As Bitcoin (BTC) came close to slumping below the psychologically important $100,000 mark last week, the short-term holders (STH) cohort started to show signs of weakening conviction in the leading cryptocurrency, raising fears of a deeper price correction. Bitcoin STH Fear Resurfaces According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Darkfost, Bitcoin STH’s net position has turned sharply negative over the past month. This has happened despite BTC holding above the $100,000 level. For the uninitiated, Bitcoin STH are investors who have held their BTC for less than 155 days. They are generally more reactive to price volatility and market sentiment, often selling during corrections or uncertainty. Specifically, a cumulative net position change of -833,000 BTC has been recorded among short-term holders during the ongoing pullback. By comparison, the April crash saw a net position change of around -977,000 BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Signals Strength As Long-Term Holder Realized Cap Surges Past $20 Billion – Details Darkfost noted that current STH behavior closely resembles the activity observed during BTC’s brief drop below $80,000 in April 2025, when the digital asset bottomed out at $74,508. The analyst wrote: Since then, STH appear to have become much more sensitive to market movements, and the recent dip around the $100,000 mark was enough to trigger renewed fear among this group of investors. BTC Showing Signs of Reversal Although BTC lost momentum after reaching its latest all-time high (ATH) of $111,814, the leading cryptocurrency regained strength over the weekend – indicating a possible reversal may be underway. Related Reading: Bitcoin Derivatives Reset: Neutral Funding And Whale Withdrawals Hint At Bullish Shift For example, seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that BTC has broken through the key resistance level at $106,600. In a recent X post, Martinez predicted that Bitcoin could rally to $108,300 or even $110,000 if current momentum continues. In a separate X post, fellow crypto analyst Rekt Capital shared the following Bitcoin daily chart, noting that the cryptocurrency not only broke out of its two-week downtrend – highlighted in light blue – but may now be turning that former resistance into a new support level. Meanwhile, several technical indicators also point to continued bullish momentum. Notably, Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbons have recently flashed a prime buying signal. Additionally, on-chain data suggests that BTC could experience a sharp upward move in the short term, potentially driven by a negative funding rate on Binance. A prolonged period of negative funding rates often sets the stage for a short squeeze. Despite the bullish outlook, some red flags remain. Recent data shows that long-term holders are gradually exiting the market, while an influx of retail investors could add volatility to the current rally. At press time, BTC trades at $107,627, up 1.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com
On Wednesday, Bitcoin surged more than 8% to reach a high of $83,588 following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on new reciprocal tariffs for over 75 countries, excluding China. Investors and market analysts viewed the move as a signal of relief, reflecting hopes that the rapid escalation of tariffs would abate, at least temporarily. Yet President Trump simultaneously hiked the tariff rate on China to 125%, indicating that the trade battle between the world’s two largest economies remains far from settled. Trump’s decision to pause most of his newly announced tariffs was tied to concern over disruptive shifts in the bond market. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes, which had soared to a seven-week high, remained elevated after the tariff pause was revealed. Despite the temporary relief for many countries, the immediate tariff hike on China highlighted the ongoing stalemate, suggesting persistent uncertainty for global markets. Some analysts see the surge of risk assets, including Bitcoin, as partly driven by changing expectations around future negotiations. Potential China Deal Not Priced In For Bitcoin Amid this backdrop, Joe McCann, founder, CEO, CIO, and solo managing GP of the crypto fund Asymmetric, voiced his perspective on X, observing that the market was originally pricing in tariffs for China, EU and the entire world, but is now only pricing China. Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns He indicated that a deal with Beijing remains unpriced, so if a breakthrough emerges, the market “explodes” higher. “Market was priced for China, EU and everyone else getting tariffed. Market now pricing only China. Market not pricing a China deal,” McCann remarks. He also notes that “the explosion on the long end is risk parity pods blowing up,” referencing abrupt market movements in long-duration bonds. McCann sees the current environment as reminiscent of the market bottom during the COVID period, with funds starting to re-gross positions and short-sellers covering. He highlights the possibility that if the yuan strengthens against the dollar, it would likely mean China is prepared to negotiate, implying that equity and crypto markets may be trading too low. “But today, long only funds re-grossed and shorts covered.Trump has signaled max pain for China and is willing to negotiate. Market can only re-price higher. If the Yuan rallies against the Dollar tonight, that is likely a sign China wants to negotiate, which means the market is mispriced (too low). UST 30Y auction tomorrow should see further indirect bids – same story as today,” McCann writes. “Not Out Of The Woods Yet” Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, cautioned that the environment remains fragile, noting on X that weakened yuan dynamics, a still-robust 10-year yield above 4%, and ongoing credit concerns at spreads beyond 400 basis points persist as potential headwinds. According to him, “[this] will be an unpopular opinion […] we are out the woods yet […] the net outcome is still negative for risk assets,” especially if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates as previously anticipated. