Bitcoin price today is trading in the $85,000–$86,000 range at press time, pulling back sharply from recent highs. The price currently sits near $85,654, down around 4%–7% in the past 24 hours. Earlier in the session, Bitcoin briefly climbed close to $89,948 before reversing, underlining the increase in short-term volatility. As prices cool, long-time Bitcoin …
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets have witnessed a sharp retrace during the last 24 hours, which has resulted in a long squeeze on derivatives exchanges. Crypto Long Liquidations Have Neared $600 Million During The Past Day According to data from CoinGlass, the latest sharp price action in the cryptocurrency market has accompanied a huge amount of liquidations over at the derivatives side of the sector. Related Reading: US Bitcoin Session Leads December Returns After Weak November “Liquidation” here naturally refers to the forceful closure that any open contract has to undergo after it has amassed losses of a certain degree. For long investors, this happens when the asset’s price drops, while for shorts, liquidation occurs after a surge. How much the cryptocurrency will have to move in one direction to liquidate a specific position comes down to the percentage threshold defined by the platform and the amount of leverage that the trader has opted for. During sharp price swings, positions with high amounts of leverage attached are the first to go. Bitcoin and other assets have faced some notable volatility during the past day, which has once again caught out traders on the derivatives market. As the table below shows, liquidations have crossed $650 million over the last 24 hours. About $584 million of these liquidations involved long positions alone. That’s equivalent to almost 90% of the total, showcasing how disproportionate the price volatility has been during this period. In terms of the individual symbols, the largest contributor to the liquidation event has been Ethereum, not Bitcoin, as is often the case. With over $235 million in contracts involved, Ethereum has notably outpaced Bitcoin, which has witnessed $186 million in liquidations. ETH facing more liquidations is likely due to the fact that its price drawdown has been stronger during the past day. Out of the altcoins, Solana has come out on top with $37 million in positions flushed, ahead of XRP ($16 million) and Dogecoin ($12 million). Interestingly, SOL has outperformed the two despite its losses being more limited. In some other news, the latest Bitcoin decline has meant that its price has fallen back under a key on-chain price level, as the chart shared by analytics firm Glassnode shows. The level in question is the Active Realized Price, corresponding to the cost basis of the active participants on the Bitcoin network. Currently, it’s located at $87,900, which is above the cryptocurrency’s spot price. Related Reading: Cardano SuperTrend Turns Bearish—Last Signal Preceded 80% ADA Drop Thus, it would appear that the latest dip has put the active investors as a whole into a state of net unrealized loss. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $87,200, down more than 3% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CoinGlass.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price declined further and traded below the $87,000 support zone. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to clear the $89,350 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $87,500 zone. The price is trading below $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $88,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it settles above the $89,350 zone. Bitcoin Price Consolidates Losses Bitcoin price struggled to stay above the $89,000 and $88,500 levels. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $88,000 support. The price even spiked below the $86,500 support. However, the bulls were active near the $85,000 zone. A low was formed at $85,151 and the price recently started an upside correction. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low. The bears are active near $89,000. Bitcoin is now trading below $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls remain in action, the price could attempt more gains. Immediate resistance is near the $88,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $88,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $88,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next resistance could be $89,350 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low. A close above the $89,350 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $90,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $91,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $92,000 and $92,500. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $88,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $87,000 level. The first major support is near the $86,500 level. The next support is now near the $85,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $85,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $83,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now near the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $85,500, followed by $85,500. Major Resistance Levels – $88,500 and $89,350.
Michael Arrington, the founder of TechCrunch and CrunchBase, has placed XRP among his largest personal crypto holdings, according to a recent social post. Related Reading: Ethereum Meets Wall Street: JPMorgan Rolls Out Tokenized Fund He listed XRP as one of his top five positions by dollar value, alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Immutable. The disclosure landed plenty of attention online and reignited debate about who is buying what and why. Arrington’s Holdings And Community Reaction Reports have disclosed that his post drew heavy engagement, with replies running the gamut from Bitcoin-only stances to more mixed portfolios. Several industry figures echoed Arrington’s mix; Tony Edward, for example, listed XRP with BTC and ETH when discussing core positions. The debate was loud and fast on social feeds. Some users framed the move as a vote of confidence. Others warned that one investor’s choices do not equal a market-wide shift. Tell me your top five crypto holdings (by total dollar value). Mine are XRP, BTC, ETH and IMX — Michael Arrington ????