THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Monday’s Bitcoin (BTC) rebound—pushing back above the $63,00 area—has revived a major question: was last Friday’s drop to $59,000 the bottom for BTC?  Seeking to answer that, market analyst Ali Martinez released a new technical note on X (formerly Twitter), arguing that Bitcoin appears poised to reach a market bottom while a “major macro accumulation cycle” begins to form. Why The Sell-off Could Signal A Bottom In Martinez’s view, BTC’s decline to its lowest level since 2024 served as an important cleansing function for the market—effectively shaking out “overleveraged premiums” across the board.  That type of flush, Martinez argues, is often what makes bottoms possible: it removes leverage stress and forces late and speculative positions to unwind. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Needs This To Happen, Glassnode Analyst Reveals A central part of his explanation is the role of long-term holders. Martinez claims that long-term investors distributed more than $3.25 billion worth of spot Bitcoin during the downswing.  He says this distributed supply temporarily raised exchange reserves, which can translate into increased potential selling pressure as coins move closer to trading venues.  Supporting that point, Martinez also cites data indicating that over 54,000 BTC have moved onto trading platforms over the past two weeks, which he frames as a further contributor to the selling dynamic. Next Bitcoin Targets Even with Monday’s recovery, Martinez emphasizes what happened at the downside. He points out that following the move down to $59,000, more than 10.46 million BTC are currently held at a loss.  In his technical framework, that’s a key threshold to watch. Martinez notes that historically, when the “supply-in-loss” metric crosses the extreme 10 million BTC level, it has helped time macro bottoms with notable accuracy. From there, Martinez turns to the MVRV Pricing Bands, which he describes as offering “geometric targets” for where Bitcoin accumulation windows tend to mature.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Will ‘Pump Hard’ After This Happens, Analyst Clocks Generational Entry According to his post, the most reliable accumulation periods historically occur when Bitcoin settles within the 1.0 to 0.8 MVRV bands. Martinez says those bands align with two specific target areas: approximately $53,900 and $43,150.  In other words, if the bottom is indeed approaching or forming now, he suggests the market may gravitate toward those zones as the next stages in a broader consolidation-and-accumulation process. Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its decline on Friday, sliding to levels not seen since early February, leaving the broader market under renewed pressure and deepening bearish sentiment.  Since reaching its all-time high of $126,000 last October, Bitcoin is now down roughly 52%, reinforcing the sense that the sell-off is more than a short-term dip. Bitcoin Treasury Stocks Fall From $134B To $72B While traditional market weakness has been part of the story, whale activity has also played a major role in the most recent drop. One of the clearest signals that unnerved traders came from Strategy (MSTR).  Related Reading: XRP Price Falls To 4-Month Lows—Charts Signal Sell, On-Chain Data Turns Bearish As previously reported by NewsBTC, Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in nearly four years. The company offloaded 32 BTC for approximately $2.5 million—an amount that may look small compared with overall market volumes.  However, the real impact has been psychological. Watching the largest Bitcoin public holder and the face of the “never sell” narrative break that behavior sent a shockwave through crypto sentiment. The broader market’s reaction has been visible in equity-linked crypto holdings as well. Artemis data cited by Bloomberg shows that the combined market value of fully diluted Bitcoin treasury company stocks has fallen to about $72 billion, compared with nearly $134 billion at the most recent peak in early October. That means roughly $62 billion has been erased during the downturn.  Support Could Form Between $54,000 And $50,000 Hayden Hughes, managing partner at Tokenize Capital, said the current environment forces difficult choices for these digital-asset treasuries. In his view, once prices unwind, companies face a stark decision: either default on their debt obligations or sell assets.  Hughes added that this kind of forced selling damages the market’s earlier assumption that Bitcoin treasury holders would behave like permanent “buy and hold” participants. When that expectation breaks, sentiment can deteriorate quickly, making rebounds less likely under these conditions. Related Reading: Coinbase Reveals First Mortgage With Bitcoin Collateral Under Fannie Mae Coverage  Market analyst Ali Martinez recently posted on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin is approaching a market bottom. Martinez identified the MVRV Pricing Bands as a useful framework for determining where support could emerge.  He stated that the next significant support level is between $54,000 and $50,000, which could serve as a floor for the cryptocurrency. However, this would require an additional 17% retracement from current trading levels of $60,444.  Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com 

While Bitcoin (BTC) trades at its lowest levels in months, some market watchers have warned that the leading crypto may be preparing for another major drop as it retests a critical technical area that has historically marked a turning point. Related Reading: Zcash Fixes Critical Orchard Vulnerability As ZEC Holds $600 Support Bitcoin Tags Key 200‑Week SMA After Four Years After falling 15% over the past four days, Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $64,000 level as support. The flagship crypto had been trading between $64,000-$82,000 since the early February crash, holding above the upper half of the range for nearly two months. However, this week’s broader volatility pushed BTC toward the range’s lower boundary for the first time in months, reaching a four-month low of $61,383 on Wednesday night. Amid this performance, market observer Rekt Capital highlighted that the cryptocurrency had tagged the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time in this bear cycle, which may signal that another correction is coming. As he explained, deviation below this SMA has “historically been the key to building out a Bear Market bottom formation.” In June 2022, Bitcoin reached this level during its bear market correction, quickly losing it as support on the weekly timeframe. Following the initial drop below the 200-week SMA, the leading crypto traded sideways, briefly retesting this level before continuing its descent to its late 2022 bear market bottom. Now, BTC has reached this key SMA nearly four years later, suggesting a drop to new lows if the 2022 playbook repeats. The analyst noted that Bitcoin has been rejected from a critical area and has broken a key level, another similarity to past bear market corrections. According to the post, BTC was rejected from the base of the Macro Triangle after failing to break past the $82,500 area, revisited the 50-Month EMA during the recent drop, and is currently breaking down from this EMA, a setup that has repeated each cycle before the market bottom. BTC’s $60,000 Support About To Give In? Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin rallies from the $60,000 region have progressively weakened since 2024, signaling deteriorating support. While the price surged 113% from this area during the mid-2024 rally, the February 2026 retest only generated a 38% move. Now, the cryptocurrency has bounced 4% so far, “but it’s very likely that the rebound from here will be even weaker,” the analyst stated, adding that the “$60,000 area will be completely lost as support over time.” He also stated that during bear markets, Bitcoin tends to form multi-month price clusters, followed by new Macro Lower Highs before distributing from the clusters to reach new lows. “The good news is there are 1-2 such clusters left in this Bitcoin Bear Market, with the Bear Market Bottom being the final cluster,” he concluded. Related Reading: Ethereum Ready For The ‘Final Dip’? Analysts Call For New Lows As Price Retests $1,900 Meanwhile, Ali Martinez affirmed that the recent breakdown from the $72,000 support has left Bitcoin “in a vulnerable position,” as it opens the door for a 25%-30% correction based on the MVRV Pricing Bands. The analyst previously noted that Bitcoin has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands over the past decade. Now, the next major area of support is between $54,000 and $50,000, where the 1.0 pricing band is located. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has crashed below $70,000, underperforming the already weak crypto market as selling pressure tests price action. Market analyst Crypto Patel noted that he had anticipated this significant drop, citing BTC’s fragile price structure and persistent bearish factors in recent weeks. Now, the expert is sharing new insights on the latest price decline, forecasting how far the ongoing correction might go and what could come next for the leading cryptocurrency. Analyst Predicts More Declines Ahead For Bitcoin Crypto market analyst Crypto Patel on X is predicting further declines for Bitcoin, identifying $50,000 as a potential bottom for this cycle. In what he called a “Bitcoin Profit Update,” Patel highlighted that he had accurately forecasted the recent 19% crash in Bitcoin in his earlier posts. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Is Crashing And What To Expect Next Previously, the analyst had warned that Bitcoin’s previous $80,000 level represented strong resistance, coupled with a fair value gap (FVG). He predicted that from its prior price of around $82,800, Bitcoin would likely drop to $68,000. Despite criticism from some market watchers, Patel remained firm and closely monitored the market. His forecast proved largely accurate, as BTC recently fell more than 19%, reaching $67,000. He attributed the move to a Bitcoin liquidity grab, followed by activity around the FVG and a bearish order block around the $89,000 level. Looking ahead, Crypto Patel noted Bitcoin has formed a lower high around $82,800, a move he had been waiting to confirm. He also highlighted that stop losses have moved lower, from $98,000 to $82,900. The analyst has marked the $82,800 region as the current critical change of character (ChoCH) trigger, signaling that traders should watch this level closely for potential market shifts.  According to Crypto Patel, only a high-volume, high-timeframe close above $82,800 could flip Bitcoin back to bullish territory. Without it, he expects another significant decline.  