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst: 33% Chance Bitcoin Already Topped—Brace For $52,000 He cited this lack of monetary support as a factor that amplifies volatility. “If anything its actually more concerning how little liquidity is in the market to experience casino swings like this,” he writes via X. X user Adam Yoder agrees that “bonds still went up today, gold went up,” suggesting there are still enough safe-haven flows to keep traditional investors wary of riskier assets. Park concurred, suggesting “this is actually kind of a horrible move” and expressing confusion over what the White House hopes to achieve with a partial pause that leaves China alone to bear the brunt. Meanwhile, in a swift reversal of its earlier call, Goldman Sachs withdrew a recently announced recession baseline after the 90-day pause was confirmed. Its revised outlook, published by Jan Hatzius, maintains that total tariffs—both the existing 10% and anticipated sector-specific rates of 25%—will still be implemented, but that the market has been spared an immediate global escalation. Goldman now returns to its previous non-recession baseline forecast of 0.5% Q4/Q4 GDP growth in 2025, a 45% recession probability, and three successive 25-basis-point “insurance” cuts by the Federal Reserve in June, July, and September. According to the statement, “we continue to expect additional sector-specific tariffs” and an overall rate that could approach the 15 percentage-point increase Goldman had initially anticipated. All Eyes On Today’s CPI Release Notably, today, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March 2025 is scheduled to be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at 8:30 ET – a big report for the market which could be crucial for BTC’s next move. The CPI for February 2025 showed a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 2.8% (not seasonally adjusted), with a month-over-month (MoM) rise of 0.2% (seasonally adjusted). Core CPI, excluding food and energy, was up 3.1% YoY. This marked a slight cooling from January’s 3.0% YoY headline rate, suggesting a gradual disinflation trend. Expectations for the March CPI are to potentially drop to around 2.5% YoY, with some analysts suggesting it could even fall to 2.6% or lower if trends in housing costs, rents, and energy prices continue to ease. Core CPI is anticipated to hover around 3.0% to 3.1% YoY, reflecting persistent pressure from services and shelter costs. At press time, BTC traded at $81,438. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
According to a recent report by 10X Research, Bitcoin (BTC) may be attempting to form a local bottom, as US President Donald Trump is expected to soften his stance on reciprocal tariffs, which are set to go into effect on April 2. Up Only For Bitcoin? Bitcoin’s plunge to $77,000 on March 10 may have marked the bottom for the top cryptocurrency in the current market cycle. Since then, the digital asset has appreciated by more than 10%, trading in the mid $80,000 range at the time of writing. Related Reading: Bitcoin Needs Weekly Close Above This Level To Confirm Market Bottom, Analyst Says The 10X Research report suggests that Trump’s recent pivot toward “flexibility” on the upcoming April 2 reciprocal trade tariffs may have alleviated some concerns about further deterioration in the global macroeconomic outlook. Additionally, the report emphasizes the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) comments following this month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the central bank indicated that it would slow the pace of balance sheet drawdown and end the current cycle of quantitative tightening. The Fed’s remarks followed the release of the February 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which came in line with expectations, easing concerns about inflation. The report’s claim that BTC has formed a bottom aligns with crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes’ recent statement, where he noted that BTC may have “probably” bottomed at $77,000. The following chart illustrates a bullish reversal in BTC’s 21-day moving average, which currently sits at $85,200. The report points out that these weekly reversal signs are back at levels typically seen when past bull markets have resumed. For example, in September 2023, BTC benefited from bullish momentum as the Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) narrative gained traction. Similarly, BTC embarked on a historic rally in August 2024 as the US presidential election drew closer. Additionally, a recent post on X by seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlights that Bitcoin transaction fees have nearly tripled over the past week, indicating an uptick in network activity as market sentiment improves. BTC Still Not Completely Bullish While Trump’s softening stance on tariffs is good news for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies, BTC still needs to break through and sustain certain price levels to regain strong bullish momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Uptrend Soon? Dollar Index Breakdown Sparks Optimism Among BTC Bulls Recent analysis by Martinez identified $94,000 as a critical price level for BTC to overcome. If the digital asset decisively breaks through and sustains this level, it could be poised to climb as high as $112,000. That said, concerns remain about BTC’s relatively weak price performance compared to other safe-haven assets like gold. At press time, BTC is trading at $87,650, up 3.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from 10X Research, X, and TradingView.com
In an X post published yesterday, crypto analyst Matthew Hyland highlighted that according to the weekly timeframe chart, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to test the support level between $69,000 to $74,000 in the coming months. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Hyland noted that BTC’s weekly resistance level currently hovers around the $90,500 level. The analyst emphasized that if BTC has a weekly close above $89,000, then it may indicate that the market bottom is in. He added: If we do get a weekly close above this area ($89,000 to $91,000), I think the low is in for Bitcoin, and we are not going down to this area. To recall, BTC last traded above $89,000 earlier this month on March 9. From there, the cryptocurrency experienced a breakdown to lower price levels, primarily due to rising macroeconomic uncertainties due to US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs on numerous countries. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slips Under 200-Day Moving Average – Will The Downtrend Continue? According to data from cryptocurrency exchange Binance, after failing to defend the $89,000 level, BTC ended up falling as low as $76,606 on March 10. Since then, the digital asset has made slight recovery, buoyed by lower than anticipated US CPI inflation data and is currently trading in the low $80,000 level. BTC Faces Strong Resistance At $86,100 Similarly, in a recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, analyst Yonsei_dent highlighted the significance of short-term holder (STH) Realized Price in determining the digital asset’s future price trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Uptrend Soon? Dollar Index Breakdown Sparks Optimism Among BTC Bulls For the uninitiated, Bitcoin’s Realized Price refers to the average acquisition cost of investors while STH refers to holders who have held BTC for less than six months. These investors are typically more sensitive to market movements. The analyst remarked that the weighted average Realized Price for STHs who have held BTC for one week to six months lies around $91,800, suggesting that these investors are currently in a loss position. The three months to six months STH cohort has a Realized Price of $86,100, denoting a strong resistance level for the digital asset in the short-term. Notably, this group of holders has the highest share of Realized Cap among STHs, hinting that selling pressure could magnify around this price level. With regard to major support levels, long-term holders (LTH) with a holding time of six months to twelve months have a Realized Price of $63,700. The post adds: The highest volume profile over the past year is concentrated around $64,000. This reinforces the idea that this area could serve as a strong support level. If BTC fails to clear some of its immediate resistance levels, there is a high possibility that it may follow Arthur Hayes prediction of finding a bottom around $70,000. That said, several indicators suggest that BTC may be undervalued at its current market price. At press time, BTC trades at $81,745, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com