☠️ (@arrington) December 13, 2025 Institutional Moves Follow Based on reports, Arrington’s public support is tied to direct institutional activity. In October, Arrington Capital joined Ripple and SBI Holdings to back an initiative by Evernorth aimed at building a large institutional XRP treasury. The project, which has been described in some circles as among the biggest of its kind, aims to increase institutional use of XRP and to support on-ledger activity such as decentralized finance and lending. That involvement means Arrington is more than a vocal supporter; he is also tied to projects that could change how institutions use the token. XRP Market Moves And Key Figures XRP’s market picture has been mixed. As of December 16, 2025, the token was trading around $1.98, having held in a roughly $2.00 to $2.20 band in recent sessions. There was a small daily lift of about 1.2% to roughly $2.08 on Monday, which helped the token cover some ground after early-December weakness. The year has seen bigger swings: XRP peaked near $3.65 in July before giving back some gains. Activity in regulated derivatives has also grown. Reports point to XRP futures on the CME reaching a record open interest of roughly $3 billion in late October 2025, a figure that market watchers say reflects rising institutional appetite for regulated exposure. Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin’s Cycle Is Intact, Yet No Longer Purely Market-Driven A Past Claim That No Longer Holds Arrington has previously highlighted XRP’s strong performance. In March, he tweeted that XRP had been the best-performing major asset across multiple time frames — 90 days, 180 days, one year and three years. That claim no longer lines up with current rankings. Performance metrics have shifted since then, and the statement has been overtaken by later results. Featured image from Bitpanda Blog, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to regain momentum in the market, failing to surpass its nearest resistance level of $94,000 for over a month. The cryptocurrency is currently trading within a broad range between $85,000 and $93,000, leading to growing concerns about further price corrections in the upcoming months. Amid this uncertainty, market expert NoLimit recently expressed on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that he anticipates Bitcoin could bottom out at around $40,000 sometime in 2026. This forecast implies a significant 54% decline from current levels, which are just above $87,860. A Historical Perspective On Market Cycles NoLimit’s analysis outlines several reasons for this predicted downturn. He points out that Bitcoin has a historical tendency to surprise investors, often when confidence in the market is high. While each price cycle may appear unique on the surface, NoLimit argues that the underlying mechanics remain largely unchanged. He emphasizes the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, noting that it moves within a four-year cycle influenced by liquidity, leverage, and human behavior rather than mere sentiment. According to him, the market is currently late in this cycle, and Bitcoin has consistently followed a three-step process during past upward movements. Related Reading: XRP Price Forecast: Key Factors That Could Propel It To $3 In Early 2026 First, Bitcoin tends to surge in price following the Halving event. This is typically followed by an influx of maximum leverage and late-stage buyers. Finally, the cycle concludes with a sharp and often chaotic reset before the next significant price expansion occurs. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced steep declines during these resets, such as an approximate 85% drop in 2013-2014, an 84% drop in 2017-2018, and a 77% drop during the 2021-2022 cycle. In each scenario, investors were convinced that the conditions were different, yet the outcomes remained consistent. $40,000 As Foundation For Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Considering the current market situation, NoLimit highlights several critical indicators. He notes that Bitcoin has already seen substantial price appreciation, with institutional interest and exchange-trade fund (ETF) approvals now part of the landscape. He also observes that many traders are over-leveraged, market volatility is compressed, and there exists widespread hope for further price increases. These factors often signal a heightened risk of downside movement in the market. Related Reading: Will Bitcoin Suffer A 20% Decline After Japan’s Rate Hike? Historical Patterns Suggest So A potential drop toward the $40,000 range should not be viewed as an unforeseen disaster, according to NoLimit. He argues that significant price declines have historically preceded major upward movements. Additionally, this price target aligns well with several technical indicators, including previous resistance levels that have turned into support, long-term moving averages, and the liquidity gap created by ETF approvals. Such factors suggest that a move toward this region could exhaust forced sellers and provide a solid foundation for recovery. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
According to a Grayscale outlook released Monday, the asset manager expects rising demand for alternatives and clearer rules in the US to push Bitcoin to a new all-time high in the first half of 2026. Related Reading: Ethereum Meets Wall Street: JPMorgan Rolls Out Tokenized Fund The report lays out 10 key investing themes for 2026 and ties the Bitcoin call to two main forces: growing portfolio demand for stores of value and what Grayscale describes as improving regulatory clarity. Spot-Bitcoin ETPs reached the market in 2024, the firm notes, and Congress passed the GENIUS Act in 2025, steps that the report says reduce barriers for big investors. Macro Risks And Demand For Crypto Grayscale frames its outlook around a simple macro point. Rising public debt and the risk that fiat currencies lose buying power are pushing some money toward Bitcoin and Ether, the report says. That argument will sound familiar to many institutional buyers. It is also a broad claim. No exact price targets were offered for Bitcoin, only a view that valuations will climb in 2026 and that the so-called four-year cycle may be ending. Stablecoins are another major theme. Grayscale expects stablecoin use to grow: cross-border payments, collateral on derivatives, even use on corporate balance sheets are all mentioned as likely developments. Asset Tokenization And DeFi Growth Reports have disclosed that Grayscale sees asset tokenization reaching an inflection point next year. Lending protocols and staking are singled out as areas where activity could expand. The firm foresees practical outcomes: stablecoins in payment rails, more institutional access to staking, and tokenized assets showing up in trading and custody systems. Grayscale also flags two narratives it does not expect to move markets in 2026 — quantum computing risk for crypto and digital asset treasuries — saying research will continue but valuations are unlikely to be affected this soon. Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin’s Cycle Is Intact, Yet No Longer Purely Market-Driven Over the past 3 months, the average return across nearly all crypto sectors has underperformed Bitcoin. This persistent relative weakness highlights a market environment where capital concentration favours BTC. ???? https://t.co/rFisuVfSY7 https://t.co/lpXqEe9bbW pic.twitter.com/WNtKEKclX7 — glassnode (@glassnode) December 16, 2025 Onchain Data Suggests Quiet Caution Meanwhile, data from onchain analytics group Glassnode was also cited in this context. Over the last three months, Glassnode reports, the average return across most crypto sectors has underperformed Bitcoin, indicating capital concentration in BTC. That has not translated into strong faith in leadership. A separate institutional feed, Bitcoin Vector, said dominance fell in the second half of the year, with ETH rotations cutting into BTC’s lead and a weaker rebuild after deleveraging events. In short: funds appear to prefer holding Bitcoin, but are not placing big new bets. Featured image from YourStory, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has retraced to the $85,000 level, a critical support zone that bulls must defend to prevent a deeper breakdown. After failing to reclaim higher levels, price action has slowed and volatility has compressed, reinforcing a market environment dominated by apathy and fear. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin’s Quiet Price Action May Be ‘Dangerous’ – IFP Signals Rising Structural Risk Sentiment across the crypto space has deteriorated sharply, with a growing number of analysts openly discussing the possibility of a prolonged bear market extending into next year. In this context, understanding who is actually selling becomes far more important than the price move itself. According to a recent CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin’s pullback from the ~$88.2K region toward ~$85K provides a clean on-chain read of market behavior beneath the surface. Exchange inflow data segmented by Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH) shows that the decline was not driven by structural distribution from long-term investors. Historically, bear markets accelerate when long-term holders begin distributing supply. The absence of that behavior suggests the current drawdown reflects positioning adjustments and risk reduction rather than a collapse in long-term conviction. As Bitcoin tests $85K, the market is not only evaluating price support levels. Short-Term Profit-Taking, Not Structural Distribution The CryptoQuant report by Crazzyblockk provides a precise breakdown of who actually drove Bitcoin’s recent pullback. On December 15, when BTC traded near the $88.2K level, Short-Term Holders sent approximately 24.7K BTC to exchanges. Crucially, 86.8% of this supply was realized in profit, while only 13.2% was sold at a loss. In dollar terms, profitable STH inflows exceeded $1.89 billion, vastly outweighing loss-driven selling. This profile clearly indicates that sellers were primarily near-term buyers exiting from strength, rather than panicked participants capitulating under stress. As the price moved lower on December 16 toward the $86K area, total STH inflows dropped sharply to just 3.9K BTC. Although this smaller flow was realized at a loss, its limited size signals exhaustion rather than an acceleration of selling pressure. While the percentage of loss realization increased, the absolute volume did not—an important nuance often overlooked in surface-level market analysis. Long-Term Holder behavior reinforces this constructive interpretation. Across both days, LTH inflows remained muted, falling from roughly 326 BTC to just 50 BTC. There is no sign of capitulation or meaningful distribution from this cohort. Overall, the data shows a market cooling through short-term profit-taking, not breaking through structural sell pressure. Related Reading: Market Stress Continues As Bitcoin STH SOPR Dips Below 1– When Will The Pain End? Bitcoin Weekly Price Structure and Key Support Dynamics Bitcoin has retraced sharply from its cycle highs and is now consolidating around the $85K–$88K zone. This area is technically significant. Price is currently interacting with the rising 100-week moving average, which has acted as dynamic support throughout the broader uptrend since 2023. So far, buyers are attempting to defend this level, preventing a deeper weekly close below it. Structurally, the market has shifted from strong impulsive expansion into a corrective phase. The loss of the 50-week moving average earlier in the pullback signaled a transition from momentum-driven price discovery to consolidation and mean reversion. However, the longer-term trend remains intact as long as Bitcoin holds above the 200-week moving average, currently well below the price. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades Near Whales’ Cost Basis For The Fourth Time Since 2021 – Historic Test Volume has declined during the retracement, suggesting that selling pressure is not accelerating aggressively. This supports the view that the move is corrective rather than distributive. From a risk perspective, failure to hold the $85K region would open the door to a deeper retrace toward the low-$70K range. Conversely, reclaiming the $90K–$92K zone would be required to restore bullish structure and momentum on the weekly timeframe. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The yen carry trade unwind has been hovering over markets lately — the kind of “plumbing” story that most people ignore right up until volatility spikes and everything suddenly feels connected. Graham Stephan put it into a Bitcoin and crypto-friendly frame yesterday. In a Dec. 15 post, the popular YouTuber described the yen carry trade as Wall Street’s long-running “infinite money glitch” — and argued it’s breaking down just as the Fed is signaling a shift in its outlook for next year. “Wall Street found an ‘infinite money’ glitch 20 years ago. They called it the Yen Carry Trade. It just broke, right when the Fed announced its plans for next year,” Stephan wrote. What The Yen Carry Trade Unwind Means For Bitcoin He presented it as a straightforward trade that scaled because the size was big enough to matter. “For decades, the ‘Yen Carry Trade’ has been the secret engine behind global liquidity. The mechanics were simple enough that a child could understand them, but profitable enough to move trillions of dollars.” Related Reading: Market Stress Continues As Bitcoin STH SOPR Dips Below 1– When Will The Pain End? Stephan then laid out the basic steps in plain English: borrow cheaply in Japan, rotate into higher-yield US assets, keep the spread. “Borrow Cheap: Investors borrowed money in Japan, where interest rates were effectively 0%… Invest Abroad: They took that ‘free money’ and bought US Treasuries paying 4-5%… Profit: They pocketed the difference