BTC’s Downside Targets Point To $40,000 Crash In a recent X post, Crypto Patel reiterated that his bias toward Bitcoin remains bearish, expecting the cryptocurrency to crash to much lower levels. He acknowledged the possibility of a short-term relief bounce toward $75,000, but emphasized that this would likely be temporary. Following this projected rebound, the analyst expects BTC to drop to its next lower low target near $50,000 later this year. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bearish Flag Goes Up As Expert Analyst Predicts A Massive Crash To $44,000 Patel marks a break of structure (BOS) level around $59,800 on his chart as the key trigger that could open the path to the $50,000 plunge. He also noted that if bearish momentum persists, Bitcoin could face an even steeper decline, potentially dipping into the $40,000 – $45,000 range. Featured image from Geety Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto analyst Blade has pointed to a Bitcoin trend that could signal when the leading crypto could find a bottom in this bear market cycle. The analyst also suggested that BTC could rally to as high as $400,000 in the next bull market.  Bitcoin Trend Which Points To When BTC Could Bottom In an X post, Blade noted that every BTC cycle has ended the same way, with the trendline on the monthly chart breaking and support getting lost. He noted that when this happens, market participants call for a deeper crash, but that is when Bitcoin finds a bottom, just as it has for 15 years.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Buy Zone That Previously Led To A 660% And 1,700% Rally The analyst also mentioned that when Bitcoin finds a bottom, it builds a base and then starts the next leg higher. He remarked that 2026 is starting to look familiar, signaling that a bullish reversal was on the horizon. His accompanying chart showed that BTC could rally to a new high of around $400,000 in this next bull run. The chart also signaled that this target could be reached by 2030.  In another X post, Blade said that Bitcoin is getting ready for the final leg. This came as he noted that BTC has been making lower highs for almost a year and, as a result, most people assume the bull run is over. However, he pointed out that the leading crypto remains within the same structure, citing a Megaphone Bottom pattern. The analyst added that point 4 may already be in and that point 5 is now the only target.  His accompanying chart showed that point 4 is the bottom, with the possibility that Bitcoin may have bottomed at the February low of $60,000. With this, the leading crypto may now be targeting a rally to point 5 at around $160,000, which would mark a new all-time high for BTC.  A Drop To The Mid $60,000 Range Could Still Be On The Cards In an X post, crypto analyst Colin signaled that Bitcoin could drop to the mid $60,000 range. He pointed to a Head-and-Shoulders (H&S) top pattern, which he noted is currently retesting the neckline where it broke down from. The analyst added that a rejection from that level would be a strong confirmation of the top pattern.  Related Reading: Analyst Compares This Bitcoin Bear Market To Previous Cycles To Show What’s Coming Next Colin declared that Bitcoin is being forced to make a decision and that it should happen within a day or two. He noted that the target is the mid-$60,000 range because a breakdown would simultaneously be a breakdown of the H&S and the channel. Meanwhile, the analyst also pointed to a bear flag that had formed for BTC.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $73,400, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is showing a monthly momentum signal that has appeared near several major cycle lows, which raises the possibility that the current correction is entering its final stage.  The setup is based on the monthly logarithmic MACD histogram, where previous Bitcoin bottoms formed only when the red bars began fading for at least two straight months. The same signal may now be forming again, but there is one important catch. Bitcoin MACD Repeating Bottom Pattern The technical outlook in question is based on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart, but May has not closed yet, and Bitcoin is still trading in a fragile zone below $76,000 after failing to hold above the $80,000 region, which it broke above earlier in the month. Technical analysis done by crypto analyst Washigorira focuses on a simple but historically significant feature that involves two consecutive lighter red bars on Bitcoin’s monthly logarithmic MACD histogram. In past cycles, the darker red histogram bars showed expanding bearish momentum, while the lighter red bars showed that the downside pressure was beginning to weaken. This same pattern appeared around previous Bitcoin bottoming phases. The Bitcoin monthly candlestick chart, shown below, points to similar monthly MACD transitions in 2012, the 2015 bear market bottom, the 2019 cycle reset, and the late 2022 to early 2023 recovery phase. In each case, Bitcoin did not immediately explode higher the moment the first lighter red bar appeared, but the signal showed that sellers were losing control on the monthly timeframe. The May Close Is The Real Signal The same configuration now appears to be forming again. Bitcoin’s monthly MACD histogram turned deep red in September 2025, but April 2026 delivered the first lighter red bar since that flip, indicating that bearish momentum had started to ease.  May is in progress and has not yet printed its final reading. If the month closes with a second consecutive lighter bar, the pattern will have repeated again, and Bitcoin’s bottom may already be in.  “If history rhymes, the worst of the downside may already be behind us,” WashiGorira noted. On the other hand, a weak close that creates a deep red histogram again would delay the signal and keep the bear case alive. Bitcoin’s short-term price action is stuck between relief and weakness, and it is currently unclear how May will close. The cryptocurrency has held above the lower panic levels at $74,000 for now, but it has struggled to reclaim the $80,000 zone in May. Bitcoin is currently struggling with outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs and low spot demand on crypto exchanges. None of this necessarily breaks the technical histogram pattern WashiGorira is tracking. The bearish reading is that the pattern could still leave room for one final crash before a bottom is confirmed. Some technical analysts have warned that the Bitcoin price could still break below $50,000. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is experiencing a steady decline, as prices dipped below $60,000 in the past week. The leading cryptocurrency has struggled to sustain upside momentum after multiple rejections at the $82,000 price level over the last month. Meanwhile, analysts remain divided between the potential of a resurgence and the possibility of another extended correction. Market expert Leshka.eth, with X username Leshka.eth, has aligned with the pessimists, sharing a recent analysis projecting a 41% decline in Bitcoin’s price. Related Reading: Glassnode Says Bitcoin Options Traders Are Still Positioned For Trouble 26 EMA Rejection Confirms Brewing Selling Pressure In an X post on May 22, Leshka.eth shares a bearish price projection for Bitcoin, anchored in the formation of a Head & Shoulders pattern, a negative chart formation that signals a potential reversal of an existing trend, typically from bullish to bearish. It is characterized by three peaks, with the middle peak, i.e., the head, higher than the two surrounding peaks, called the shoulders, while a neckline drawn across the lows between these peaks acts as a key support level. According to Leshka.eth, the forming H&S pattern on the BTC weekly chart indicates an incoming reversal of the price gains accumulated all through 2024 and 2025. The analyst notes that the chart pattern has recorded two key developments, beginning with a retest of the $68,000 neckline, market intentions to reevaluate this region as a key area for further downside pressure. Furthermore, the Bitcoin price recorded a rebound that was firmly rejected at the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA), indicating that upward momentum is weakening at this dynamic level and adding further weight to the bearish outlook implied by the pattern. Meanwhile, the right shoulder failed to reach the same height as the left shoulder, suggesting a gradual buildup of selling pressure. All these events point to an impending validation of the H&S formation, which is expected to trigger a major downswing. In this case, Lesksha.eth predicts Bitcoin would crash to around $44,000 in a measured move, aligning with the next significant support below the neckline. While not explicitly stated by the analyst, such a price move could mark the anticipated cycle bottom, needing to kickstart the next market bull run. Related Reading: Kevin Warsh’s Fed Era Could Change Bitcoin Forever – Here’s The First Signal To Watch Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $75,484, reflecting a 2.66% decline in the past day. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is up 2.65% to $27.65 billion. Featured image from HeroScreen, chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin (BTC) is trapped in its new consolidation band, holding between about $76,000 and $78,500. That range has now become the market’s near-term battlefield, with BTC roughly 38% below its all-time highs.  While this sideways action may appear stable, a new CryptoQuant report argues that miners themselves don’t yet believe the market has fully reached a bottom. No Panic, Still Cautious The report points to a key indicator: the decline in Binance Pool Miner Reserve data. Since Binance Pool accounts for a large portion of the global hash rate, its behavior is often treated as a useful proxy for broader miner sentiment.  In this case, falling reserves suggest that Bitcoin miners within the pool are continuing to trim what they hold in reserve. Typically, reserve reduction can reflect ongoing operational selling pressure, meaning miners are still supplying BTC to the market rather than stepping back completely. Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Breaks New All-Time High—Surges Past $62 As Momentum Spikes At the same time, the report adds an important nuance through another metric: the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) staying in negative territory. That detail matters because it implies miners are not selling aggressively in a way that resembles historical panic behavior.  