q3 recovery rallies that propelled the price to its latest all-time high (ATH) of $126,000. Now, Bitcoin displays a similar performance, currently recovering from the initial corrective phase. If history repeats, the flagship crypto could see a 10%-15% drop to the $74,000-$76,000 area in the coming weeks before kicking off a rally toward new highs in 2026, the analyst suggested. Bitcoin To Continue With ‘No Direction’ Similarly, Ali Martinez affirmed that the cryptocurrency is at an inflection point and risks dropping up to 20% if the $87,000 support doesn’t hold. He explained that BTC is breaking out of a bear flag, which could target the $70,000 level if selling pressure spikes. Meanwhile, another analyst considers that “sentiment [is] flipping based on every last daily candle colour.” Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin has been trading within the $84,000-$93,500 for the past four weeks, “moving up and down in a choppy fashion, while trading in between these two larger levels.” To the trader, the next few weeks will continue to be “generally very choppy and lack direction” due to lower liquidity and trading volume during the holiday season. “I don’t think you’d be missing much if you log off and come back somewhere early January,” he added. Related Reading: XRP Price Must Defend This Level To Avoid 50% Breakdown, Analyst Warns On the contrary, analyst Crypto Jelle affirmed that despite the low-timeframe struggles, Bitcoin “still flat out refuses to drop lower, no matter how hard bears try.” He noted that price still sits “on a clear weekly support level” that has held since April, explaining that as long as this area holds, price can still reclaim the monthly opening, around the $90,300 area. As of this writing, BTC trades at $86,138 a 5.3% decline in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin continues to trade below $90,000, struggling to recover after several days of heavy selling and aggressive long liquidations. Sellers keep pushing price lower, and bulls fail to reclaim momentum, creating a market environment filled with uncertainty and fear. Every attempt to bounce meets immediate resistance, showing how much control bears currently hold. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Largest Hidden-Buying Spike of the Cycle Despite Losing $90K Level Data shared by Axel Adler shows a clear shift in derivatives pressure toward buyers. The liquidation dominance oscillator now sits at 32%, one of its highest readings in recent years. This level signals that leveraged bulls keep taking the majority of the damage, with long positions consistently wiped out as volatility rises. Instead of absorbing the drawdown, many traders continue to unwind or get forced out of their positions. These repeated long liquidations fuel deeper downside moves and block any meaningful recovery attempts. The market now watches closely to see whether this wave of forced selling will continue dragging Bitcoin lower or if the pressure is finally reaching exhaustion. Long Liquidations Dominate as Bitcoin Faces Renewed Downside Pressure Adler explains that the liquidation dominance oscillator measures the ratio between long and short liquidations across the derivatives market. When the indicator prints positive values, shown as green bars, long positions take the bulk of the damage. Negative values reflect a dominance of short liquidations. Bitcoin’s current reading of 32% stands out as one of the highest levels seen in the last three years, highlighting how aggressively bulls have been forced out during this correction. November illustrates this perfectly. The market saw three separate waves of long liquidations, each exceeding $400 million. Every one of those spikes aligned with a sharp acceleration in Bitcoin’s price decline, reinforcing how leveraged buyers repeatedly amplified downside momentum. Rather than stabilizing the market, each flush created more selling pressure and triggered deeper unwinding across futures platforms. The most recent liquidation wave reached $221 million, hitting the market right as Bitcoin attempted a short-term recovery. That flush immediately reversed the bounce and dragged BTC back down to the $86,000 region, erasing nearly all of last week’s gains. The persistent dominance of long liquidations shows that bulls remain under heavy stress—and until this dynamic eases, Bitcoin will struggle to build sustainable upside. Related Reading: Massive Ethereum Distribution Continues: Whale Sends Another 5,000 ETH To Binance Bitcoin Market Searches for a Higher Time-Frame Floor Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the market pressing into a critical support zone after weeks of heavy selling. The price has dropped from the $115,000 region to the $86,000–$88,000 range, where it now interacts directly with the 100 SMA. This moving average has served as a key structural support in previous cycles, and Bitcoin’s current test of it will likely determine whether the broader uptrend holds or breaks down further. The recent candles highlight intense volatility. Bitcoin briefly dipped to nearly $84,000 before buyers stepped in, forming a lower wick that shows early attempts to defend this level. However, the rebound remains shallow, and the 50 SMA continues to slope downward — a sign that short- and mid-term momentum still favors sellers. For bulls to regain control, BTC needs to reclaim $95,000 on a weekly closing basis. Related Reading: Bitcoin Must Break Key Supply Clusters To Regain ATH Momentum – Watch These Levels Volume adds weight to the bearish pressure. Selling spikes dominate recent weeks, revealing a mix of forced liquidations and fear-driven exits rather than healthy profit-taking. As long as BTC trades below the 50 SMA, the market remains vulnerable to deeper retracements. If the 100 SMA fails to hold, the next major liquidity zone sits near $70,000–$72,000, aligning with previous consolidation and the long-term 200 SMA. The next weekly close will be decisive. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