without using any of their own money.” His argument is that the setup turns toxic when the rate differential compresses and the currency leg moves the wrong way. He framed the timing as especially awkward for risk assets: Japan tightening to support the yen while the Fed eases. “Japan is finally raising rates to save its own currency right at the time when the Fed has started slashing rates. The gap between the rates is getting squeezed. The ‘free money’ isn’t free anymore.” From there, he leaned into the mechanical consequence: when funding gets more expensive and the currency shifts, leveraged positions don’t get a long debate window — they get cut. “As Japanese rates rise, that trade flips. Investors are now being forced to sell their US assets to pay back their Yen loans. Instead of money flowing into the US markets, it is being sucked out to pay debts in Tokyo. This is a massive liquidity drain happening right under our noses.” That’s also where his Bitcoin read comes in. Not “Bitcoin is broken,” but that Bitcoin is where risk appetite and leverage tend to show up early — and where forced selling can look brutal when it hits. Stephan expanded on the same theme in a Substack post, pulling the Fed into the timeline more directly and warning readers to brace for turbulence. “You better get ready for a bumpy ride,” he wrote, claiming the Fed cut rates “for the third time this year,” and that the central bank “has officially ended ‘Quantitative Tightening’ and is quietly moving back toward printing money.” Related Reading: US Bitcoin Session Leads December Returns After Weak November He added a “pilot flying blind” angle as well, arguing the Fed cut “without any inflation data whatsoever” due to shutdown-related disruptions. He attached a specific interpretation of balance-sheet policy, too: “Finally, the most important news of the day: Quantitative Tightening (QT) is over… They even announced they will buy $40 billion of Treasuries over the next 30 days. The tightening era is dead. The ‘stimulus’ era is now being rebooted, and the money printer is being turned on.” Taken together, his thesis ends up with Bitcoin sitting between two forces that don’t necessarily move on the same clock: a potentially sharp deleveraging impulse from carry unwinds, and a slower easing impulse if policy conditions loosen. One can hit price violently in a short window; the other can take time to express itself cleanly. Stephan closed with a familiar Bitcoin-with-training-wheels framing: volatility is normal, drawdowns happen, and mining economics create a reference point. “Bitcoin isn’t broken. It’s just volatile, and this isn’t the first time this is happening. Statistically, Bitcoin has seen drastic crashes of 50% or more, but it has never dropped below its “electrical cost” (the cost to mine one coin), which sits around $71,000 today. If we get close to that number, history suggests it’s a strong buy zone,” he concluded. At press time, BTC traded at $87,082. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
President Donald J. Trump has announced that he will deliver an address to the nation tomorrow night at 9:00 PM EST, live from the White House. The announcement has already sparked speculation across financial markets, especially in crypto. Analysts say the speech could act as a short-term catalyst, with markets likely to react sharply depending …
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
According to reports, Coinbase has launched regulated futures linked to Shiba Inu, opening the token to trading on a US derivatives venue. Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin’s Cycle Is Intact, Yet No Longer Purely Market-Driven The new products include perpetual-style contracts and monthly futures tied to what Coinbase calls the 1k SHIB index (a 1,000 token index), with trading scheduled to run 24/7. The rollout began on December 5, 2025, as part of a broader push by the exchange to add altcoin derivative listings under US rules. Regulated Futures Hit The Market Reports have disclosed that the perpetual contracts operate like offshore swaps in form but are offered through Coinbase’s regulated platform and are designed to include a funding-rate mechanism to keep prices close to spot. Now live: Trade US Perpetual-Style Futures for all altcoins on Coinbase Derivatives, available 24/7. → Shiba Inu $SHIB → Avalanche $AVAX → Bitcoin Cash $BCH → Cardano $ADA → Chainlink $LINK → Dogecoin $DOGE → Hedera $HBAR → Litecoin $LTC → Polkadot $DOT → SUI $SUI →… pic.twitter.com/yjS2XsQ2jN — Coinbase Markets ????️ (@CoinbaseMarkets) December 15, 2025 Monthly contracts were made available as an initial phase. Clearing and settlement are handled inside systems compatible with US oversight, and the products are described as compliant with Commodity Futures Trading Commission frameworks. What Traders And Institutions Might Do Market participants say having regulated futures can change who trades a token. Institutional desks and some large funds often need regulated venues and clearer custody paths before they increase exposure. Added liquidity and round-the-clock pricing may attract more active traders, and that could raise volume. At the same time, access to futures also makes it easier to bet against the token, which can push volatility up. Reports note that immediate moves in spot markets have been mixed, showing that access to derivatives does not automatically lift the token’s price. Because SHIB has regulated futures on Coinbase (“1k Shib Index”), it qualifies for spot ETF consideration under the same SEC pathway Bitcoin and Ethereum followed. The big picture for SHIB •SHIB now joins the “ETF-watchlist club” with other futures-backed cryptos. •If/when… pic.twitter.com/cZPxUWWhBn — ???????????????????? (@LucieSHIB) September 18, 2025 Market Context And Exchange Strategy Coinbase’s decision follows steps the exchange has taken to grow its derivatives arm. Company filings and public letters in 2025 framed derivatives growth as a strategic priority, and the firm has pursued deals and product launches to expand those capabilities. Related Reading: Ethereum Meets Wall Street: JPMorgan Rolls Out Tokenized Fund One notable deal disclosed earlier involved an agreement valued at close to $3 billion to strengthen derivatives know-how and infrastructure. This background helps explain why Coinbase is offering altcoin futures that trade continuously, under a regulated roof. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
American Bitcoin ranks among the top 20 BTC treasury firms, holding 5,098 Bitcoin and unveiling new share-based exposure metrics.
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Bitcoin whale accumulation surged as major holders acquired 54,000 BTC worth $4.66B in a week, the fastest pace since 2012.