In other words, the Bitcoin selling activity they’re showing appears more tied to necessity than to a full-scale rush to get out. CryptoQuant frames this as a reason the risk of an abrupt, catastrophic price dump remains relatively low for now. The Puell Multiple is also cited as supporting the same overall interpretation. CryptoQuant notes that the Puell Multiple remaining below 1 indicates miner revenues are still weak and under pressure compared with historical baselines.  Practically, that means miners are operating in a stressed environment, but they are not necessarily accumulating aggressively because Bitcoin still hasn’t delivered the kind of bullish breakout that would typically encourage stronger positioning.  Instead, miners look like they’re in a wait-and-watch mode. CryptoQuant says this kind of behavior is often observed near bottom formations, even if it doesn’t confirm one has fully formed yet. Bitcoin Price Outlook ‘Mixed’ Looking at what this means for price, the picture is mixed. The drop in miner reserves implies some BTC supply is still moving into the market. However, because the MPI remains weak (but not in a “panic selling” pattern), CryptoQuant suggests the resulting selling pressure may not be large enough to trigger a sudden Bitcoin collapse.  Related Reading: Circle’s Next Step: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Integration As The Catalyst For Real Supply-Share Gain That aligns with the current chart structure, which continues to suggest sideways consolidation for a while longer. CryptoQuant also brings in an additional perspective from a separate report: whales reportedly bought near $78K and are now distributing in the $77K–$81K area.  At the same time, exchange reserves are described as being at a monthly high, which is another sign that selling pressure is elevated. In that context, CryptoQuant’s implication is straightforward—if Bitcoin breaks down again and loses $76K, selling pressure could intensify quickly. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $77,763, having recorded a decline of almost 5% after failing to break above and hold $83,000 during last week’s rally.  Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s price performance in the last week saw a slowdown to the asset’s relief rally that began in early April. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the market price declined by 1.45% in a range-bound week, during which bulls failed to overcome a key resistance level at $82,000. Notably, the current market status has led to polarized analysis: some analysts view this opposition as a pause in a recovering market, while others are more pessimistic, predicting another major downswing, perhaps to the actual market bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cannot Clear $82K – Analyst Explains How Traders Are Using Every Rally to Exit Bitcoin’s Fate In Another Potential Correction In an X post on May 15, pseudonymous seasoned analyst Titan of Crypto (@washigorira) shares an insight into Bitcoin’s market direction using the Bitcoin Power Law model V2.0, i.e., a long-term pricing model that suggests BTC’s price follows a predictable growth trend when plotted on a logarithmic scale. As seen below, the leading cryptocurrency has maintained a consistent trajectory within the model’s upper and lower boundaries throughout its history, with every major market bottom holding above the lower green support band. Amid dominant speculation that the recent rally could be a bull trap, the Bitcoin Power Law Model suggests that, in the event of a broader market crash, BTC’s worst-case price floor currently stands around $42,800.   In this case, a negative turnout could lead to a 50% decline from current market levels.  However, Titan of Crypto shares a personal opinion backing Bitcoin to maintain its current level and resume its price rally. The analyst explains that Bitcoin’s current market structure closely resembles the 2018–2019 cycle, during which the price successfully defended the first support band before staging a significant bullish breakout. If the maiden cryptocurrency follows the same trajectory, Bitcoin’s current uptrend could surpass the present all-time high to reach a new peak above $200,000, around the middle price band of the Bitcoin Power Law Model. However, these predictions remain subject to several factors, including global macro policy, institutional adoption, and regulation development, all of which are key to shaping overall market sentiment. Related Reading: Dogecoin Recovery Push Continues, But Bears Still Threaten One Final Drop Bitcoin Price Overview At press time, Bitcoin trades at $78,361, down 2.72% over the last day. As Bitcoin’s momentum continues to decline in May, the monthly price chart now reports a 4.50% gain. To sustain its current uptrend, BTC must break above the sturdy $82,000 price barrier, which could pave the way for a move toward the next major resistance at $88,000. On the downside, bulls must defend the crucial $78,000 support level, as a breakdown below this level could close out the present range-bound movement with a downswing.  Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

Popular market pundit Michaël van de Poppe has stated that Bitcoin has already recorded its cycle bottom. The premier cryptocurrency is currently in a sustained uptrend that began in early April. During this time, Bitcoin’s price has surged from around $67,500 to a recent peak of around $80,000, culminating in an approximate net gain of 20%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drops To 2 Cents! Revolut Users Report Massive BTC Price Glitch 50-Week MA Indicator Represents Pivotal Encounter For Bitcoin Bulls In line with his bullish outlook, van de Poppe has highlighted two crucial price barriers that lie ahead in this postulated market recovery, supported by a historical pattern that transcends market cycles. Using data from 2017 to 2024, the seasoned analyst explains that the first rally in any bull cycle often encounters pivotal resistance at the last significant support level and/or the 50-Week Moving Average (MA). Going by this historical data, the immediate resistance level for Bitcoin lies between $86,000 and $88,000, a price zone that had served as the major support region from November to January, prior to the heavy market sell-off that closed out January. However, the more significant resistance level sits higher. As the name implies, the 50-Week Moving Average (MA) is a long-term technical indicator that tracks the average closing price of an asset over the past 50 weeks to identify the broader market trend. It is often used to spot major resistance or support levels and to confirm bullish and bearish market momentum. Van de Poppe’s Bitcoin analysis reveals that the 50-Week MA has consistently acted as a major flip zone during Bitcoin bull markets once it is below the 200-week moving average, which serves as a critical long-term support level. As seen in the previous cycle, this crossover turns the 50-week MA into a strong support level, paving the way for an extended price rally. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Biggest Bitcoin Bull Trap Of The Cycle, Calls Out 50% Crash To $42,000 Altcoin Rally, Market Retrace – Bull Run Bears Multi-Phases According to van de Poppe, there is a strong possibility that Bitcoin consolidates around the highlighted resistance zones for a few weeks. During this time, the analyst predicts that altcoins could attract capital inflows and register a significant rally, presenting an early opportunity to recoup losses from the bear market or compound gains for new market entrants. However, van de Poppe also warns that Bitcoin could retest the $70,000-$75,000 range before resuming its bull rally. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $80,900, up 1.02% over the past day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down 44.29% to $19.29 billion. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview

Crypto analyst Tice has pointed to a signal that has predicted every Bitcoin bottom in each bear cycle. Based on this, the analyst suggested that the flagship crypto may again be forming a bottom just as the price looks to break above the psychological $80,000 level.  The Signal That Has Predicted Every Bitcoin Bottom Is Again Aligning In an X post, Tice said that the signal that has called every Bitcoin bottom in history has triggered again. He noted that in the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear cycles, BTC was in a bear cycle for around 14 months before forming a bottom, with a price explosion following. Now, this same pattern may be playing out again with BTC looking to form a bottom.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Exactly When To Sell Bitcoin For The Most Return Tice stated that risk has been repriced, leverage has been cleared, and sentiment has been washed out. He added that time alignment is a condition, not a confirmation. Right now, time, structure, and positioning are said to be all aligning. He suggested that now was a good time to invest in Bitcoin with the “window” open and that asymmetric opportunities like this don’t wait.   In another X post, the analyst reiterated that a Bitcoin bottom was forming. He alluded to the median Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), which he noted has hit the same signal as every major bottom in BTC history. Tice added that a multi-year bull market has always followed whenever this signal appears, as it has now.  Therefore, he remarked that if history rhymes even loosely, then two to three years of bull market for BTC may be on the horizon. He added that the bear market that felt different on the way down is about to feel very familiar on the way up.  BTC Approaching A Make-or-Break Level Crypto analyst Colin stated that Bitcoin is nearing an interesting spot on the chart, which is the intersection of two trend lines and one horizontal resistance level. Based on this, he gave a 50% chance of BTC forming a local top around this intersection. However, if it breaks above the channel, the analyst predicts it could move much higher and reach a local top around the $84,000 to $86,000 zone.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Is Coming: Pundit Says It’s Time To Sell All Your BTC Colin noted that the zone is where the most immediate and significant horizontal resistance can be found from the previous consolidation range. Meanwhile, the analyst doesn’t believe Bitcoin is back in a bull run, despite the leading crypto forming new highs since its February 6 low of around $60,000. BTC has also notably rallied amid the U.S.-Iran war.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $79.900, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