While the crypto market bounces from last week’s correction, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim a crucial area as support to continue its recovery rally. As the flagship crypto faces some resistance, some market watchers have suggested that this week’s close may be key for its end-of-year performance. Related Reading: Solana Reclaims Crucial Resistance Despite First SOL ETF Outflows – 25% Rally Ahead? Bitcoin Faces Rejection Ahead Of November Close Bitcoin has retested a crucial resistance level for the first time in a week, hitting a one-week high of $93,092 on Friday morning before retracing. The flagship crypto has failed to hold crucial support levels throughout the November corrections, trading below $100,000 for nearly two weeks. A week ago, BTC plunged below $90,000 during the latest market correction, reaching a seven-month low of $80,600. However, the cryptocurrency led this week’s broader recovery, reclaiming key levels over the past few days. Amid its recent performance, some market observers have noted that Bitcoin is currently retesting a crucial re-accumulation region, between $82,000 and $93,000, where the price consolidated after previous pullbacks, including the Q1 market correction. Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC rebounded more than 7% from the local bottom and has revisited the range high resistance during Friday’s recovery. Now, Bitcoin is attempting to hold the high zone of its local range, retesting the $90,000-$91,000 area as support after being rejected from the key resistance. Previously, he pointed out that last week’s weekly close aligned with the flagship crypto’s monthly range, setting the stage for a potential floor around the $86,000 area, which would develop a new range between this level and the $93,000 resistance. To the analyst, Bitcoin must close the week, which also coincides with November’s monthly close, above $93,5000 and turn this level into support if it wants to further build on its newfound momentum and potentially revisit its two-month downtrend line, which currently sits near the $96,000 mark. “The ~$93500 level happens to be a Four-Year Cycle level. History suggests price should be able to find a way to 12-month close above ~$93500 to finish 2025 green,” Rekt Capital added on X. $98,000 Rally or $88,000 Drop Next? Market watcher Ted Pillows discussed BTC’s short-term future as it faces some resistance around the $92,000-$93,000 levels. To the analysts, reclaiming this area could propel the price towards the $98,000-$100,000 barrier in the coming weeks. On the contrary, he suggested that failing to reclaim this level will send Bitcoin’s price below the $88,000 mark. Earlier this week, Ted warned that this was one of the most important levels to reclaim and hold as support in the short term, as a rejection from this area could trigger a significant drop below the recent lows. Similarly, Daan Crypto Trades noted that the constant sell-off of the past few weeks has created “a ton of marginally lower highs, creating such a big liquidity pocket” between the $97,000-$98,000 zone. This region also aligns with key horizontal price levels in bigger timeframes, making it a “good area to watch,” as BTC continues to consolidate in a relatively tight range. Related Reading: Ethereum’s End-Of-Year Rally Still At Play? Analysts Eye 50% December Jump The trader considers that if BTC’s price breaks down, the $88,000 mark could be a good place for a higher low. However, if the price holds above the $91,800 level, it may trigger another retest of the $93,000 resistance. Ultimately, He warned that the market could likely see a “Choppy environment in the short-term surrounding Thanksgiving, which always sees pretty low volume & liquidity.” As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90,500, a 1.1% decline in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has officially slipped into dangerous territory after losing the $90,000 level for the first time since early spring, triggering widespread fear across the market. The drop has intensified concerns that BTC may be transitioning into a full bear market, as momentum weakens and buyers struggle to absorb the aggressive waves of sell pressure. Related Reading: Ethereum Approaches Historical Accumulation Level – Just 8% Away From LTH Cost Basis According to top analyst Darkfost, one of the driving forces behind the latest downturn is persistent selling from major institutional players. Data shows that Galaxy Digital has been offloading significant amounts of BTC. This steady stream of institutional selling has added weight to an already fragile market structure, likely accelerating last night’s drop. While sentiment is undeniably fearful, the combination of forced liquidations, institutional selling, and panic-driven exits may be creating the final stage of a broader reset — one that historically precedes major cycle reversals. Galaxy Digital’s Selling Accelerates Market Downside Darkfost reports that Galaxy Digital