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The Bitcoin sell-off has yet again intensified as the US has just released its unemployment data, which has hit hard. The latest reading came in at 4.5%, the highest since November 2021, a level historically associated with the early phases of monetary easing cycles. Those cycles have usually preceded Bitcoin’s strongest rallies. It would be …
The crypto market is under strong selling pressure, and prices continue to fall. Bitcoin is now testing an important support level, while new data from liquidation heat maps shows fresh downside targets. At the same time, Ethereum is close to flashing a short-term signal, and XRP looks weak on higher time frames. Stock Market Weakness …
Bitcoin and Ethereum are entering one of their most critical phases of the year after a sharp market-wide pullback sent BTC briefly below $86,000, shaking out overleveraged traders and resetting sentiment across major assets. Despite the volatility, both cryptocurrencies are now coiling near major breakout levels—Bitcoin price is edging toward the long-anticipated $100,000 mark, and …
Hougan also expects bitcoin to show lower volatility and falling correlation with stocks, creating a favorable "trifecta" for investors.
Data shows Bitcoin has witnessed a notable amount of gains during the US trading session in December so far, a shift compared to the November trend. Bitcoin Has Performed The Best During US Trading Session This Month As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the American trading session has flipped for Bitcoin in December. Below is the chart shared by Maartunn, which compares the returns that BTC has achieved across the different trading sessions over the past month. The trading sessions here have been divided based on when investors of a major market are typically active. Bitcoin and other blockchain-based assets run 24/7, so there naturally isn’t ever a time in any timezone where trading is inactive. However, investors do still tend to trade more actively during their daytime, which is what these sessions are based on. From the chart, it’s visible that cumulative Bitcoin returns were negative for the American trading session during the last couple of weeks of November. Europe and Asia-Pacific didn’t perform much better, but they at least saw close to neutral returns. Related Reading: Cardano SuperTrend Turns Bearish—Last Signal Preceded 80% ADA Drop Toward the end of November, though, a shift began to take shape, with returns during US hours going up. And in this month of December so far, the trading session has pulled away from the rest, with cumulative returns sitting at a positive 8%. In contrast, Europe and Asia-Pacific have the metric at a level of around -4% or lower. Thus, if the cumulative returns during these sessions are anything to go by, it would appear that American investors have been participating in Bitcoin accumulation this month, while the others have been distributing or simply, not buying. In some other news, the Bitcoin selloff last month caused a key on-chain indicator to go through its largest negative change in years, as quant Frank has pointed out in an X post. The metric displayed in the chart is the Realized Price of the Bitcoin short-term holders. This indicator measures the average cost basis of investors on the BTC network. The version listed in the graph specifically tracks the cost basis of short-term holders (STHs), entities who entered the market over the last 155 days. As is visible in the chart, the Bitcoin STH Realized Price saw a notable decline alongside the price crash in the cryptocurrency during November. This suggests investors who bought at higher levels panic capitulated, repricing their coins to the lower post-plunge levels. Related Reading: XRP Mildly Undervalued On MVRV: What About Bitcoin, Ethereum? This capitulation was so strong that the STH Realized Price saw its largest red 7-day change since the FTX crash back in November 2022. BTC Price Bitcoin has witnessed bearish price action during the past day as its price has come down to $85,800 following a drop of about 3.5%. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 4% drop, falling below the $86,000 mark on Monday, as market speculation grows regarding the cryptocurrency’s future following the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) interest rate decision. In a recent poll conducted from December 2 to 9, an overwhelming 90% of economists—63 out of 70—predicted that the BOJ would increase short-term interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% at this week’s planned meeting. Experts Warn Of Impact From BOJ Rate Hikes Experts on social media have noted a concerning trend: during the last three rate hikes by the BOJ, Bitcoin has typically dropped significantly. The statistics reveal the following declines: a 23% drop in March 2024, a 26% decline in July 2024, and a 31% dip in January of this year. Related Reading: Why XRP Isn’t Reacting to Major Institutional and Regional Developments Based on current prices just below $86,000, this would imply that if the cryptocurrency sees another 20% correction, it could drop all the way to 68,800. This would mean extending the gap compared to the all-time high of $126,000 by almost 46%. The group of experts further highlighted that the dynamics at play in Japan significantly impact Bitcoin’s performance as Japan holds the largest amount of US debt of any nation. When Japanese interest rates rise, capital tends to flow back to Japan, leading to reduced liquidity in dollars. This decrease in dollar liquidity often results in the selling of riskier assets like Bitcoin. On November 30, a foreboding sign of this potential downturn appeared when confirmation of Japan’s impending rate hike caused Bitcoin to dip to around $83,000, erasing approximately $200 billion from the overall cryptocurrency market. However, the bearish sentiment affecting Bitcoin is not solely the result of Japan’s actions. Market analyst known as NoLimit recently pointed to another critical factor: China’s renewed crackdown on Bitcoin mining. China’s Mining Crackdown Spurs Bitcoin Sell-Off The analyst recently asserted that China has tightened regulations, particularly affecting operations in Xinjiang, where a significant number of crypto mining setups were shut down in December. This led to the abrupt offline status of roughly 400,000 miners. The repercussions of such a sudden shift in mining activity are already evident. The Bitcoin network hashrate has fallen by about 8%, indicating that fewer miners are actively contributing to the network. NoLimit suggests that this sudden reduction creates immediate revenue-loss for miners, who may need to liquidate Bitcoin to cover operational costs or to relocate their equipment. Consequently, this generates actual selling pressure on the market, contributing to the downward price trend seen on Monday. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Compression Deepens as Analysts Debate if the Next Move Is a Rally or Breakdown Despite the short-term pain this creates, the analysts clarified that it does not indicate a long-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Instead, he views it as a temporary supply shock driven by regulatory decisions rather than a shift in demand. Historical patterns support this notion: when China has previously cracked down on miners, the cycle follows a familiar trajectory: miners are forced offline, hashrate dips occur, prices fluctuate, and eventually, the network adapts before Bitcoin moves forward again. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