After weeks of renewed optimism, many in the Bitcoin market now believe the tide could finally be turning. While the premier cryptocurrency’s price action has been steadily turning around since the start of April, the current on-chain structure suggests expectations might be overestimated. According to an on-chain analyst, BTC’s recovery process is unlikely to occur in a few weeks. Bitcoin Bottom Could Take Six Months To Form: Analyst In a May 2nd post on the X platform, crypto pundit Axel Adler Jr. shared an on-chain insight into the recovery path of Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. This on-chain observation is based on an adjusted model of the Realized Price Bands metric that reflects the average cost basis of different market participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be One Breakout Away From A Structural Shift: Analysts The Adjusted Realized Price Bands model is calibrated to only account for Bitcoin’s live circulating supply, filtering the effect of the dormant — albeit significant — portion of the coin’s total supply. This metric shows when significant holders, who are likely to make market decisions, are at a loss or near a loss, signaling historical accumulation zones. Highlighting data from CryptoQuant, Adler Jr. revealed that the lower bound of the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model, known as the “RP Alive,” is now below $59,000. According to the on-chain analyst, this price zone could mark the start of a Bitcoin bottom formation, suggesting the market leader might still have one more leg down. Adler Jr., however, noted that Bitcoin’s price being near the bottom doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, as bottom formation isn’t a “one or two week process.” The analyst postulated that the base case for the bottom formation is around six months. BTC Bottom Formation Depends On Return Of Market Demand Adler Jr. further explained the rationale for the six-month base case conclusion, noting that demand remains the core driver of bottom formations. The on-chain analyst then mentioned that real demand forms only over the long term, not on emotion or local bounces. In essence, the on-chain analyst believes the bottom formation will only begin when the investors start to “see forward-looking value again,” and genuine spot demand returns to the market. Unfortunately, recent on-chain data shows that BTC’s apparent demand remains weak. As of this writing, the price of BTC is around $78,458, with no significant movement in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up nearly 2% on the weekly timeframe. Related Reading: Dogecoin Inverted Scale Shows A Sharp Drop, But Something Is Interesting About This Chart Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) may be starting to shake off the worst part of the downturn that began in October last year, according to new research from Grayscale. The firm points to Feb. 5—when BTC traded around $63,000—as a “durable” market bottom.  Potential Start Of A New Bitcoin Bull Market In Grayscale’s view, the rebound since that low has been meaningful. The firm’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, said the BTC price bottomed at roughly $63,000 and has since climbed more than 20%, reaching about $76,000.  That level, he noted, is slightly above the average cost basis for recent buyers, which matters because it can reduce the incentive to sell after a drop. In other words, if many holders are no longer underwater, selling pressure may ease at a time when buyers are trying to regain control. Related Reading: A Stark XRP Price Call: Why One Analyst Says It Could Be Under $1 By 2031 For Bitcoin transacted over the past one to three months, Grayscale says the realized price is about $74,000. That implies many newer buyers are already back near break-even.  If BTC continues rising in the days ahead, more recent participants could shift into positive profit and loss, which Grayscale treats as a potential early sign of a bull-market transition. In that framework, the Feb. 5 low is not just a statistical low—it’s presented as the point where the market may have stabilized enough to start a new upward phase. $78,000 Still Holds The Key Adding to the bullish case, Bitcoin whales reportedly added about 45,000 BTC last week, the fastest weekly accumulation pace since July 2025. Long-term holders, meanwhile, have reportedly accumulated more than 1 million BTC over the past three months. Glassnode data also indicates that upward momentum has cooled somewhat. Even so, it still points to strong buyer interest, which could help cushion the market and reduce the odds of a sharp slide. At the same time, trading activity on centralized exchanges has risen, suggesting ongoing participation rather than a sudden exit. In the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector, Glassnode points to several indicators improving, including an increase in the MVRV ratio alongside netflow. These signals are described as consistent with improved profitability expectations and stronger investor interest.  Related Reading: AAVE Price Plummets By 26%: $9 Billion Net Outflows Traced To Kelp DAO Hack Combined with higher overall trading activity, the picture is presented as a cautiously optimistic shift in sentiment, especially for investors engaging with Bitcoin through regulated channels and traditional custody. Even with these supportive signs, Bitcoin isn’t free of near-term challenges. BTC has slightly retraced toward the $75,800 area at the time of writing, and it remains unclear whether it can break the closest resistance level near $78,000.  That price point has capped stronger upside moves toward $80,000 since Jan. 30. The overall takeaway is that the market may be setting up for a larger move, but the next step likely depends on whether resistance can be cleared. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to reclaim a key resistance area, an analyst has suggested that the end of BTC’s two-month consolidation could be weeks away, potentially opening “generational opportunities” before the next bull run. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Could Keep Crashing This Week Bitcoin Consolidation’s End May Be Weeks Away On Monday, Bitcoin jumped 5% from Sunday’s lows to a key area for the first time in April. Notably, the flagship cryptocurrency has been trading between $62,000-$74,000 over the past two months but has not reached the upper end of its range since late March. Now, BTC is retesting the $69,000-$70,000 resistance area, which could set the stage for a crucial short-term move. Market observer Ted Pillows stated that if the cryptocurrency reclaims this zone, a rally towards $72,000-$74,000 could happen. On the contrary, a rejection would likely see Bitcoin drop to the $65,000-$66,000 support zone, where price has held over the past month. In an X analysis, Ali Martinez noted that the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows the flagship cryptocurrency is “stuck in a ‘No-Trade Zone.’” Per the post, “the URPD shows exactly where every BTC last moved,” with a massive cluster of holders between $70,685-$63,111. “As long as we trade here, millions of holders are incentivized to defend their ‘buy-in,’ creating a natural floor,” he added. Nonetheless, analyst Max Crypto affirmed that BTC’s “decision time is very close,” suggesting that it could see its next big move unfold in the upcoming weeks, based on its previous price action. As he explained, the leading crypto has shown the same performance over the past year, consolidating for 8-15 weeks before the last four big moves. This time, Bitcoin has been moving sideways for 8 weeks, entering its 9th consolidation week on Monday. Based on its previous performance, the market watcher considers that “BTC’s next big move will most likely happen by mid-April, irrespective of US-Iran talks, and will probably be to the downside.” Where Is BTC’s Final Support Located? In his X post, Martinez also analyzed multiple patterns and on-chain metrics to map out BTC’s high-probability accumulation zones and potential bottom. Notably, he highlighted that Bitcoin is approaching its most significant support floor since 2017: an ascending trendline that has guarded its price for nine years, and every retest has preceded a parabolic expansion. This trendline currently sits around the $60,000 and $56,000 levels and could be “the potential launchpad for the next major bull cycle” if it holds. In addition, he outlined three metrics that could mark the “line in the sand” and the best buying opportunities for BTC: the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), the MVRV pricing bands, and the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s 85% Crash Era Is Over: ‘It’s Now A Proven Technology’, Cathie Wood Says The CVDD, which “tracks when ‘Old Hands’ pass BTC to new buyers, creating a structural foundation for the entire market,” is currently around $47,960. Meanwhile, the MVRV 0.8 Band, located around $43,647, has historically marked the bottom and “the exact zone where BTC sellers exhaust themselves and the ‘Strong Hands’ take over the supply.” Lastly, Martinez noted that the LTH Realized Price, currently at $49,387, is often the final support. However, he added that if the price dips below this level, “it signals a final capitulation phase, especially if the -0.2 Std Dev band at $36,657 is hit” at what he deemed “Generational Buy” levels. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) holds the crucial $65,000 to $66,000 area, Ark Invest CEO and CIO Cathie Wood has discussed the flagship crypto’s current downturn, affirming that the era of severe pullbacks is over. Related Reading: $285M Bug Or Human Error? Solana-Based Drift Protocol Suffers Largest Exploit Of 2026 50% Bitcoin Correction Could Be A ‘Real Victory’ In a recent interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood affirmed that Bitcoin has matured over the last few years, citing broader adoption and growing institutional demand for the flagship crypto. Wood said that Bitcoin is a “proven technology” and a “proven monetary system,” adding that the industry is “seeing now is the institutionalization of this new asset class that has had a very low correlation with other asset classes.” Therefore, “the 85%, 95% collapses associated with a very new technology, that’s done.” To the CEO, the ongoing market correction, which has reduced Bitcoin’s value by nearly half from its October peak, could be viewed as a “real victory” rather than a sign of weakness for the Bitcoin community, as it would mark a significant decline from its historical crashes during previous bear markets. Last year, Wood trimmed her Bitcoin prediction for 2030 from $1.5 million to $1.2 million. However, she has reiterated her view that Bitcoin will serve as a store of value and global settlement system. She previously asserted that growing institutional adoption will be a powerful driver for long-term value for the flagship crypto, adding that it has only begun. “Institutions really have just dipped their toes into this space. We have just started, so we have a long way to go,” she stated. Analysts Say BTC Bottom Is Much Lower Despite Wood’s outlook, other market analysts have forecasted much lower targets for BTC’s bottom. Recently, Bloomberg senior strategist Mike McGlone suggested that a “bursting crypto bubble” scenario is looming for the leading cryptocurrency. As reported by NewsBTC, McGlone affirmed that Bitcoin could drop as low as $10,000 this year, noting that this level was a common trading price before 2020-2021 and “the first-born crypto’s most traded price since 2017.” Market watcher Crypto Jelle recently pointed out that the cryptocurrency’s bear market lows have historically formed below the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels, which could place BTC’s bottom below the $57,000 area. Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez said that BTC’s final correction before the next bull run could send the price 40%-50% down toward the $30,000-$40,000 area, based on its historical performance. The analyst explained that the crossover between BTC’s 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) has historically signaled the bottom of every major cycle over the past twelve years. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Break Four-Month Negative Streak With $1.32B Inflows While ETH, XRP Funds Bleed As he detailed, the crossover has consistently marked the start of the final leg down before the next bull market, with the price declining another 50% when the 50- and 200-SMAs crossed in previous cycles. Notably, Bitcoin has seen a 52% correction from its October 2025 peak, and the SMAs crossed over on February 27, which could suggest that another major correction is due, if history repeats. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Market expert Ali Martinez recently revealed on X (formerly Twitter) what he describes as “the secret to every major Bitcoin bull run since 2011,” saying October could offer one of the best entry points ahead of the next bull market.  Martinez shared an on‑chain fractal breakdown that points to a potential “final discount” in October of this year, where investors might find optimal buying opportunities before the next sustained uptrend. Bitcoin Could Bottom At $41,000-$45,000 In his social media post, Martinez suggests that Bitcoin is still operating within a four‑year rhythm that breaks down into a sequence of accumulation, markup, distribution, and a bear phase.  Within that larger cycle, he highlights two shorter subcycles and asserts the market is now moving into what he describes as the “final discount” period. Using that framework, Martinez puts a likely “golden entry” window between October 6 and October 16, 2026. Related Reading: Ethereum Bottom Signal? Analyst Maps Out Road To $10,000 Beyond timing, Martinez offered specific price bands for ideal buying opportunities. He identified entry points in the $41,500 to $45,000 range, which would represent declines of roughly 41% and 36%, respectively, from current trading levels of around $70,800. October Launchpad  Those potential retracements in the coming months imply that Bitcoin may still have substantial downside before the October window, according to his reading of past cycles. Related Reading: Dogecoin Could 200% Rally If This Floor Holds, Analyst Says However, Martinez framed the scenario as an actionable pattern rather than mere speculation: if the fractal holds, the October interval could serve as the launchpad that begins a fresh four‑year cycle and sets the stage for the next vertical price move.   The expert concluded his Monday social media post by saying the “countdown to the next Bitcoin vertical move has begun.” Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

As Bitcoin (BTC) seeks to solidify its position around $71,000, the cryptocurrency faces a challenge from the $74,000 resistance level that has so far prevented a decisive breakout.  However, recent insights from Bloomberg indicate that a collection of indicators, historically associated with the conclusion of downward trends, suggest the current sell-off may be reaching its final phase. Bitcoin Recovery In Sight?  Brett Munster of Blockforce Capital said that one of these indicators has already entered a range that has frequently preceded past lows. Meanwhile, two others are indicating figures between $54,000 and $58,000, which is lower than the current price range of between $65,000 and $73,000 that was set during the month.  Although a definitive price floor is not guaranteed, Munster asserts that “the majority of the drawdown appears to be behind us,” suggesting that a market turnaround could potentially materialize by mid-year.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Surges 54% On Average Post-US Midterm Elections, Binance One of the critical indicators currently highlighting Bitcoin’s potential for recovery is the MVRV Z-Score. This measure signals when Bitcoin is trading above or below its on-chain cost basis.  When this score dips below 0.4, it typically indicates that the cryptocurrency is undervalued. Presently, the score is around 0.38, indicating that Bitcoin may indeed be undervalued, although other metrics have not yet confirmed this trend. Potential Upside Emerges The realized price of Bitcoin—the average price at which it has last moved on-chain—currently hovers near $54,000, while the 200-week moving average (MA), which has historically marked important support levels, is positioned around $58,000.  Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Under The Lens: These 3 Metrics Point To Severe Undervaluation Moreover, the pattern of diminishing peak-to-trough drawdowns suggests a potential bottom could lie between $45,000 and $55,000. Collectively, these indicators define what Munster terms “a high-probability accumulation zone” ranging from approximately $45,000 to $60,000. Although pinpointing an exact market bottom is inherently uncertain and bear markets can last longer than anticipated, Munster believes that Bitcoin presently offers a more favorable risk-reward profile with greater upside potential.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Historically, bitcoin bear markets have lasted 12-13 months, suggesting a potential downturn until late 2026 if priced in USD.

After closing the week below a crucial support level, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $65,000 support for the first time since the early February crash, reaching a two-week low of $64,152. Amid this performance, some analysts have warned that the flagship crypto could be on the “cusp of bearish acceleration,” warning that another major crash could be around the corner. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mirrors Software Stocks More Than Any Other Market — Here’s Why Bitcoin Loses The 200-Week EMA On Monday, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin produced a “historically pivotal” development after closing last week below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently sits “at the center of a major confluence zone.” Notably, the 200-week EMA aligns with BTC’s Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range highs, located between $66,000-$71,000. Meanwhile, the Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range lows, around the $58,000-$60,000 levels, define the broader structure of BTC’s current range. Over the past three weeks, the cryptocurrency attempted to develop a demand region around this area, which was previously a major supply area. However, this level hasn’t historically been a structurally reliable support for BTC’s price, the analyst asserted, noting that it has previously acted as a 10-month resistance. “In the current structure, we have seen three consecutive weeks of elevated sell-side volume in this region, with limited meaningful buy-side response,” he explained. Per the post, this imbalance has led to a weekly close below the 200-week EMA, losing it as support in this timeframe. This suggests that a “continuation of Bearish Acceleration into its second wave” could follow soon. The analyst cautioned that now that price has closed the week below this critical level, there is a “strong probability that Bitcoin presses back toward the underside of that EMA to attempt turning it into new resistance.” If the underside retest holds, the structure would shift from defending the support to confirming the resistance at this level. He warned that if that level begins to act as resistance, downside continuation will become increasingly probable. BTC’s Bottom Targets $30,000 Rekt Capital also noted that BTC’s recent performance aligns closely with its price action in prior cycles. As he detailed, in 2018 and 2022, a weekly close below the 200-week EMA acted as a structural trigger to the second wave of bearish acceleration. “Bitcoin would attempt to reclaim the level, turn it into resistance, and then dissipate lower. That pattern is now attempting to replicate itself,” he asserted. Similarly, Ali Martinez pointed to the cryptocurrency’s historical performance, but on the three-day chart, affirming that this has been one of BTC’s key timeframes from a macro perspective. According to Martinez’s post, market observers must watch the upcoming interaction of the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), as the crossover between these two indicators on the three-day timeframe has historically preceded the final leg down of the bear market. Bitcoin dropped around 50%-72% from its 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops before its death crosses took place in late 2014 and 2018, and mid 2022. Following the 50-day and 200-day SMAs crossovers, the flagship crypto experienced another 45%-52% decline. Related Reading: Investors In Trump Family Memecoins Record $4.3 Billion In Losses As Tokens Sink Now, BTC has fallen more than 52% from its October 2025 peak and is approaching a potential death cross on the three-day chart by the end of February. “If history repeats — even partially — this could signal the beginning of the final leg down of this cycle,” the analyst warned. Based on this, Martinez predicted that another 30%-50% correction from current levels could follow, placing the cryptocurrency’s target near the $30,000-$40,000 supports. “If the cross confirms, it becomes a level to take very seriously,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