In the ongoing debate over Bitcoin’s market trajectory, two prominent crypto analysts have shared contrasting viewpoints on X, underscoring the community’s divided sentiment. While one maintains that a drastic downturn remains possible, the other posits that the worst of the market downturn has already passed—citing a notable 87.5% probability. Bitcoin Bears In Trouble? Crypto analyst Doctor Profit (@DrProfitCrypto) posted on X and laid out two potential paths for Bitcoin: “There are two scenarios: A) Bottom to be 68-74k region in normal market, B) Full crash towards 50k in Black Swan event.” He did not provide a specific probability for either outcome but emphasized that a Black Swan event—a term used to describe a rare, unexpected event that can drastically impact markets—cannot be ruled out. While noting that such an extraordinary downturn was previously unlikely, he now concedes that recent shifts in the macro landscape may leave room for it:“Take your bets, I would say that a Black Swan event was very unlikely in the last few months, but ask me now, I would not rule it out, rather welcome it.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Teeters On The Edge: Will This Pivot Hold Or Collapse? In direct contrast, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) responded with a more bullish outlook, asserting that the bottom is already behind us. He referenced a track record of Bitcoin price reversals around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, claiming it works “14 out of 16 times,” or roughly 87.5% of the time. “Not guarantees, but an 87.5% chance, granted the chart below and all the confluences I already presented. So far so good.” His approach relies on mapping out price movements in proximity to FOMC dates, noting that markets often price in interest rate decisions (and related news) before official announcements. Astronomer’s method contends that Bitcoin typically finds local bottoms in a window spanning from up to five “2D bars” before an FOMC date to the day of the meeting itself. “All it requires is flip on a daily (or 2 daily in my case to keep the chart clean) timeframe, plot out all the dates FOMC meeting appeared, and see what price did. This shows that indeed price tends to reverse when time is nearing into FOMC. The caveat is that the price reverses before or at the very latest, right at the FOMC day,” the analyst writes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shows Signs of Recovery—Is the Whale Sell-Off Finally Over? He points out that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 19, meaning the bottom—if the historical pattern holds—should appear no later than that date: “Works almost every time, 14 out of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time)… The time difference the bottom happens versus the FOMC day is usually 0 to 5 2D bars before the exact date. Given the next FOMC is the 19th of March, that means the low is in the latest that day and the earliest the 5th of March.” To bolster his argument, Astronomer points to what he perceives as “peaking fear” in the market. He views heightened pessimism and “cautionary posts out of nowhere” from established traders as typical signals that a rebound could be imminent: “Sentiment wise, fear is peaking to hilarious levels. Even ‘Reputable’ traders are protecting their reputation […] I don’t blame anyone’s methods, but I take it as a great sign of a bottom.” At press time, BTC traded at $83,277. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
According to crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to bottom around $70,000, marking a 36% correction from its latest all-time high (ATH) of $108,786. Hayes stated that such corrections are “very normal” in a bull market. Bitcoin To Dip Further? Yesterday, Bitcoin hit a four-month low of $76,606 as both the global cryptocurrency and stock markets tumbled amid rising fears of an economic recession. For context, the S&P 500 (SPX) has dropped nearly 8% over the past month. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slips Under 200-Day Moving Average – Will The Downtrend Continue? Latest data from predictions market platform Polymarket assigns a 39% chance of a US recession in 2025. On February 28, the platform gave a 23% probability of a US recession this year. Despite these economic concerns, Hayes advises crypto investors to remain patient. In an X post published yesterday, the former BitMEX CEO stated that BTC will likely find a bottom around $70,000, completing a routine 36% correction from its ATH in January. Hayes further noted that once BTC hits $70,000, traditional financial markets – including the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (NDX) – would need to experience a sharp decline, accompanied by failures in major financial institutions. This, in turn, would prompt central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to initiate quantitative easing (QE), creating an optimal buying opportunity. He added: Then you load up the truck. Traders will try to buy the dip, if you are more risk averse wait for the central banks to ease then deploy more capital. You might not catch the bottom but you also won’t have to mentally suffer through a long period of sideways and potential unrealised losses. Historical data suggests that QE has been highly beneficial for BTC’s price. During the last QE period, from March 2020 to November 2021 – amid the COVID pandemic – BTC surged from $6,000 to as high as $69,000, marking an astonishing 1,050% gain. Similarly, crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe shared the following chart, noting that BTC likely completed a double-bottom re-test and experienced a strong bounce after yesterday’s potential low. He further suggested that if BTC breaks past $83,500, it could see an even stronger move to the upside. Data Points Toward BTC Trend Reversal While Hayes predicts that BTC has yet to bottom, several indicators suggest the flagship cryptocurrency may soon witness a trend reversal. For instance, BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at its lowest level since August 2024, signaling that a potential recovery may be imminent. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fills CME Gap Between $78,000 and $80,000 – Is A Reversal Around The Corner? Additionally, the US dollar index (DXY) recently experienced one of its largest weekly declines since 2013, raising hopes for a rally in risk-on assets like Bitcoin. At press time, BTC is trading at $80,008, up 0.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from X and TradingView.com