JPMorgan Asset Management has introduced a tokenized money-market fund built on the Ethereum blockchain, according to company filings and industry reports. The fund, called My OnChain Net Yield Fund (MONY), issues shares as digital tokens that live on the public Ethereum network and are aimed at qualified investors through the bank’s Morgan Money platform. Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin’s Cycle Is Intact, Yet No Longer Purely Market-Driven JPMorgan Issues Tokenized Fund On Ethereum Based on reports, MONY holds familiar, low-risk instruments such as US Treasury securities and repurchase agreements fully backed by Treasuries. The bank says the token shares represent direct ownership of the fund and can be held at blockchain addresses, opening up on-chain settlement and recordkeeping for a product that normally sits in traditional custody systems. Seeded With $100 Million Reports have disclosed that JPMorgan seeded MONY with $100 million of its own capital at launch. The move is meant to kickstart liquidity and show institutional seriousness about putting cash management products on-chain. The tokenization work is being handled by internal teams tied to JPMorgan’s digital-assets efforts, and the bank has been testing ways to move conventional securities into token form for several years. How The Tokens Work And Who Can Use Them Investors receive tokenized fund shares that may be transferred or recorded on Ethereum. Based on reports, access is limited: the fund is offered only to qualified clients via Morgan Money, not to the general retail public. The token structure mirrors traditional fund economics — holders are exposed to the same short-term instruments that underpin money-market products — but the record of ownership is stored on a public ledger. Related Reading: Bitcoin Headed For $200 Trillion? CEO Makes Bold Prediction Qualified Investors And Access According to coverage, institutional clients with asset levels above $25 million and accredited individuals with at least $5 million are among those eligible, and the minimum initial investment sits at roughly $1 million. That narrow access aligns with regulatory guardrails for tokenized securities and with the bank’s goal of serving big, sophisticated cash managers first. Analysts say the launch is part of a broader push by big asset managers to experiment with tokenized share classes and on-chain settlement. Other firms have run pilots with similar ideas, and some have already put cash-like products on Ethereum. Based on reports, the move points to an industry desire to test whether blockchain can speed up settlement, increase transparency, or create new on-chain liquidity for institutional cash flows. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin dropped 4.4% in the past 24 hours to $85,617 on Monday evening, and Ethereum slipped 6.5% to $2,915.
The cryptocurrency market fell sharply on Monday, losing around $136 billion in value in a few hours as Bitcoin dropped below a crucial price level and leveraged trades were forced to close. The total crypto market capitalization fell about 3.7% to $2.93 trillion, according to market data. Bitcoin Leads Declines Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, …
Bitcoin price corrected gains and traded below the $88,000 support zone. BTC is now consolidating and might struggle to clear the $88,500 zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline from the $90,500 zone. The price is trading below $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $89,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it settles above the $85,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to gain strength for a move above the $90,000 and $90,500 levels. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $88,500 support. The price even spiked below the $87,000 support. However, the bulls were active near the $85,000 zone. A low was formed at $85,151 and the price is consolidating gains below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $93,560 swing high to the $85,151 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls remain in action, the price could attempt another increase. Immediate resistance is near the $87,150 level. The first key resistance is near the $87,500 level. The next resistance could be $88,000. A close above the $88,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $89,000 resistance. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $89,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Any more gains might send the price toward the $90,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $91,000 and $91,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $87,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $85,500 level. The first major support is near the $85,000 level. The next support is now near the $83,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $82,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $80,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $85,500, followed by $85,000. Major Resistance Levels – $88,000 and $89,000.
Bitcoin risks a further drop toward the $70,000 area if the Bank of Japan follows through with an expected interest-rate rise on Dec. 19, analysts focused on macro forces warned. Related Reading: Analyst: Bitcoin’s Cycle Is Intact, Yet No Longer Purely Market-Driven According to multiple macro-focused voices, the move could sap global liquidity and put fresh downward pressure on risk assets, with some traders already bracing for a sharp pullback. Japan’s policy shift matters because higher rates tend to strengthen the yen and raise the cost of borrowing. When that happens, traders who previously borrowed cheaply in yen to invest elsewhere are often forced to unwind those positions. That process can pull money out of global markets in a short period of time, and Bitcoin has often felt that impact as investors cut exposure during risk-off stretches. BOJ Tightening Drains Global Liquidity According to AndrewBTC, every BOJ hike since 2024 has coincided with Bitcoin drawdowns of more than 20%. Based on reports, the analyst pointed to declines of roughly 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025. ???? BREAKING: JAPAN WILL CRASH $BTC Bank of Japan is set to hike rates +25 bps on Dec 19. Japan = largest holder of US government debt ???????? ???? Look at the $BTC chart: Every BoJ rate hike → Bitcoin dumps over 20%+???? • March 2024 → -23% • July 2024 → -26% • January 2025 →… pic.twitter.com/grN3QRNUg4 — AndrewBTC (@cryptoctlt) December 13, 2025 Traders are not only watching central bank calendars. Bitcoin’s daily chart also flashed a classic bear flag formation after a steep fall from the $105,000–$110,000 area in November. Market Positioning Widens Ahead Of Key Data Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 in thin trading on Sunday, a move that traders took as a cautionary sign rather than a definitive trigger. Based on reports, Ether held up better than many altcoins, suggesting selective risk taking in the market. Traders are positioning before a busy slate of US data and central bank events that could sway flows. Analyst EX bluntly warned BTC will collapse “below $70,000” under the stated macro conditions, a stark forecast that highlights how crowded bets can amplify moves when liquidity is pulled. EVERY TIME JAPAN HIKES RATES, BITCOIN DUMPS 20–25% NEXT WEEK, THEY WILL HIKE RATES TO 75 BPS AGAIN. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS, $BTC WILL DUMP BELOW $70,000 ON DECEMBER 19. POSITION ACCORDINGLY. pic.twitter.com/IWU8JbXjn3 — ΞX (@rektbyEX) December 13, 2025 Related Reading: Bitcoin Pulls Back Under $89K, Michael Saylor Smells Opportunity What This Means For Investors The story tying BOJ policy to Bitcoin’s swings is simple in outline: when funding costs in Japan rise, global borrowing becomes pricier, and risk assets can be sold as positions are reduced. That dynamic helps explain why past BOJ moves lined up with 20-30% declines in Bitcoin. Still, markets often try to price events ahead of time; a hike that’s already built into prices may have a smaller effect than one that comes as a surprise. Featured image from Nikkei Asia, chart from TradingView
The move comes amid a series of product launches, including Solana support, perps trading via Hyperliquid, and a recent Polymarket rollout.
Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 level, failing to reclaim higher ground as bulls focus on defending current demand zones. After a sharp correction from recent highs, price action has entered a consolidation phase that, on the surface, appears relatively calm. Volatility has compressed, and short-term price movements suggest a market pausing rather than decisively breaking down. However, this apparent stability may be misleading. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades Near Whales’ Cost Basis For The Fourth Time Since 2021 – Historic Test According to a CryptoQuant report from XWIN Research Japan, on-chain data is signaling growing structural risk beneath the surface. The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), a metric that tracks the movement of Bitcoin between exchanges and serves as a proxy for internal market liquidity, has turned red. In such environments, price moves tend to be sharper and less orderly once direction is established. While reduced exchange balances can limit immediate selling pressure, they also amplify the impact of sudden demand or forced liquidations. This shift indicates a clear slowdown in capital circulation across trading venues, suggesting that liquidity conditions are deteriorating. Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse Signals Structural Fragility The report explains that the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) measures how actively Bitcoin moves from one exchange to another, serving as a proxy for internal market liquidity and capital circulation. When IFP is elevated, capital rotates efficiently across venues, arbitrage opportunities are quickly absorbed, and liquidity providers keep order books deep. In those conditions, price discovery is smoother, and volatility tends to remain contained. By contrast, when IFP declines, the market’s internal “blood flow” weakens. Capital becomes static, liquidity fragments, and prices grow increasingly sensitive to relatively small trades. This deterioration in liquidity is unfolding alongside historically low exchange balances. While reduced sellable supply can initially act as price support, it also creates thinner order books. Once price begins to move decisively in either direction, slippage increases and volatility accelerates. With leverage still elevated across derivatives markets, instability becomes driven less by directional conviction and more by the magnitude of forced reactions. Historically, periods when IFP turned red produced abrupt corrections and sharp price swings, not clean trends. The central risk today is therefore not aggressive distribution, but structural fragility. Until inter-exchange liquidity improves, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to sudden, outsized moves, making leveraged positioning particularly risky in the current market structure. Related Reading: XRP Whale Activity Spikes At The Bottom – A Classic Pre-Rally Signal Bitcoin Price Consolidates Below Key Moving Averages The 4-hour Bitcoin chart highlights a market locked in consolidation after a sharp corrective move. Following the aggressive sell-off in late November, BTC found a local bottom near the $82,000–$83,000 zone, where strong demand stepped in and triggered a rebound. However, that recovery quickly lost momentum, and price is now ranging below the descending cluster of moving averages. Bitcoin is currently trading around the $89,000–$90,000 level, repeatedly failing to reclaim the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour timeframe. The 50 and 100 moving averages are also sloping downward, acting as dynamic resistance and reinforcing the short-term bearish structure. Each attempt to push higher has been met with selling pressure, suggesting that bulls lack conviction at current levels. Related Reading: This Whale Isn’t Stopping: $392M Ethereum Long And A Tight Liquidation Price Revealed Volume has noticeably contracted during this consolidation phase, indicating reduced participation and indecision among traders. This typically precedes a volatility expansion, especially when price compresses beneath major resistance. Structurally, BTC remains vulnerable as long as it trades below the $92,000–$94,000 zone, which previously acted as support and now caps upside attempts. On the downside, the $87,000–$88,000 range is emerging as immediate support. A decisive breakdown below this area could reopen the path toward the $84,000 region. Until a clear breakout occurs, Bitcoin remains in a fragile balance between distribution and base-building. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Active bitcoin addresses sit at their lowest levels since Dec. 2024, when the network experienced peak activity from Ordinals and Runes spec.