With Bitcoin (BTC) hovering around 50% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached last October, investors are increasingly questioning when the cryptocurrency might finally establish its next bottom.  According to market expert and technical analyst Altcoin Sherpa, the current bear phase is unlikely to drag on for another full year. In his view, Bitcoin could complete its downturn in less than 365 days and potentially resume its broader uptrend before year-end. Has Bitcoin Bottomed?  In a recent analysis published on X, Sherpa clarified that his timeline refers specifically to the move from peak to bottom and does not include the accumulation period that typically follows.  Accumulation, he explained, is characterized by choppy, sideways price action with relatively low volatility and subdued trading volume. Historically, this phase has lasted anywhere from two to four months. Related Reading: Can XRP Hold Above $1? Token Tumbles 11% as Breakdown Fuels Crash Concerns Looking back at previous cycles, Sherpa notes a fairly consistent rhythm. Bitcoin experienced a powerful rally in 2017 and again in 2021, each followed by a steep year-long decline in 2018 and 2022.  After those major drawdowns came an extended stretch of accumulation, as seen in 2019 and 2020. From the top in 2017 to the bottom in 2018, and similarly from 2021 to 2022, it took about one year for Bitcoin to complete its downward move.  Another common feature of past bear markets, he argues, has been a final capitulation event — a sharp, dramatic sell-off that effectively marks the end of the downtrend.  Sherpa believes a capitulation may have already occurred in 2026, pointing to Bitcoin’s drop from $100,000 to $60,000 as a potential final flush. If that interpretation is correct, the market could already be in the early stages of accumulation. Accumulation Could Already Be Underway  Because the 2024 and 2025 rallies were structurally different, Sherpa believes the decline will also differ. While the last two bear markets each lasted about a year from peak to bottom and saw drawdowns of approximately 85% and 75%, respectively, he does not expect the current downturn to mirror that pattern exactly. One reason, he says, is the growing role of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Although ETF products can and do decline along with the broader market, they have changed the structure of capital flows.  He also points to the lengthy consolidation between $50,000 and $70,000, where Bitcoin traded for roughly eight months. From a technical analysis perspective, such extended trading ranges often act as strong support zones during pullbacks.  Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Gives Back Gains, Support Level Under Spotlight As for timing, broader macroeconomic forces — including equities, metals, overall risk appetite and even developments in artificial intelligence — remain critical variables. Still, Sherpa does not think BTC needs another seven months of steady decline to form a bottom. If the recent $100,000 to $60,000 slide was indeed the final Bitcoin price capitulation, then accumulation may already be underway. Historically, that phase has lasted between two and four months, or roughly 60 to 120 days. However, he acknowledges one key risk to his outlook: the possibility that a final capitulation has not yet occurred. If another sell-off emerges — for example, a drop from $75,000 toward $50,000— he would interpret that as the definitive bottoming event. In that scenario, accumulation would likely follow for several months. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows almost half of all Bitcoin is currently underwater, representing overhead supply that might need to be absorbed before a price bottom. Around 9.31 Million Bitcoin Is Now Being Held At A Loss In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about why a true Bitcoin bottom takes time to form. To illustrate his point, Maartunn has shared a chart for the Bitcoin Supply In Loss, an indicator that measures, as its name suggest, the total amount of the cryptocurrency that’s being held at a net unrealized loss. As is visible in the above graph, the Bticoin Supply In Loss shrunk down to zero as the asset set its new all-time high (ATH) back in October. Since then, however, the metric’s value has sharply expanded as the cryptocurrency has gone through its bearish reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next? Today, the indicator is sitting at 9.31 million BTC, which is the highest that it has been since the 2022 bear market. In terms of supply percentage, this amount is equivalent to 46% of all tokens in circulation. Generally, holders in loss look forward to retests of their cost basis level so that they can exit with their capital back. Currently, there would be a significant amount of such investors. “A large share of holders are waiting to sell at breakeven or a small profit,” noted the analyst. Another on-chain indicator called the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) showcases which levels exactly the underwater hands bought their Bitcoin at. As displayed in the indicator’s chart, the Bitcoin loss supply is particularly clustered between the $80,000 to $95,000 and $105,000 to $120,000 ranges. Given the distance that the current BTC price has to these levels, it’s possible that traders who bought inside the ranges will stay underwater in the near future. Upward moves for the asset would naturally be met with selling pressure from these investors looking to cut their losses. “That overhead supply must be absorbed and redistributed to stronger hands before a durable bottom can emerge,” explained Maartunn. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Heatmap Shows All Major Metrics In The Red During the previous bear market, the Bitcoin Supply In Loss dropped to even lower levels than now and the market observed a long phase of consolidation before this transfer of loss supply to more resolute hands could occur. It now remains to be seen how long the cryptocurrency will take to reach a floor this time around. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken to sideways movement since its recovery from the $60,000 low as its price is still trading around $68,600. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is once again facing notable selling pressure. The market confronts a challenging phase marked by weakening momentum and cautious investor positioning. Recent price action suggests that bullish conviction has softened. Traders are increasingly attentive to liquidity conditions, macro uncertainty, and shifting market sentiment. While volatility is not unusual at this stage of the cycle, the current environment reflects a market searching for direction rather than sustaining a clear upward trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Losses Hit Luna Crash Levels — But Price Context Points To A Different Market Phase A recent CryptoQuant report provides additional context through Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI), a composite metric that integrates valuation, profitability, spending behavior, and sentiment indicators. According to the analysis, BCMI has fallen into the low 0.2 range, a level historically associated more with early bear market phases — such as those seen in 2018 and 2022 — rather than routine mid-cycle corrections. This shift suggests a deeper structural adjustment may be underway. Notably, BCMI was hovering near 0.5 as recently as October, a zone typically interpreted as market equilibrium between bullish and bearish forces. The subsequent decline indicates that this balance has broken down. Whether this signals the start of a prolonged bearish phase or a temporary reset will likely depend on future liquidity conditions, investor demand, and broader macroeconomic developments. BCMI Breakdown Points To Structural Weakness In Bitcoin Market The CryptoQuant report highlights a notable deterioration in Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI), suggesting a shift away from mid-cycle consolidation toward a more defensive market regime. According to the analysis, the mid-cycle equilibrium around the 0.5 level failed to hold, with no meaningful rebound emerging from the 0.3 zone. Instead, the index continued declining directly toward the low 0.2 range without the type of expansion reset typically seen during healthier corrective phases. This pattern differs from past mid-cycle cooling periods and increasingly resembles a transition into a risk-off market environment. Historical comparisons provide additional perspective. Previous cycle bottoms generally formed when BCMI reached approximately 0.10–0.15, notably during 2019 and again in the 2022–2023 bear phase. Current readings remain above those capitulation levels, implying that while Bitcoin may already be operating within a bearish structural framework, full capitulation conditions have not yet materialized. Because BCMI aggregates valuation metrics such as MVRV, profitability indicators like NUPL, spending behavior via SOPR, and broader sentiment measures, its decline into the low 0.2 range reflects shrinking unrealized profits, rising realized losses, deteriorating sentiment, and ongoing valuation compression. Unless the index stabilizes and reclaims the 0.4–0.5 zone, the probability of continued structural weakness remains elevated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Wipes Billions From Recent Buyers: New Whale Cost Basis Falls Toward $90K Bitcoin Tests Long-Term Support After Weekly Breakdown Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects increasing structural pressure following the recent loss of the $70,000 level, a key psychological and technical threshold that had previously acted as support. Price has now retreated toward the mid-$60,000 range, placing BTC below shorter-term trend averages and signaling weakening bullish momentum. This shift suggests the market is transitioning from consolidation toward a more defensive phase. The chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs since the late-cycle peak near the $120,000 region. A pattern often associated with corrective or transitional market environments. Recent declines have been accompanied by elevated trading volume. Typically indicative of distribution or forced deleveraging rather than gradual profit-taking. Such dynamics often increase volatility while complicating sustained recovery attempts. Related Reading: Long-Term Ethereum Holders Expand Positions While Market Faces Pressure: Rare Signal Emerges From a structural perspective, the $60,000–$62,000 zone emerges as a critical support area. This region aligns with prior consolidation phases and high-liquidity trading zones that historically attracted demand. Holding above this level could allow Bitcoin to stabilize and potentially form a base for sideways consolidation. However, a decisive breakdown would raise the probability of deeper retracement scenarios. Bitcoin’s direction remains closely tied to liquidity conditions, institutional flows, and broader macro sentiment influencing risk assets. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered a new bear market after suffering a steep 50% decline from its all‑time high. The leading crypto fell as low as $60,000, marking its weakest level since October 2024 and intensifying debate over how much further prices could slide before the next long‑term bottom is reached. As markets search for direction, crypto market expert NoLimit has shared a detailed framework outlining when and where he believes Bitcoin could ultimately bottom in this cycle.  Rather than focusing solely on price targets, NoLimit argues that time plays an equally important role in identifying major turning points in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Potential Bitcoin Low In Oct–Nov  According to his analysis, past Bitcoin bear markets show a relatively consistent pattern when measured from all‑time highs to cycle lows. Following the first Halving cycle in 2012, Bitcoin reached its bottom after 406 days.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted The second Halving cycle in 2016 saw a bottom after 363 days, while the third cycle following the 2020 Halving bottomed after 376 days. The current cycle, following the 2024 Halving, has not yet completed this process. Based on these historical timeframes, NoLimit believes there is a high statistical likelihood that Bitcoin’s next major capitulation point will occur between October and November 2026.  What NUPL Data Suggests In his analysis, NoLimit also highlighted an institutional‑grade on‑chain indicator known as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL. Historically, when NUPL enters what is referred to as the “blue zone,” Bitcoin has reached generational lows.  Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted XRP’s 600% Rally Forecasts The Bottom And A Target Of $10 This signal successfully identified the bottom during the 2018 bear market, the COVID‑19 crash, and the 2022 market low. According to NoLimit, Bitcoin has not yet entered this zone in the current cycle and remains some distance away from it. Taking all factors into account, NoLimit said he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin trading between $45,000 and $50,000 by the end of 2026. He described that range as his ultimate bottom target. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how large entities drove Bitcoin accumulation during the November-December bottoming phase. Large Entities Accumulated BTC, While Smaller Investors Sold In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the recent Bitcoin investor behavior. “During the November–December bottoming phase, supply accumulation was primarily driven by larger entities, while smaller cohorts were distributing,” noted Glassnode. To showcase the trend, the analytics firm has cited the Accumulation Trend Score, an on-chain indicator that tells us about whether BTC addresses are accumulating or distributing. The indicator uses two factors to calculate its value: the balance changes happening in the wallets of the investors and the size of the wallets themselves. This means that larger entities have a stronger influence on the metric. Related Reading: Chainlink Drops To $12.50, But Largest Whales Are Accumulating When the value of the Accumulation Trend Score is greater than 0.5, it means large entities (or alternatively, a large number of small entities) are accumulating. The closer is the indicator to 1.0, the stronger is this behavior. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold implies that distribution is the dominant behavior among investors. The zero level acts as the extreme point for this side of the scale. The Accumulation Trend Score can also be separately calculated for specific Bitcoin segments to get a more granular view of behavior. Below is the chart shared by Glassnode, doing exactly this for the various BTC investor groups. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score was close to a value of 1.0 for 10,000+ BTC investors during the bottoming period that followed the price crash in November. The investors in this wallet range are often dubbed as “mega whales,” corresponding to the largest of entities on the network. The normal whales, holding coins in the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC range, started accumulating a bit later, as their Accumulation Trend Score turned blue in December. The whales have since maintained net buying, but the mega whales switched to a neutral behavior around mid-December. Interestingly, while the whales have been showing accumulation, the same hasn’t been true for the smaller investor groups. All cohorts carrying less than 1,000 BTC have displayed varying degrees of distribution during the last few weeks, with the 1 to 10 coins group in particular showing a near-perfect selling behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin IFP Hints At Potential Turnaround: What It Means “This divergence appears to be driven in part by exchange-related wallet reshuffling, and also by large holders buying the dip,” explained the analytics firm. It now remains to be seen how long the distribution from smaller Bitcoin entities will continue. BTC Price Bitcoin has been falling since the week started as its price is now trading around $88,900. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to maintain its position below the $90,000 threshold, market sentiment appears to be shifting toward the possibility of a new bear market. Notably, analyst Ali Martinez has drawn comparisons with historical market cycles to forecast Bitcoin’s trajectory.  Bitcoin Market Patterns In a recent social media post, Martinez highlighted a recurring pattern that suggests it typically takes around 1,064 days for Bitcoin to transition from a market bottom to a market top, followed by approximately 364 days from a market peak back to the next bottom. Related Reading: Ethereum Fails To Surpass $3,000: Predictions For The Final Days Of The Year In the first cycle, the market bottomed out in January 2015 and reached its peak in December 2017, exactly 1,064 days later. This was followed by a bear market that lasted 364 days, culminating in the bottom in December 2018.  The second cycle mirrored this pattern: the market bottomed in December 2018 and reached its apex in November 2021, again over a span of 1,064 days. Subsequently, another downturn followed, leading to a bottom in November 2022, when Bitcoin traded around $15,500. Next Bottom At $37,500? Currently, the analyst highlights that the market is in what could be the third cycle, having witnessed a market bottom in November 2022 and a current peak above $126,000 reached back in October.  Applying the historical patterns of these cycles, it suggests that Bitcoin is now within the 364-day correction window, indicating a potential bottom could materialize around October 2026 — approximately 288 days from now. Related Reading: Altcoin Struggles: What The Future Holds And The Potential For A 2026 Revival Examining past bear markets offers additional context for projecting potential downside. The bear market from 2017 to 2018 saw a correction of approximately 84%, while the market decline from 2021 to 2022 experienced a retracement of roughly 77%.  Averaging these two corrections, Martinez suggests an expected retracement of around 80%, positioning Bitcoin’s next market bottom at around $37,500. Currently, the market’s leading cryptocurrency is trading slightly above the $88,290 mark, which is a 30% gap from the current peak.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

An analyst has explained when Bitcoin could possibly reach a bottom, based on the historical pattern followed by its price across cycles. Bitcoin Has Tended To Take 364 Days From Major Tops To Bottoms In a new thread on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed about what history could hint about when Bitcoin might reach a bottom in the current cycle. “Bitcoin $BTC major cycles have followed a surprisingly consistent rhythm, both in timing and depth,” noted Martinez. Related Reading: XRP Retail Turns Fearful Again—A Classic Contrarian Setup? Below is a chart shared by the analyst that highlights some of the similarities that the last few BTC cycles have shared. As is visible in the graph, the quarterly price of Bitcoin has taken roughly 1,064 days to reach the top from the bottom of the previous bear market during the last three cycles. This is naturally assuming that the cryptocurrency’s high above $126,000 was the top for the current cycle. The distance from the top to the next bottom was also similar in the 2017 and 2021 cycles on the cryptocurrency’s quarterly chart, coming at about 364 days. “If this pattern holds, Bitcoin $BTC is now inside that 364-day correction window, which points to a potential bottom around October 2026,” explained Martinez. In the chart, the analyst has also highlighted a possible bottom target for Bitcoin, based on, once again, the pattern from the previous cycles. The 2018 bear market reached its low after a drawdown of 84.22% from the bull market top, while the 2022 bear involved a decline of 77.57%. Martinez has drawn a drawdown of 70% for the current cycle, which would put the price target at the $37,500 level. It now remains to be seen whether this cycle will follow a trajectory anything like the last cycles or if the asset will go a different direction this time around. The chart for the Bitcoin cycles is showcasing the long-term trend of the asset using its quarterly price, but what about the short-term direction? In another X post, the analyst has shared the 4-hour chart for BTC, highlighting a technical analysis (TA) pattern forming on a short scale. As displayed in the above chart, Bitcoin has potentially been following a Parallel Channel on its 4-hour price during the last few weeks. A Parallel Channel appears whenever an asset observes consolidation between two parallel trendlines, with the lower level acting as support and upper one as resistance. Related Reading: Bitcoin Perps Heat Up Again As Leveraged Longs Rise The cryptocurrency retested the lower line of this Parallel Channel last week, which led to a rebound as support held up. The asset has since returned to the middle zone of the pattern, suggesting there isn’t any clear bias in either direction right now. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $87,300, up 0.7% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to regain momentum in the market, failing to surpass its nearest resistance level of $94,000 for over a month. The cryptocurrency is currently trading within a broad range between $85,000 and $93,000, leading to growing concerns about further price corrections in the upcoming months. Amid this uncertainty, market expert NoLimit recently expressed on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that he anticipates Bitcoin could bottom out at around $40,000 sometime in 2026. This forecast implies a significant 54% decline from current levels, which are just above $87,860. A Historical Perspective On Market Cycles NoLimit’s analysis outlines several reasons for this predicted downturn. He points out that Bitcoin has a historical tendency to surprise investors, often when confidence in the market is high. While each price cycle may appear unique on the surface, NoLimit argues that the underlying mechanics remain largely unchanged. He emphasizes the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, noting that it moves within a four-year cycle influenced by liquidity, leverage, and human behavior rather than mere sentiment.  