has been exceptionally active over the past several hours, adding considerable pressure to an already fragile Bitcoin market. According to the data, the firm moved more than 2,800 BTC, a sizeable amount given the current environment of fear and declining liquidity. A particularly notable portion of this activity is the 1,474 BTC transferred to Coinbase Prime, equivalent to roughly $135 million at recent prices. Such large inflows to an institutional exchange are typically interpreted as preparation to sell, and this wave of supply appears to have coincided with Bitcoin’s accelerated move below the $90,000 level. This type of selling activity from a major player like Galaxy Digital carries significant market implications. When large, sophisticated entities reduce exposure during a period of heightened volatility, it often intensifies fear among retail traders and shorter-term participants. The timing of these transfers — occurring as Bitcoin was already slipping through critical support zones — likely amplified the downside impact, contributing to the sharp overnight drop. However, while the immediate effect is clearly negative, analysts like Darkfost emphasize that such phases of heavy selling and forced repositioning are also characteristic of late-stage corrections. Once large sellers finish distributing, markets often stabilize and rebuild from stronger hands. Related Reading: $14B In Stablecoins Minted Since October Crash: Liquidity Returning To Crypto BTC Price Analysis: Testing Key MA as Fear Peaks Bitcoin’s price action on the 3-day chart shows a decisive breakdown, with BTC now trading around $90,400, sitting directly on top of the 200 moving average (red line) — a level that has historically acted as a final line of defense during major corrections. The rejection from the $110K–$115K zone triggered a cascade of lower highs, shifting market structure firmly into a short-term downtrend. Momentum has deteriorated quickly, and the clean break below both the 20-day (blue) and 50-day (green) moving averages confirms bearish control. Related Reading: Massive Bitcoin Bid Walls Spotted On Binance: Bulls Step In With 2,800 BTC Cluster Volume has spiked noticeably during the most recent candles, indicating forced selling and liquidation-driven moves rather than organic distribution. This aligns with the broader fear-driven environment and recent data showing large entities, including Galaxy Digital, offloading significant amounts of BTC. The high-volume flush suggests capitulation behavior, especially as Bitcoin revisits levels not tested since early 2025. If buyers defend this level and the price stabilizes, it could mark the beginning of a base formation. However, a clean breakdown below the 200 MA would expose the next major support near $82K–$85K, signaling deeper downside risk. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has officially lost its footing below the critical $100,000 level, rattling markets and fueling a wave of fear-driven selling. The move comes after a sharp surge in bearish sentiment, with CryptoQuant data indicating that Bitcoin’s latest decline is largely psychological rather than fundamentally driven. Related Reading: Anti-CZ Whale Scores Nearly $100M On ASTER And Altcoin Shorts As Market Sells Off Over the past several days, the market has shifted from confidence to panic at remarkable speed. The Fear & Greed Index plunged to 21 — deep in fear territory — just days after BTC briefly tapped $107K. Bullish narratives calling for a $150K–$200K breakout have vanished from social platforms, replaced by anxiety, disbelief, and calls for deeper downside. Google search trends for Bitcoin interest cooled significantly after October highs, mirroring weakening retail enthusiasm. Meanwhile, altcoin sentiment collapsed to extreme lows, hitting -81 as traders capitulated across the board. This emotional swing is not unusual for crypto. With a relatively small market structure and large speculative participation, crypto assets remain highly sensitive to sentiment shocks. In many cases, price movements are influenced more by crowd psychology than by on-chain fundamentals. While the sell-off has been intense, analysts note that network data remains resilient — raising the question of whether panic, rather than macro reality, is driving this correction. On-Chain Data Shows Strength Beneath the Sell-Off Despite Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $100K, on-chain data paints a very different picture beneath the surface. According to a CryptoQuant report by XWIN Research Japan, there is no evidence of structural weakness or network deterioration — only a sentiment-driven correction. Key network metrics remain solid. Exchange withdrawals have surged, suggesting investors are moving BTC into self-custody rather than rushing to exit the market. Meanwhile, UTXOs in loss have risen to roughly 12%, signaling discomfort — but still far from levels associated with true capitulation phases in past cycles. This indicates that most market participants remain positioned for longer-term upside. At the protocol level, Bitcoin continues to show strength. Hashrate remains near all-time highs at approximately 1.1 ZH/s, reinforcing network security and miner confidence. Whale ratio has trended lower, pointing to reduced sell-side pressure from large holders. Liquidity dynamics also support a potential rebound. Over $10.7B in stablecoins has recently flowed into Binance, providing substantial dry powder for future accumulation. Realized cap data