Earlier today, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $80,000 for the first time in over three months. According to data from Binance, BTC hit a low of $78,258, filling the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap between $78,000 and $80,000. Bitcoin Fills CME Gap, Is It Time For Rebound? With today’s dip, BTC has now filled every CME gap since March 2024. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading in the low $80,000 range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Its Most Oversold Level Since August 2024 – Is A Rebound Coming? For the uninitiated, the CME gap refers to the price difference that occurs on the CME Bitcoin futures chart between Friday’s closing price and Monday’s opening price, as CME does not trade on weekends. These gaps are often filled later as Bitcoin’s price naturally retraces to these levels, acting as key support or resistance zones. A new CME gap has now emerged due to the ongoing market sell-off, triggered by US President Donald Trump’s confirmation that trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico will take effect on March 4. According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, the new CME gap lies between $92,800 and $94,000. If past data is anything to go by, this new CME gap may work as a price magnet, pulling BTC upward and initiating a bullish trend reversal. For example, back in January 2021, BTC filled a CME gap between $29,410 and $33,050. After filling the gap, BTC continued to dip further, before surging to as high as $40,000. That said, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors remain significant. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Trump continue to clash over interest rate policies. While the Fed has maintained that it is in no rush to cut rates, Trump has repeatedly called for immediate reductions. However, positive inflation data could pressure the Fed to accelerate rate cuts. According to an X post by The Kobeissi Letter, January’s PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred measure – aligned with its projection of 2.5%. Similarly, core inflation – which measures the change in consumer prices excluding volatile items like food and energy – was in-line with expectations of 2.6% as well. However, data from CME FedWatch suggests that the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 19 FOMC meeting. Is The BTC Bottom In? Although BTC has fallen nearly 20% over the past month, some analysts believe further downside may still be ahead. A recent forecast from Standard Chartered suggests BTC could decline another 10% before finding support. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Showing Early Signs Of Bullish Divergence? Analyst Explains However, there are also signs that BTC may be forming a local bottom. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that sell-side pressure is easing, which could indicate that BTC is stabilizing. Additionally, the Cryptoasset Sentiment Index recently flashed a strong contrarian buy signal, further hinting at a potential price floor for BTC. At press time, BTC trades at $83,508, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from X and TradingView.com
The Head of Research at CryptoQuant has revealed why it may be too early to call a bottom for Bitcoin, based on the trend in on-chain data. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Has Plunged Under Its 365-Day MA In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has talked about why Bitcoin may not have reached a bottom yet. “All valuation metrics are in correction territory,” notes the analyst. “It can take more time.” Related Reading: XRP Indicator Reliable Since 2022 Now Gives This Signal An indicator that Moreno has cited as an example of this trend is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score. This metric basically tells us about how the market cap of the asset compares against its realized cap. The “realized cap” is an on-chain capitalization model that calculates the total value of the BTC supply by assuming that each token in circulation has its ‘true’ value equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. In other words, the realized cap sums up the cost basis of the cryptocurrency’s supply. As such, the model can be interpreted as a measure of the total amount of capital the investors as a whole have put into BTC. Since the MVRV Z-Score compares the market cap, which represents the value the investors are holding right now, against this initial investment, it tells us about the profit-loss status of the cryptocurrency’s user base. The MVRV Z-Score is similar to the popular MVRV Ratio, but where it differs from the latter is that it also applies a standard deviation test to pull out the extremes from the data. Now, here is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score, as well as its 365-day moving average (MA), over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has recently witnessed a sharp decline. The reason for this drawdown naturally lies in the crash that the asset’s price has just gone through, which has put many investors into a state of loss. Despite the plummet, though, the metric remains above the zero mark. Below this level, the overall market enters into a state of loss, so the boundary has historically proven to be an important one for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mega Whales The Primary Sellers During Price Crash, Analytics Firm Reveals An important level that the metric has indeed lost, however, is the 365-day MA. As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, past breakdowns of the line have generally led to notable periods of struggle for the Bitcoin price. It only remains to be seen how long BTC would have to stay under the level this time around, before its price reaches a bottom. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $86,300, down more than 11% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has been trading sideways in a tight consolidation range, staying below key supply levels while holding strong above crucial demand zones. This phase of indecision has divided market sentiment, with many leaning toward a bullish trend that could result in an aggressive move in the coming days. While uncertainty lingers, analysts are optimistic that Bitcoin is preparing for its next significant price action. Related Reading: Ethereum Indicator Flashes Buy Signal On The Weekly Chart – Potential For A Rebound? Renowned analyst Jelle shared a technical analysis on X, revealing that Bitcoin is still building a 4-hour rounding bottom, a bullish pattern that often precedes a breakout. Jelle highlighted that a new higher high was set on Friday, signaling potential momentum in favor of the bulls. This formation suggests that Bitcoin could be gearing up for a move toward reclaiming key levels, including the much-anticipated $100K mark. Despite the recent sideways price action, Bitcoin’s resilience above crucial demand zones reflects underlying strength. Many traders and investors are keeping a close watch, as this consolidation could soon come to an end. Whether BTC breaks above its supply zone or retraces to retest lower levels, the next move is expected to set the tone for short-term market direction. All eyes remain on Bitcoin as the market awaits confirmation. Bitcoin Prepares For A Massive Move Bitcoin’s price remains driven by speculation and uncertainty as short-term price action continues to be unpredictable. The price has struggled to reclaim the $100K mark, leaving analysts divided over its next move. Some are calling for a cycle top at $109K, while others believe that Bitcoin is setting the stage for a massive rally once it consolidates and establishes strong demand at current levels. Jelle shared a technical analysis on X, highlighting that Bitcoin is still forming a rounding bottom pattern above the $94K level—a bullish structure that signals accumulation and potential upward momentum. He pointed out that a new higher high was set on Friday, strengthening the case for a possible breakout. According to Jelle, if Bitcoin can hold for another higher low over the weekend, bulls could push the price toward the critical $100K mark next week. Despite the ongoing uncertainty, the rounding bottom pattern offers a glimmer of optimism for the market. Bitcoin’s ability to stay above the $94K level reflects its resilience, even amid volatility. Traders and investors are closely monitoring this consolidation phase, as it could determine the next significant trend for BTC. Related Reading: Dogecoin Adam & Eve Structure Hints At Bullish Potential – Can DOGE Breakout? If the price successfully reclaims the $100K mark, a rally toward the $109K cycle top becomes increasingly likely. Conversely, failing to hold current levels could lead to a deeper correction. The coming days will be crucial for Bitcoin’s short-term direction, with both bulls and bears battling for control. BTC Price Struggles With Short-Term Direction Bitcoin is trading at $97,700 after briefly tagging the 4-hour 200 EMA near $98,800, sitting less than 3% below the crucial $100K level. Bulls are striving to reclaim the $98K level and push the price above the psychological $100K mark, a critical resistance zone that has kept BTC in a consolidation phase. Breaking above $100K would signal renewed momentum and could set the stage for a strong uptrend. The $98K and $100K levels are key short-term hurdles for bulls, as reclaiming these zones would restore confidence and likely attract more buyers. A successful breakout above the $100K mark could ignite a rally, taking Bitcoin into higher territory and possibly testing all-time highs. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Have Bought Over 600,000 ETH In The Past Week – Time For A Price Upswing? On the flip side, downside risks remain significant. Losing the $94K support level could trigger a correction into lower demand zones around $89K, where buyers might step in to prevent further declines. Such a move would signal continued market indecision and could lead to extended consolidation or even bearish pressure. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holders have started selling at a loss. Here’s what this could mean for the cryptocurrency’s price. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Has Just Dipped Under 1 As pointed out by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of the short-term holders has declined into the red zone recently. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Plummets To Neutral: Reversal Signal? The “SOPR” here refers to an on-chain indicator that tells us whether the BTC investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss. The metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin being sold/transferred on the network to see what price it was transacted at prior to this. If the last transfer price of the coin was less than the current spot value it’s being sold at now, then its sale could be assumed to be leading to profit realization. Similarly, transactions of the tokens of the opposite type correspond to loss-taking. The SOPR adds up the profits and losses being realized across the network in this manner and calculates what their ratio stands at. In the context of the current topic, the SOPR of only a particular segment of the sector is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). This cohort is made up of the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. When the indicator has a value greater than 1, it means the STHs as a whole are selling their coins at a profit. On the other hand, it is under the threshold implies loss realization is dominant among these holders. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin STH SOPR over the past decade: As is visible in the above graph, the 7-day SMA of the Bitcoin STH SOPR shot up to high levels above the 1 mark during the last couple of months of 2024, implying the group was participating in significant profit-taking during the asset’s run to new all-time highs. This wasn’t anything unusual, as STHs have historically proven themselves to represent the fickle-minded side of the market, who sell at first sight of any major change in the market, like a rally or crash. Predictably, with the market downturn that has followed in the last few weeks, the STHs have shown another shift, as their profit-taking has calmed down and loss-taking has started taking over. The 7-day SMA of the indicator has declined to 0.99, which suggests the loss realization is now just ahead of the profit realization. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Explains What Could Trigger Ethereum Rally To $6,000 From the chart, it’s apparent that past capitulation events have generally coincided with tops for Bitcoin. So far, though, the level of loss-taking isn’t anything too notable, which may suggest the indicator could have to decline a bit more before BTC finds a bullish reversal. BTC Price Bitcoin has erased the recent recovery as its price has seen another 3% plunge during the past day, which has taken it to $91,600. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price is chasing $95,000 after showing modest gains today as several onchain BTC metrics are hinting at signs of a potential bottom.
Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has witnessed a plunge to two-year lows recently. Here’s what this could mean for BTC’s price. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index Has Plummeted Over The Past Month As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the BTC Coinbase Premium Index has seen a sharp drawdown into negative territory recently. The “Coinbase Premium Index” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the difference between the Bitcoin price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). This metric’s value can tell us about the difference in the buying and selling behaviors of the investors present in the two cryptocurrency exchange giants. More specifically, the indicator represents how the moves of the American institutional entities (the dominant force on Coinbase) differ from those of the global whales. When the Coinbase Premium Index has a positive value, it means the asset is trading at a higher rate on Coinbase than on Binance. Such a trend implies that US-based whales participate in a higher amount of buying (or a lower amount of selling) than global investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Decline Continues: Is $86,800 The Level To Watch? On the other hand, the metric being under the zero mark suggests that Binance users are the ones taking part in the higher amount of buying, as the coin is going for a higher price there. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index was at a positive level during the cryptocurrency’s exploration of new highs in the last two months of 2024. The pattern observed throughout the year was that the American institutional investors occupied the driving seat in the market, with shifts in buying and selling pressure from them reflecting in the asset’s price. Around mid-December, the indicator started to dip into the negative territory and has since maintained the trajectory. BTC’s spot value has also shown a downward trajectory alongside this trend, so it seems that Coinbase users continue to play a prime role in the sector. Following the latest continuation of the drop, the Coinbase Premium Index has dipped lower than the low from October. In fact, the indicator has now been at its lowest value since November 2022, more than two years ago. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Now Worst Since Mid-October: Reversal Signal? Considering that the Coinbase whales have been important for Bitcoin’s direction in the past year, the indicator being locked in a downtrend could spell further doom for the cryptocurrency’s price. That said, the asset has historically tended to bottom out when selling pressure has become too strong on Coinbase, as eventually new buyers start showing up to take coins at a cheaper rate off the hands of the sellers. The sharp negative spike alongside the FTX crash also resulted in a major bottom for BTC. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the FUD from the US-based investors has reached a high enough level for a bottom or not. BTC Price Bitcoin has kicked the new year off on a positive note as the asset’s price has seen a recovery rally to the $96,600 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the Bitcoin market sentiment is still quite close to the extreme greed zone, a potential sign that a further price cooldown may be needed before a bottom. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Still Has A High Greed Value The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment among investors in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. The index uses a numeric scale that runs from zero to hundred for representing this mentality. Its value being greater than 53 means the investors as a whole are showing greed, while it being under 47 implies the presence of fear in the market. Values lying between these cutoffs correspond to a net neutral sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Giving Potential Buy Signal, Quant Says Now, here is how the current sentiment in the sector looks according to the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index: As is visible above, the indicator has a value of 73 at the moment, which suggests the average trader is holding a sentiment of greed. This greed sentiment is also a particularly strong one, so strong in fact that it’s sitting very close to a special region called the extreme greed. The extreme greed occurs when the index reaches a value of 75 or higher. A similar zone also exists for the fear side, known as the extreme fear, and is situated at 25 or under. Historically, the extreme sentiments have proven to be important for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as tops and bottoms have tended to occur while the market has been inside these zones. The relationship between price and sentiment has generally been an inverse one, meaning extreme greed leads to tops and extreme fear to bottoms. The BTC top earlier in the month occurred when the index was at a value of 87. With the price decline that has occurred since then, market sentiment has cooled off a bit. The question is: has it cooled enough? While other phases of the market usually require dips into fear or extreme fear for bottoms to take place, bull markets generally don’t see pullbacks that deep. Related Reading: Dogecoin & Other Memecoins No Longer Grabbing Social Media Attention: Santiment Often times, a venture into the normal greed zone or the neutral territory is enough for the price to regain steam. That said, the recent sentiment has still been quite close to extreme greed, so it may need a bit more before a real turnaround is reached. The Fear & Greed Index calculates its value using multiple factors, one of which is social media sentiment. While the overall sentiment has still been positive, it seems social media users have started to show fear, as the analytics firm Santiment has pointed out in an X post. BTC Price Bitcoin has shown a sharp 6% rebound during the last 24 hours, a potential indication that the dip into the greed sentiment may have been enough for the rally to restart after all. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com
A Bitcoin indicator created by the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has just given a signal that could suggest the exhaustion of selling pressure in the market. Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion Has Just Registered A Spike In a new post on X, Glassnode has shared an update on the Seller Exhaustion Composite for the Weekly-Monthly Bitcoin traders. The “Seller Exhaustion Composite” here refers to an indicator that basically identifies whether selling on the network has reached a state of exhaustion or not. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Cools Down From Extreme Greed: Can Rally Restart Now? The metric bases itself on a few on-chain indicators, with perhaps the most notable being the Realized Loss, which measures the total amount of loss that the BTC investors are locking in. Historically, the cryptocurrency’s price has tended to form bottoms whenever holder capitulation has reached a high. In such loss-taking events, coins transfer from the weak hands to the resolute entities, so the risk of further selling reduces, allowing for the asset to find a rebound. In the context of the current topic, the Seller Exhaustion Composite of only the Weekly-Monthly BTC traders is of interest. These are the investors who purchased their coins between one day and one month ago. The reason Glassnode has picked this specific cohort is that there is a statistical relationship between holding time and the tendency to sell. The HODLers of the market carry their coins for long periods and, therefore, aren’t very likely to participate in selling at any point. The only times that these diamond hands are forced into capitulation are the major cyclical downturns. On the other hand, the investors who are relatively fresh buyers can be prone to panic selling, so loss taking from them can appear in all phases of the cycle, even the bull market. Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion Composite for new buyers in the market: As displayed in the above graph, the Seller Exhaustion Composite has just flashed a signal for the Bitcoin Weekly-Monthly traders. “This reflects high locked-in losses from BTC traders active in the last month,” notes Glassnode. Related Reading: Current Bitcoin Hashrate Can Sustain $4.9 Trillion Cap, CryptoQuant CEO Reveals The latest round of capitulation from these recent buyers has come as the cryptocurrency’s price has seen a tumble after its all-time high (ATH) above the $99,000 level. From the chart, it’s visible that the instances of high loss taking from this cohort all coincided with some sort of bottom in the price during the past year. Given this pattern, it’s possible that Bitcoin may be able to find another bottom off the back of the capitulation this time as well. BTC Price Bitcoin had slipped all the way down towards $90,000 a couple of days back, but the coin seems to have made some recovery as it’s now floating around $95,400. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is at a crucial point after several days of recovery and consolidation. On August 5, it experienced a sharp capitulation event, with the price dropping to a monthly low of $49,577. While some investors remain skeptical, believing Bitcoin hasn’t reached its bottom yet, key data from CryptoQuant suggests that the worst might be over. […]
Bitcoin is chasing $60,000, and altcoins are showing modest gains today. Does that mean the crypto market has bottomed?