According to him, the market is currently late in this cycle, and Bitcoin has consistently followed a three-step process during past upward movements. Related Reading: XRP Price Forecast: Key Factors That Could Propel It To $3 In Early 2026 First, Bitcoin tends to surge in price following the Halving event. This is typically followed by an influx of maximum leverage and late-stage buyers. Finally, the cycle concludes with a sharp and often chaotic reset before the next significant price expansion occurs. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced steep declines during these resets, such as an approximate 85% drop in 2013-2014, an 84% drop in 2017-2018, and a 77% drop during the 2021-2022 cycle. In each scenario, investors were convinced that the conditions were different, yet the outcomes remained consistent. $40,000 As Foundation For Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run  Considering the current market situation, NoLimit highlights several critical indicators. He notes that Bitcoin has already seen substantial price appreciation, with institutional interest and exchange-trade fund (ETF) approvals now part of the landscape.  He also observes that many traders are over-leveraged, market volatility is compressed, and there exists widespread hope for further price increases. These factors often signal a heightened risk of downside movement in the market. Related Reading: Will Bitcoin Suffer A 20% Decline After Japan’s Rate Hike? Historical Patterns Suggest So A potential drop toward the $40,000 range should not be viewed as an unforeseen disaster, according to NoLimit. He argues that significant price declines have historically preceded major upward movements.  Additionally, this price target aligns well with several technical indicators, including previous resistance levels that have turned into support, long-term moving averages, and the liquidity gap created by ETF approvals.  Such factors suggest that a move toward this region could exhaust forced sellers and provide a solid foundation for recovery. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has gone through a decline recently, a sign that miner revenue has gone down relative to its baseline. Bitcoin Puell Multiple Has Dropped To 0.67 In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Puell Multiple. The “Puell Multiple” refers to a popular on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the daily BTC mining revenue (in USD) and 365-day moving average (MA) of the same. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be At Risk Of A Deeper Bear If This Ratio Compresses, Says Glassnode Miners earn their income through two sources: block subsidy and transaction fees. In the context of the metric, however, only the former part of their revenue is relevant. Block subsidy is a fixed BTC-denominated reward that miners receive when they add the next block to the chain. Usually, it makes up for the dominant and stable part of miner income. When the value of the Puell Multiple is greater than 1, it means that the network validators are earning a higher revenue from block subsidy than the average for the past year. On the other hand, the metric being under the mark implies miners are making less than usual. Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Puell Multiple over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has witnessed a rapid decline recently that has taken its value below the 1 level. This drop in the metric is a result of the bearish price action that the cryptocurrency has faced. The block subsidy is fixed in BTC value and is more-or-less also fixed in rate of time, so the daily BTC income from it is about constant for miners. The USD value of the reward, however, is dependent on the asset’s spot price, which is indeed variable. The earlier bull run resulted in the Puell Multiple rising above the 1 mark as miner revenue from block subsidy surged. Similarly, the market downturn has led to a decline in the USD miner income. Today, the metric’s value is 0.67, meaning that the chain validators are making just 67% of the average revenue from the last 365 days. Historically, miners being under a high amount of pressure has made bottoms more probable for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New ‘Line In The Sand’ May Be $82,000, Not $56,000: Analyst As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, the major bottoms since 2015 have generally formed when the Puell Multiple has dipped below 0.50. If the current cycle is also going to follow a similar pattern, then miner pain may not be enough for a bottom yet. BTC Price The latest rebound in the Bitcoin price has sustained for now as its price is still trading around $91,600. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed how the Bitcoin price often forms local bottoms when this holder group shows capitulation. Bitcoin STHs Are Currently Participating In Mild Loss Realization In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about how short-term price action is often dictated by the top buyers’ reaction to post-ATH drawdowns. As the price slides down, these holders quickly get into losses and can become prone to making panic moves. Related Reading: Altseason Things: Ethereum Perps Volume Sets New Record Against Bitcoin Bitcoin is currently in such a phase, with a notable amount of supply having a cost basis in the zone between the latest spot price and $120,000, as the below chart shows. The indicator in the graph is the Cost Basis Distribution, which tells us, as its name suggests, how much of the BTC supply last changed hands at the various price levels. From the metric’s data, it’s apparent that investors have slowly been building up a dense supply cluster below $120,000 as the asset has been trading inside the range since early July. The recent Bitcoin price plunge naturally put these investors underwater, so the question is: how have these holders been reacting? An indicator that can help shed light on the matter is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). This metric compares the amount of profit and loss that the investors as a whole are realizing on the network. When the value of the SOPR is greater than 1, it means the average holder is selling their coins at a profit. On the other hand, it being below the threshold suggests loss-taking is dominant on the network. In the current discussion, the SOPR of the entire market isn’t of interest, but rather that of a specific part of it: the top buyers. These would be the investors who got into the cryptocurrency over the last three months. Here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SOPR for the investor cohorts falling in this age range: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin SOPR has dropped for all three of 1 day to 1 week, 1 week to 1 month, and 1 month to 3 months groups following the price decline. The indicator is now floating between 0.96 to 1.01 across these cohorts, indicating these investors have started selling at a mild loss. “If pressure builds, local bottoms often form when this group capitulates, typically when SOPR drops below ~0.9,” notes Glassnode. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Volume Signal Nailed The Top & Bottom: Analytics Firm For now, though, it seems Bitcoin may not have to wait for this capitulation signal, as its price has seen a rebound in the past day. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $116,000, down 2% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain analytics firm Santiment has revealed how the two largest spikes in trading volume coincided with recent buying and selling windows for Bitcoin. Trading Volume May Signal Tops & Bottoms For Bitcoin In a new post on X, Santiment has talked about a pattern associated with the trading volume of Bitcoin. The “trading volume” here refers to a metric that keeps track of the total amount of the cryptocurrency that’s becoming involved in trading activities on the various centralized exchanges. When the value of this metric is high, it means the traders are making a large number of moves on the market. Such a trend suggests interest in the asset is high. On the other hand, the indicator having a low value implies investors may not be paying much attention to the cryptocurrency as they are participating in a low amount of activity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Fear Is Back: Traders Flip As Price Plunges To $113,000 Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the trading volume for Bitcoin and other top coins in the sector over the last few months: In the above graph, Santiment has highlighted two large spikes in the trading volume of Bitcoin. The first of these, involving a movement of $84.08 billion in the asset, occurred at the start of April. Interestingly, this spike coincided with BTC’s tariff-driven dip. The other spike took place just earlier this month and saw the indicator hit a high of $90.90 billion. This time, the elevated trading volume came alongside BTC’s new all-time high (ATH) above the $124,000 level. “Note that the two largest volume spikes from Bitcoin signaled the optimal time to buy (as prices were falling) and sell (as prices peaked to a new ATH),” explains the analytics firm. What could be the explanation behind the pattern? Generally, the higher the trading activity, the more likely BTC is to observe some kind of volatility. This is because the moves being made by investors act as fuel for price moves. Where the emerging volatility may lead the asset is hard to say based on the trading volume data alone, as it doesn’t separate between buying and selling moves. Spikes that come near price lows, however, can be signs of buying. This is what happened in April. Similarly, a particularly sharp uptick in activity after rallies, like the one seen earlier in the month, can be a sign of profit-taking. Related Reading: Dogecoin Coils Up: Triangle Break Could Spark 40% Move, Analyst Says At present, Bitcoin trading volume remains elevated, but its current value of $66 billion is clearly still a step below the levels seen during the aforementioned turnarounds. BTC Price Bitcoin has been facing sustained bearish momentum recently as its price has gradually been sliding down, with its latest value coming at $113,000. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com