shows long-term holders trimming some profits, but importantly, incoming demand continues to absorb supply. Overall, the pullback appears sentiment-driven rather than fundamental. On-chain signals suggest the broader uptrend remains intact — making this volatility a test of conviction, not the start of a structural reversal. Related Reading: Balancer Hacker Now Converting Loot to Ethereum: Stolen Funds Surge To $116.6M Key Support Under Pressure, Short-Term Trend Weakens Bitcoin continues to trade under heavy pressure following its breakdown from the $110,000 range, slipping below the psychological $100,000 level before stabilizing near current support around $101,800. The 4-hour chart shows a clear transition into a lower-highs, lower-lows structure, confirming short-term bearish momentum. Moving averages reinforce this weakness: price is trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, signaling that bears remain in control. The sharp impulse move down was met with a spike in volume, suggesting panic-driven selling rather than a slow, distribution-based decline. Since then, volume has normalized as price attempts to consolidate above the $100,000 region. This zone now serves as a pivotal demand area — a break below it could expose deeper downside toward $95,000–$98,000, where stronger historical liquidity sits. Related Reading: Whale Piles Into ASTER Shorts After CZ’s Comment – $52.8M On the Line Despite the selloff, Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilization. The wick below $100K indicates buyers stepped in aggressively at that level, preventing further liquidation cascades. However, bulls need to reclaim the $105,000–$107,000 band to neutralize short-term downside pressure and signal a potential recovery. For now, the trend remains fragile as market sentiment cools and traders reassess positioning. Price stability above $100K is critical — losing this range could trigger another wave of forced selling, while defending it may set the stage for a relief bounce. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
After failing to close the week above a crucial level, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to hold $100,000 as support, leading some analysts to suggest that this is the make-or-break moment for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Loses Key Support Amid 8% Drop, Risks Major Correction To This Level Bitcoin Plunges To Physiological Barrier On Tuesday, Bitcoin saw a 9% drop from its weekly opening, dropping to the $100,000 area for the first time in months. The flagship crypto has been trading above $105,000 since late June, hovering between $108,000-$120,000 over the past four months. During the early October correction, BTC’s price briefly deviated below these crucial levels, hitting a three-month low of $102,000 before recovering. Since then, the cryptocurrency has struggled to reclaim the mid-zone of its local range, falling to the $106,000-$108,000 area multiple times in the daily timeframe. As the price retested the $100,000 level, Sjuul from AltCryptoGems noted that Bitcoin has now broken below its 10th of October low, which was “the last major level before the $98K low from the Middle Eastern war fud back in June.” Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC has two massive liquidity clusters on the longer timeframes. Per the chart, the first cluster sits around the $90,000 level, which also coincides with an open CME Gap from Q2. Meanwhile, the second cluster sits around the all-time high area at $126,000. “Given that the market is looking weak now, a dump to fill the CME gap before reversal could happen,” the market watcher warned. However, Ali Martinez suggested that a 5%-11% rebound from the current area is possible. The chart shows that Bitcoin has been trading between $101,300-$124,000 price range since May, bouncing from the lower boundary each time it was retested. If BTC holds this area, it could surge to at least $106,500 or $112,000, the analyst asserted. BTC Retests 50-Week EMA Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC had reached the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The analyst explained that after closing below the 21-week EMA, Bitcoin was deviating below its range lows for the fifth consecutive week. The 21-week EMA has served as crucial support during pullbacks since late Q2. However, it was lost amid the recent market volatility. Last week, multiple analysts warned that closing above this level was crucial to turn it back into support and prevent a larger pullback. Per the Tuesday post, the 50-week EMA, sitting around the $100,000 level, “would probably only get tagged on confirmed breakdown from $108k,” meaning that the flagship crypto will need to close the week above this level to maintain its current price range. Similarly, Crypto Bullet pointed out that the 50-week MA retest was “the moment of truth” for BTC. Notably, the cryptocurrency has retested this indicator three times this cycle, marking the bottom of each corrective phase and the start of a new rally to a new all-time high (ATH). Related Reading: Is Crypto ‘Boring’ Now? Bitwise CEO Says The Market Is Changing The market watcher warned that losing this level would mean “it’s lights out” for the flagship cryptocurrency. However, a rebound from this area could set the stage for a price recovery and a potential bullish rally in late Q4. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $100,356, a 6% decline in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com