The Bitcoin price outlook remains under scrutiny as market analysts assess whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency can still reach $140,000. Given BTC’s recent downturn and fluctuating price, it’s understandable that a dramatic surge to $140,000 could be viewed skeptically. However, the analyst points to global M2 Money Supply, highlighting its correlation with Bitcoin and its support for a significant upside move. New discussions have emerged in the crypto space about the relationship between the Bitcoin price action and the global M2 Money Supply. Pseudonymous crypto analyst ‘MoneyLord’ has projected a massive price surge to $140,000 for BTC based on M2 data. The analyst noted that many people are skeptical about the relevance of M2 Money Supply, likely questioning whether it still holds predictive value for Bitcoin’s performance. Global M2 Money Supply To Fuel $140,000 Bitcoin Price Surge According to MoneyLord, the recent disconnect between Bitcoin and M2 data should not be viewed as a failure of the model, but rather as a consequence of aggressive market interference and increased stress across global financial systems. In his technical report released on X, he argued that, without heavy manipulation and the collapse and insolvency of major entities, Bitcoin would have continued to track global liquidity growth. Related Reading: Is It More Profitable To Hold Bitcoin For The Short-Term? 2025 Numbers Are Here MoneyLord believes that those shocks temporarily suppressed BTC’s price expansion, likely contributing to its recent decline and slow momentum. With market conditions somewhat stabilizing, the analyst suggests that Bitcoin is poised to realign with global M2 Money Supply trends, potentially setting the stage for renewed upward momentum. From this perspective, the current phase is viewed as a delayed reaction rather than a failed cycle. MoneyLord predicts that if Bitcoin begins to catch up with M2 data, the cryptocurrency’s price could hit a target above $140,000 sooner than the market expects. The accompanying chart illustrates this bullish outlook, showing global liquidity, represented by the blue line, continuing to rise toward the projected price. With Bitcoin trading near $90,000 after a more than 6% decline this month, a rally to $140,000 would require a gain of at least 55%. Reaching this level would set a new all-time high, exceeding its present peak of over $126,000 by more than 10%. Bitcoin Shows Resilience Amid Market Sell-Offs According to crypto analyst Don, Bitcoin has bounced back after a period of sharp sell-offs that shook out many traders and triggered widespread liquidations. The analyst noted that bulls have stepped in to reclaim critical support and restore confidence in the market as BTC resumes trading within a well-defined ascending triangle pattern. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Losses From Entities Surges To 2022 Levels Following Crash Below $90,000 The chart shows that the triangle has an upper boundary near $94,324 and a lower boundary around $89,241. Price action inside the formation suggests that Bitcoin is consolidating and likely building momentum for a potential breakout. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 level, failing to reclaim key resistance as bulls attempt to defend current demand zones. Price action reflects a market under pressure, with momentum fading after a prolonged correction. From its all-time high, Bitcoin has now retraced roughly 30%, placing the asset firmly in a corrective phase where uncertainty and caution dominate trading behavior. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades Near Whales’ Cost Basis For The Fourth Time Since 2021 – Historic Test According to a report from Axel Adler, on-chain data confirms that market stress is no longer limited to price alone. Two key indicators—the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) and the P/L Block—are signaling broad loss realization among participants and a deterioration in overall market sentiment. These metrics provide insight into the behavior of short-term holders, who are often the most sensitive to price swings and macro uncertainty. Together, these signals suggest that Bitcoin remains in a fragile state, where confidence has weakened, and recovery attempts face increasing resistance. STH SOPR and P/L Block Confirm Capitulation Pressure Adler explains that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) measures whether coins held for less than 155 days are being sold at a profit or a loss. When the indicator falls below one, it signals that recent buyers are realizing losses. Currently, the 7-day moving average of STH SOPR has slipped into the red zone, with a reading near 0.99. This confirms that short-term holders are, on average, selling Bitcoin below their acquisition price—a behavior typically associated with heightened stress and emotional selling. Historically, similar SOPR conditions have marked local capitulation phases, when selling pressure peaks and weaker hands exit the market. As long as the SOPR 7-day average remains below one, short-term participants stay in “stress mode.” Adler notes that a meaningful improvement would require a sustained move back above one on a daily close, signaling that sellers have exhausted supply and buyers are once again absorbing sell-side pressure. Complementing this signal, the P/L Block indicator tracks the aggregated profit and loss state of market participants. The current red block reflects loss dominance, with a P/L Score of minus three—classified as pronounced stress. With Bitcoin down 30% from its all-time high and 30-day returns negative, both indicators align, reinforcing a clear picture of capitulation among short-term holders. Related Reading: XRP Whale Activity Spikes At The Bottom – A Classic Pre-Rally Signal Bitcoin Price Analysis: Weekly Structure Remains Critical The weekly chart shows Bitcoin trading around the $89,900 level after a sharp rejection from the $120,000–$125,000 region. Price has retraced aggressively but is now attempting to stabilize above the rising 200-week moving average (green), a level that has historically defined long-term trend validity. So far, this area is acting as dynamic support, suggesting that buyers are defending higher-cycle structure despite broader market weakness. However, Bitcoin remains below the 50-week moving average (blue), which is now sloping downward. This configuration reflects a loss of medium-term momentum and confirms that the market is still in a corrective phase rather than a resumed uptrend. The 100-week moving average (red) continues to rise well below price, reinforcing that the broader macro trend remains intact, but also highlighting how much excess was built during the prior rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Refuse to Sell: Historic Signal Emerges As Binance CDD Drops To 2017 Levels Volume has declined during the recent consolidation, signaling indecision rather than aggressive accumulation. This typically precedes a volatility expansion. From a structural perspective, holding above the $85,000–$88,000 zone is critical. A sustained breakdown below the 200-week MA would increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward the $75,000–$80,000 region. Conversely, reclaiming the 50-week MA near $95,000 would be an early signal that downside pressure is fading. Until then, Bitcoin remains range-bound, with long-term support holding but momentum still fragile. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com