Crypto analyst Astronomer, known by the handle @astronomer_zero on X, has put forth a potentially compelling bottom signal for Bitcoin, which hinges on the electricity costs incurred by miners to produce BTC. According to him, this particular metric has historically served as a reliable indicator for identifying optimal buying opportunities within Bitcoin’s price cycles. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? The analysis titled “BTC Miners electricity cost, a 100% accurate bottom signal,” leverages data to illustrate a scenario where the cost of Bitcoin production dips below its market price, suggesting a pivotal moment for potential investors. Astronomer elaborated on his methodology and findings by referencing his previous predictions which successfully pinpointed market tops, notably a 30% drop from a $70,000 peak, which was guided by similarly data-driven signals. Related Reading: Is Another Bitcoin Crash Coming? Top Analyst Highlights Alarming Trend! Astronomer’s current focus on the cost of mining stems from its significant implications on Bitcoin’s supply dynamics. Despite the halving events designed to reduce the reward for mining Bitcoin, there remains a 0.84% annual inflation in its supply, equating to roughly $10 billion worth of Bitcoin entering the market each year. This is equivalent to the total holdings of significant corporate investors like MicroStrategy, indicating a substantial influx of Bitcoin from miners, who are inclined to sell gradually to sustain their operations. However, the current market conditions, as described by Astronomer, have reached a rare state where the market price of Bitcoin has fallen below the average weighted cost of electricity required to mine it. This situation typically constrains miners from selling their holdings at a profit, thus potentially reducing the sell pressure on the market. “Not only does that mean that the miners can’t sell their BTC for a profit. It also means that it is simply cheaper to just log into a CEX and buy 1 Bitcoin, instead of going through the pain of mining 1 Bitcoin. So not only does this make the miners (the people controlling BTC) not want to sell, it also makes them want to buy, because it is cheaper to just buy instead of mine them,” Astronomer suggests. Related Reading: $170 Million In Crypto Longs Bite The Dust As Bitcoin Plunges Under $57,000 This shift not only impacts the selling behavior of miners but also their buying strategies, contributing to a decrease in supply pressure and possibly triggering upward price movements. Astronomer supports his claim by pointing out that historically, when the cost of production fell below the market price, it has consistently led to substantial price recoveries. He detailed instances from the recent past, including notable dips in March 2023 when Bitcoin hit $19,500, November 2022 at $16,500, June 2022 at $18,000, May 2020 at $8,900, March 2020 at $4,700, and November 2018 when it bottomed out at $3,500. Each of these moments was followed by robust bull runs, underlining the potential reliability of this signal. “How many times? 17 out of 17 times, it meant that price was at levels that, according to history (with high statistical significance), you would want to buy, or would miss and regret it for a very long time,” the analyst adds. Currently, with the production cost of Bitcoin, according to Capriole Investment’s data, standing at $60,711 and the price lingering at $56,713, the conditions described by Astronomer are manifesting yet again. This juxtaposition poses a critical question to the market: Is now the time to buy? While Astronomer’s analysis is backed by historical data and detailed market observation, he remains cautiously optimistic about the outcomes, encapsulated in his closing remark, “Will this time be different? Maybe.” At press time, BTC traded at $56,804. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has dipped into the bottom region, which may be bullish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Seen A Sharp Decline Recently As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is giving a bottom signal for the third time in 2024. The “NVT ratio” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and transaction volume. When the value of this metric is high, it means the asset’s value (that is, the market cap) is high when compared to the network’s ability to transact coins (the transaction volume). Such a trend could imply the BTC price is overvalued. Related Reading: XRP Sharks & Whales Push Bags To ATH As Price Rockets 19% On the other hand, the low indicator suggests the market cap is low compared to the transfer volume, so the cryptocurrency’s price could have room for growth. In the context of the current topic, a modified version of the NVT ratio is the actual indicator of relevance: the NVT Golden Cross. This metric compares the short-term trend of the metric with its long-term one to determine the appearances of local tops and bottoms in the NVT ratio. More particularly, the 10-day moving average (MA) stands for the short-term trend and the 30-day MA for the long-term. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the over the past few months: In the graph, the quant has highlighted the two regions of the NVT Golden Cross that have historically been relevant for cryptocurrency. At values above 2.2, the asset can be assumed to be close to the top, as here, the short-term trend of the NVT ratio has significantly surpassed its long-term one. Similarly, the zone under -1.6 is where bottoms can probably form. From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has observed a plunge recently as the Bitcoin price itself has crashed down. The metric has entered the latter region, suggesting that the coin may have become underpriced. This is the third time that the NVT Golden Cross has breached this territory this year, with the first instance occurring back in January, during the price drawdown that had followed the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. This period of the asset being undervalued was followed by a rally towards the new all-time high (ATH). Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Jumps 39% From Crash Low, But Is This Rally Sustainable? The second instance of the indicator entering the bottoming zone was last month, with the low paving the way for a rally toward $70,000. Given that both of these occurrences proved bullish for Bitcoin, it remains to be seen where this third one leads. BTC Price Bitcoin has furthered its recovery during the past day as its price has now broken back above the $58,200 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin network is finally witnessing a major influx of new users after hitting multi-year lows in adoption earlier in the year. Bitcoin New Addresses Has Reversed Trend Since June Bottom According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin has been seeing growth in daily new addresses recently. A “new […]
Using five different crypto exchanges suggests that the wallet sought to maximize liquidity on each order book and sell Bitcoin as soon as possible.
