Following the downturn in the United States’ traditional markets, there has been increased commentary about the crypto bull cycle and its current phase. Nonetheless, the Bitcoin market has remained relatively steady compared to the blue-chip stocks in the US equities market over the past few days. The price action of Bitcoin has been disappointing yet again this weekend, slipping below the $83,000 mark in the early hours of Saturday, April 5. A prominent crypto analyst has emerged with fresh insight on the future trajectory of the premier cryptocurrency. BTC Price At Risk Of Sales Pressure? In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. reviewed how the Bitcoin price is faring amid the turbulent macroeconomic headwinds. The relevant on-chain indicator here is the Bitcoin Sales Pressure model, which combines the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metrics. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Who Called Ethereum Price Dump Says ETH Is Now Undervalued, Time To Buy? Based on the NUPL and SOPR indicators, the Bitcoin Sales Pressure model tracks when long-term holders may begin selling off their assets, often marking cyclical tops or the start of downward pressure in the market. According to Adler Jr., genuine sales pressure for a digital asset may emerge after 800 days. The analyst noted: If, during a bullish rally, no serious negative event akin to a “Black Swan” occurs – triggering fear and forced selling – it could take over 1000 days for sales pressure to develop. As observed in the chart above, the indicator has reached the 800-day mark, which suggests an increased risk for genuine sales pressure. However, the Bitcoin price has been displaying strength despite the brewing global trade war weighing down on the US equities market. Adler Jr. attributed BTC’s show of resilience to institutional buying, the lack of sales pressure in the spot market, and neutral sentiment in the futures market. The stock market atmosphere does not seem set for recovery, especially with the VIX (volatility index) rising above 30 while the S&P 500 falling by more than 4%. Crossing these thresholds has been historically associated with further downward pressure for the stock market. In response to the dwindling market sentiment, US President Donald Trump is believed to have called on the Federal Reserve to resume aggressive monetary stimulus. “We all understand that this could stimulate market growth,” Adler Jr. added. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $83,350, reflecting an almost 1% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Is Korea Propping Up The XRP Price? Pundit Explains What’s Happening Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Over the years, investor sentiment has been one reliable way to analyze the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market. Based on recent on-chain data, an analyst has pointed out how the changing investor sentiment could affect the world’s largest cryptocurrency over the next few weeks. Can BTC Price Charge To New All-Time High? In a recent post on X, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr explained how the Bitcoin market dynamics could significantly shift in the coming weeks. This projection is based on recent changes in the “Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Nears Major Resistance At $2,200, Why A 13% Crash Could Follow The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index refers to a metric that aggregates the average sentiment of investors in the BTC market. The indicator is divided into five zones, including extreme fear, fear, neutral, greed, and extreme greed. Extreme fear signals that traders and investors are moving with high caution, while extreme greed suggests an overheating market condition with traders flooding in with new positions. Historically, periods of extreme fear have been correlated with market bottoms while price corrections usually occur during extreme greed. According to Adler Jr., the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has fallen by approximately 22 percentage points over the past two months. This decline has seen the BTC metric shift from extreme greed to a more moderate level of greed. Going further, the on-chain analyst mentioned that if the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index drops by another 10 to 15 points in the near future, the market may experience a cooling-off period where participants could have become accustomed to negative factors and emotional price movements may even subside. Adler Jr added in his post: At the current pace, it may take approximately 4 to 6 weeks for the index to drop by an additional 10–15 points. The analyst also highlighted that the 30-day (monthly) moving average appears to be reaching a local bottom, one seen at the end of the Bitcoin price correction to $54,000. The last time the Fear and Greed Index monthly SMA reached this level, the premier cryptocurrency climbed to a new all-time high price. If this historical pattern holds, investors could see the BTC price break out of its consolidation range. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC is just beneath the $84,000 level, reflecting a 0.5% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Price To $27: Why Current ‘Boredom Phase’ Could Trigger Epic Rally Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. has provided some insights on the current status of the Bitcoin (BTC) market based on the adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) indicator. Despite recent consolidation, Adler states the BTC market remains bullish with a trend reversal far from happening. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price In Trouble? Bearish Divergence That Led To Market Crash Last Cycle Returns Bitcoin Has More Room For Growth, No Euphoria Yet – Analyst The aNUPL indicator is a crypto trading metric used to assess the market sentiment and potential price movements. As the name implies, it modifies the traditional Net Unrealized Profit/Loss by considering market behavior over time, thereby determining if investors’ unrealized profits or losses are sustainable or merely speculative. According to Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s aNUPL currently stands at 0.4, indicating that investors are holding a significant amount of accumulated profit, which represents a healthy but controlled level of market optimism. Furthermore, this aNUPL shows that Bitcoin is maintaining its bullish momentum. Notably, the crypto asset has been in an uptrend since September 2024, translating into a robust bullish structure. However, in both cases, an aNUPL of 0.4 remains far from the peak levels of 0.7-0.8 recorded in the previous bull cycles in 2017 and 2021. These critical high levels represent the presence of investor euphoria/greed as evidenced by an overleveraged market. By interpretation, Adler’s market insights currently suggest that the Bitcoin market is not overheated and may likely experience further growth barring any unexpected macroeconomic development. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trades At Discount For The Past Month Signaling Selling Pressure – What This Means What Next For BTC? According to its daily trading chart, Bitcoin is currently valued at $100,824 following a 1.72% decline in the past day. The asset’s Relative Strength Index currently stands at 50.43 which shows room for higher price levels before entering the overbought zone, thus aligning with Axel Adler’s postulation. This positive projection is further supported by the 100-day simple moving average which remains well below Bitcoin’s price in a classic bullish signal. Regarding price barriers, Bitcoin faces psychological resistance at the $106,000 price region breaking past which could spur a return to its current all-time high at $109,114. However, another rejection at $106,000 would force the premier cryptocurrency to remain in a consolidation phase that has lasted over the past two weeks. In the long-term, investors retain bullish sentiments on Bitcoin driven by historical data and the crypto-friendly approach of the Donald Trump administration. Before the bull run concludes, the premier cryptocurrency is expected to trade between $150,000 – $350,000. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
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