Data shows the Bitcoin sentiment is close to entering into the extreme greed zone. Here’s what this could mean for the cryptocurrency’s price. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Continued To Decline Recently The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator developed by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment that traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency market currently share. The index uses five factors to determine this sentiment: volatility, trading volume, social media, market cap dominance, and Google Trends. The metric uses a numeric scale that runs from zero to hundred for representing the mentality. Related Reading: Social Media Screams “Sell” As Bitcoin Crashes To $54,000: Buy Signal? All values of the indicator above the 53 mark suggest the presence of greed among the investors, while those below 47 imply the dominance of fear. The region in between these two thresholds correlates to a neutral sentiment. Now, here is what the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is looking like right now: As is visible above, Bitcoin Fear & Greed currently has a value of 28, meaning that the average investor is showing fear. The degree of fearfulness must also be quite notable, as this current value is pretty deep into the territory. In fact, the latest level of the indicator is quite close to a special region called the “extreme fear.” Investors display extreme fear when the index goes under 25. There is also a similar zone for the greed side as well, which is known as “extreme greed” and occurs above 75. During the first half of last month, the metric had been in or close to the latter region, but the recent downturn in the market has sharply degraded the sentiment to the other end of the spectrum. Historically, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have tended to show moves opposite to what the majority are expecting. The stronger the crowd’s expectation gets, the higher the probability of such a contrary move becomes. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Undervalued Now? Industry Expert Decodes The Market State The extreme sentiments are where the traders are leaning towards one direction too much. As such, major tops and bottoms in the asset have usually formed when the index has been in these zones. Because of this fact, some traders prefer to buy when investors are showing extreme fear and sell during extreme greed. This trading philosophy is popularly called “contrarian investing.” Warren Buffet’s famous quote sums up the idea, “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” As the Bitcoin Fear & Greed index is approaching the extreme fear territory, it’s possible that the cryptocurrency could once again show profitable entry points soon, if the past is anything to go by. BTC Price Bitcoin has so far been unable to make too much recovery from its recent crash, as its price is still trading around $56,700. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com
Bitfinex analysts pointed out several reasons suggesting that Bitcoin’s bloodbath should be over soon.
The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index shows that the sentiment around the asset has cooled off a bit recently, something that could pave the way for a rebound. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Gone Through Some Decline Recently The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among the investors in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency market To determine the trader mentality, the index takes into consideration for these five factors: volatility, trading volume, social media sentiment, market cap dominance, and Google Trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin FOMO: Over 533,330 Addresses Bought Above $70,180 The metric uses a numeric scale that runs from zero to hundred for representing this sentiment. A score of 46 or less implies the presence of fear among the investors, while that of 54 and above suggests greed in the market. The territory between these two (47 to 53) naturally corresponds to the neutral mentality. Besides these three sentiments, there are also two extreme sentiments called “extreme greed” and “extreme fear.” The extreme greed occurs at values above 75, while the extreme fear takes place below 25. Historically, these two sentiments have been quite relevant for BTC’s trajectory. Tops have generally tended to form when the investors have held the former sentiment, while bottoms have been probable to happen when the market has been in the latter region. At present, the traders are holding a mentality of extreme greed, as the latest data of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index shows. Looks like the value of the metric is 77 at the moment | Source: Alternative As is visible, the indicator’s value is 77 right now, meaning that while it’s indeed inside extreme greed, it’s only so just. This is a fresh change from how it has been recently, as the chart below displays. The value of the indicator appears to have been going down recently | Source: Alternative From the graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has mostly stayed deep inside the extreme greed region recently. On the 14th of this month, the indicator hit the 88 mark, and alongside this high, the BTC price registered its current all-time high of about $73,800. Since this peak, though, the asset has plunged, and it appears that alongside it, so has the sentiment among the traders. As mentioned earlier, tops have been more likely to occur when the market has shared a mentality of extreme greed and this probability has generally only gone up the more extreme levels the metric has hit. This could perhaps explain why the recent top occurred when it did. Another top this month, the one that took place on the 5th, also coincided with high values in the Fear & Greed Index (a peak of 90 this time). Related Reading: Bitcoin To $53,200? Why History Says It’s Possible Shortly after this earlier peak and the plummet in the cryptocurrency that had followed, the asset found its bottom as the metric briefly exited the extreme greed region. As the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is once again looking to dip outside this territory, it’s possible that a bottom may be near for the price this time as well. It now remains to be seen if the sentiment would cool down enough in the coming days so as to leave the extreme region behind, at least temporarily. BTC Price Bitcoin had plunged towards $64,500 during the weekend, but it seems the coin has made some recovery in the past day as it’s now back at $68,000. The price of the coin seems to have gone through some volatility recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Yiğit Ali Atasoy on Unsplash.com, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com